I think what's meant to happen is for this Azores HP to weaken but push northwards and reach Greenland around Post 168 and from T+180 to give us HLB, but never quite get's there and keeps getting flattened AND pushed southwards:

 

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Yes, my thoughts too Peter.

It never ceases to amaze me how some people seem to believe they more know about the model output generally and by extension weather forecasting than the pros!

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The snidey comments at the met office from some posters in this thread is tiresome. They analyze data they have and suggest the most likely outcomes.  Some people seem to take great glee at the prospect of them being wrong when all they can do is work with the data they have.  Mid / long range forecasting is far from an exact science!

Anyway back to models and the signal for a warm up in the latter stages remains in the GFS 18z op run, it will be interesting to see if at any point this week the emphasis does start to change on the 30 dayer if all the output the met office see starts to back this up.

edit - not just me then, given the other comments made in the time it took my to type that rant on my phone  

 

 

The metoffice 15 day forecast is going to be wrong a lot of the time since it isn't possible to predict so far in advance with high skill. The met forecast will have skill, and probably a higher skill than any other meteorological agency but its still going to be low. When they say 'colder weather' they probably mean 40% chance of colder weather, 30% chance of average weather and 30% chance of mild weather.

 

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The Met Office 6-30 day forecast does not describe a winter nirvana. It says there only a low chance of very cold NE or E winds in the 6-15 day period suggesting marginal conditions and mentioning rain, sleet and snow.
The 15-30 day forecasts mentions milder interludes as well. Plus the GFS only just goes into the 15 day period but at that range is pot luck. In the more reliable timeframe it looks colder than average with a snow risk for at least a week. With these points in mind why would they change their forecast?

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A growing trend for something MUCH milder in early February now. Met Office will surely have to change this wintry 15-30 day guff soon.

 

You're doing what I use to do and take one run of one model as Gospel!

Mind you the GFS 0p run is very bullish about it turning milder!! But doesn't mean it will definitely verify? Only a day or so ago it was pulling in a ranging easterly - you may remember my posts previously and the models at FI kept flip flopping. I was actually watching Gav's weather videos and he actually said having a warm southerly or HP to the south could be a sign that things may turn colder a week after that - because sometimes the HP to our south will push northwards and before it does that it will drag up milder or warm air but the benefits of that is that we will eventually see the HLB over Greenland or Iceland - which is what we have all been waiting for ha!

But we really need to get on with this and soon because it's Feb in a few days time. I really don't want snow in March. 

Thank goodness for this potential snow on Tuesday evening for the south!!

 

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So are lrf's a bit like Brexit forecasts then - best just ignore them.

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The snidey comments at the met office from some posters in this thread is tiresome. They analyze data they have and suggest the most likely outcomes.  Some people seem to take great glee at the prospect of them being wrong when all they can do is work with the data they have.  Mid / long range forecasting is far from an exact science!

Anyway back to models and the signal for a warm up in the latter stages remains in the GFS 18z op run, it will be interesting to see if at any point this week the emphasis does start to change on the 30 dayer if all the output the met office see starts to back this up.

edit - not just me then, given the other comments made in the time it took my to type that rant on my phone  

 

 

It was the same for a time last February during the build-up to the arrival of the Beast. When the GFS and ECM op runs went through a shaky spell for a time around mid-month and showed the atlantic moving back in at the end of the month, we had a few people here saying "It's all over, surely the MetO will change their forecast now" or words to that effect. Eventually though, both the GFS and ECM runs came on board with the arrival of the Beast and as they say, the rest is history.

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The recent and continuing trend is for rather cold to cold weather with a few milder spells in between. This looks to be continuing, at least as indicated by the last few runs, and this IMO is not very out of step with the Meto forecast, but  from my perspective, it's so much better than predominantly mild weather but with the odd brief cold snap if you are lucky, that reigned almost every winter leading up to 2009.

Yes it's not 87, 91, 2010 etc, or the beast - but  I'll take it.

Lol 

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So are lrf's a bit like Brexit forecasts then - best just ignore them.

You look at the ensembles for guidance in the longer range. A bit like taking on board all the expert commentary on Brexit, where the ensemble mean says we’ll be worse off.

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18z Ensembles for London and as you can see the GFS OP and Control goes off at one and is one of the milder runs but also notice that there are several colder (freezer like -10'c or below @ 850hpa ) ensembles members creeping in from around 6th Feb:

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Yes, my thoughts too Peter.

It never ceases to amaze me how some people seem to believe they more know about the model output generally and by extension weather forecasting than the pros!

That is my go-to emoticon for “words fail me.”

Apparently we’re all wasting our time trying to stop outlandish comments on charts over two weeks ahead.

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Interesting developments on the 18z GFS P.  No significant cold to the east but no return to mild south-westerlies either based on this run!!

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At T240 on the 18z GFS P an easterly of sorts is established! Just one run on one model but hey....

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18z GFS P looks to give some weight to the cold cluster!!

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Couple of cold or freezer like charts around of -10c or below @ 850 around from T 240 on the ensembles:

Here are some around the time frame of +252:

Ensemble 02:

Ensemble 03:

 

Ensemble 06

Ensemble 07:

Some of course build the block post +252!

So all not over yet and this gives us something to cling on to for potential HLB!

 

 

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I was just looking across the channel and picked Amsterdam - because if we get an easterly then Amsterdam will get the cold before we do and it's the same story - those several (4 or 5 ensembles) that have trended at or below -10 @ 850hpa are from an easterly and the same ensemble members as what we have thus meaning that it's more likely to be an easterly and of course it has the same two milder outliers GFS Op run and Control same as London's ensembles:

 

PS - Look at ensemble P 13 just for fun:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP13EU18_360_1.png

 

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I hate to say it but I agree! Hope I am wrong and I have been thinking this as you know for days now and the Met office STILL go for cold or very cold Feb as well as other long range models like the CFSv2, EC 30 day, JMA and BCC etc. 

......... or the GFS is hopelessly wrong for the first two weeks of February. It was spot on for now ten days ago I must say, in terms of mean 850 hPa's anyway.

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I love the way that people on here that don’t conform to rules are lambasted for cherry picking charts by having cherry-pickied charts levelled at them as a “Na Na, Na Na Na”

Anyway, on to what’s being shown for Tues/Weds. IMBY nothing much of note. A possible or even probable spell of snow after the initial rain, but unlikely to wet the appetite if its settling, disruptive snow you’re after. Whether further east is a proper few inches of snow or next to nothing is still in the balance, as was ever the case with snow forecasts 

further on into Feb I have no idea. Same as everyone else, despite what they believe or tell you. What I do know is the days are lengthening out and spring is the next stop (thank ***k) - the question is how far down the line is that stop?

As a side note, I’m really enjoying scrolling through dozens of charts from a FI timeframe weeks in the future from every GEFS member four times per day. Bravo to that person. 

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I love the way that people on here that don’t conform to rules are lambasted for cherry picking charts by having cherry-pickied charts levelled at them as a “Na Na, Na Na Na”

Anyway, on to what’s being shown for Tues/Weds. IMBY nothing much of note. A possible or even probable spell of snow after the initial rain, but unlikely to wet the appetite if its settling, disruptive snow you’re after. Whether further east is a proper few inches of snow or next to nothing is still in the balance, as was ever the case with snow forecasts 

further on into Feb I have no idea. Same as everyone else, despite what they believe or tell you. What I do know is the days are lengthening out and spring is the next stop (thank ***k) - the question is how far down the line is that stop?

As a side note, I’m really enjoying scrolling through dozens of charts from a FI timeframe weeks in the future from every GEFS member four times per day. Bravo to that person. 

A Matty tour de force....

I don’t think anyone has suggested or is expecting disruptive snow on Tuesday for the south - although the Met Office have used the ‘d’ word in relation to 5-10 cm over hills.

Many of the charts offer a covering for here from Tuesday evening but I’m waiting to see how the short-range models handle this.

I’m sure you’ll be fine in Bristol unless you’re driving towards the Cotswolds.

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