Couple of cold or freezer like charts around of -10c or below @ 850 around from T 240 on the ensembles:

Here are some around the time frame of +252:

Ensemble 02:

Ensemble 03:

 

Ensemble 06

Ensemble 07:

Some of course build the block post +252!

So all not over yet and this gives us something to cling on to for potential HLB!

 

 

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I was just looking across the channel and picked Amsterdam - because if we get an easterly then Amsterdam will get the cold before we do and it's the same story - those several (4 or 5 ensembles) that have trended at or below -10 @ 850hpa are from an easterly and the same ensemble members as what we have thus meaning that it's more likely to be an easterly and of course it has the same two milder outliers GFS Op run and Control same as London's ensembles:

 

PS - Look at ensemble P 13 just for fun:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP13EU18_360_1.png

 

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......... or the GFS is hopelessly wrong for the first two weeks of February. It was spot on for now ten days ago I must say, in terms of mean 850 hPa's anyway.

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I love the way that people on here that don’t conform to rules are lambasted for cherry picking charts by having cherry-pickied charts levelled at them as a “Na Na, Na Na Na”

Anyway, on to what’s being shown for Tues/Weds. IMBY nothing much of note. A possible or even probable spell of snow after the initial rain, but unlikely to wet the appetite if its settling, disruptive snow you’re after. Whether further east is a proper few inches of snow or next to nothing is still in the balance, as was ever the case with snow forecasts 

further on into Feb I have no idea. Same as everyone else, despite what they believe or tell you. What I do know is the days are lengthening out and spring is the next stop (thank ***k) - the question is how far down the line is that stop?

As a side note, I’m really enjoying scrolling through dozens of charts from a FI timeframe weeks in the future from every GEFS member four times per day. Bravo to that person. 

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A Matty tour de force....

I don’t think anyone has suggested or is expecting disruptive snow on Tuesday for the south - although the Met Office have used the ‘d’ word in relation to 5-10 cm over hills.

Many of the charts offer a covering for here from Tuesday evening but I’m waiting to see how the short-range models handle this.

I’m sure you’ll be fine in Bristol unless you’re driving towards the Cotswolds.

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Evening Peter. Well now here’s the thing. I’ll actually be residing in the Holiday Inn Huntingdon Racecourse. I’ll be spending a lot of time in that region now for business requirements as a director now. That’s not a thinly veiled brag, it’s just a brag to be honest. 

Fingers crossed for some white stuff

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At last a week of "ordinary" wintry weather to look forward to with the chance of some snow and night time frosts at various time throughout the coming week.

On a side note can the crystal ballers / mystic megs keep the "they know more then the met office" to the media thread please.

The hurricane is back by the way on the 18Z.

Not as dramatic as the 0Z but still. Wonder what's causing the model to produce these ridiculous barotropic systems. I suppose a polar low developing NW of scotland is possible, its happened before. The high res models tend to overdo barotropic development of Medicanes too.

 

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GFS has dropped spring in FI in favour of a cold easterly...

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You really don't help yourself at times, Mooms 

If anything the latest GEFS look like trending the other way as we head into Feb. 

The spread in the ensembles certainly suggest a pattern change might be approaching. With the Met Office forecast; I wouldn’t bet against and easterly showing up soon.

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According to an article in the Sunday Times they have issued a warning of severe cold in early Feb to the government with a 70% of it happening. That's a pretty high level of confidence IMO. 

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Interesting. Is this from yesterday, can you post the link?

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No. I cancelled my subscription and read it in a hard copy.

 

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ECM 00z a mixed bag today. Thin crust pizza on the menu at 240 but often quite cold before then.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx?run=00&charthour=240&chartname=mslp850&chartregion=na&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C

 

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Jam tomorrow? More like rain for many if Arpege is on the money. GFS 12 bore much keener on snow and Icon somewhere in between. Interesting day for sure.

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Ah okay, was it yesterday’s paper though?

Edit: Dont worry I found it (from the 13th unless it had been rereleased)

”The winds above the Arctic have also gone into reverse . . . it raises the risk of strong easterly winds bringing freezing Siberian air over the UK.” He estimates a 70% chance of a severe cold spell around the end of January/early February.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/met-office-beast-from-the-east-to-roar-again-0z8wphjb8 

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Euro4 (which is available out to T+60 here) shows the band starting as rain/sleet, but turning to snow as it moves eastwards. AFAIK Euro4 is a lower-res cousin of UKV, which is used for the short-term forecasts on the MetO site.

 

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Euro4 looks more impressive decent amount for most.

 

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=48&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

 

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If you want an example of how difficult it can be to forecast the weather in the UK, then check out the difference between last nights 96hr FAX chart from the UKMO and the 'updated' chart at 84hr, for the same time, 12Z Thu. A major modification in the space of approx 6-12hrs... pic.twitter.com/HIL96EyQJU

— Matt Hugo (@MattHugo81) January 28, 2019

I’m not sure which model the default iPhone weather app uses but I have been quite impressed with its short term performance (eg for the first snowfall 10 days ago it got the time of turning from snow to rain accurate to within about 20 minutes!). FWIW it was showing snow here for tomorrow hen it changed to rain a couple of days ago but this morning it is back to snow.

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Besides tomorrow’s probable sleet and snow, ICON throws up a major event for Thursday

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 That's a remarkably high confidence level for such a long range forecast. Let's wait and see what happens before lauding or criticising. 

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Part of the articles reads:

"It comes after a heat surge in the Arctic saw air temperatures over the North Pole rise by 65C in two days. Such surges are known to increase the risk of wintry blasts hitting Britain".

 

As we know, all this "hot air" and talk of SSW causing beasts and the like does not guarantee cold weather to hit the UK. There are the "other 99" ingredients needed to fall into place for it to happen here.

We have had cold weather from non SSW events as well.

 

Well I’m still confident we’ll see lying snow IMBY by the end of tomorrow, it could possibly start off as rain mind you. As for Thursdays feature, that too could end up delivering a snow event for many areas from the Midlands northwards though going off previous form with similar set ups I think the northern extent could well be the Midlands and where the front stalls and pivots could be primed for a good dump. 😁