Right I'll throw my hat into the ring and my prediction will be 4.6c

After a long consultation with the weather Gods we have decided to make the winter of 2011-12 a very cold one, in order to balance out the suffering many have endured through this overly mild season. It is forseen that the winter will have a CET of +1.4C, with a condierable cool down occuring mid-december but the real cold, snowy stuff reserved for post- Christmas and January. February cold and anticyclonic.

CET = +1.4C 

Quick update on which way the forum is leaning.

Above average 31%

On average       3%

Below average 66%

Broadly speaking,at present a 2:1 majority for colder than average(wishful thinking?)

I'll take a punt at 4.9c.

Mild until a frosty period  around mid December, usual freezing fog in the prone areas where temps will remain at or just below 0, but no snow.

Change between Xmas Day and New years Day as the Atlantic wakes up and throws a front at the UK brining snow at the start. May stall for a while but would push through introducing mild wet weather for the New Year, mild and pretty dry also for the remainder of Jan.

It is Feb and late winter I see as potentially the main differece from the last few winters as I think something slong the lines of late Feb 2001 or Feb 2006 is probable.

Just my thoughts anyway.

Quick update on which way the forum is leaning.

Above average 31%

On average       3%

Below average 66%

Broadly speaking,at present a 2:1 majority for colder than average(wishful thinking?)

 

5.4c

A real disappointment

Quick update on which way the forum is leaning.

Above average 31%

On average       3%

Below average 66%

Broadly speaking,at present a 2:1 majority for colder than average(wishful thinking?)

 

Are you only counting average as being spot on the long term average or do you have a bit of plus minus either side?

On average is spot on 4.5C.

After a long consultation with the weather Gods we have decided to make the winter of 2011-12 a very cold one, in order to balance out the suffering many have endured through this overly mild season. It is forseen that the winter will have a CET of +1.4C, with a condierable cool down occuring mid-december but the real cold, snowy stuff reserved for post- Christmas and January. February cold and anticyclonic.

CET = +1.4C 

Going with a similar view this year, just like every other year!

CET +1.617c, give or take 0.001c.   

I think any indications of a prolonged cold/snowy period from now until early December will fail. In fact, November on the whole will by very mild, and the start of December too. After around mid-December, things will start to cool down, and I have a feeling that we may be in a for a big freeze around Christmas this year, with widespread snow. With the odd milder period, things will remain well below average quite far into January. February will then follow suit in terms of temperatures, but much less in terms of snow.

Just my feeling. 

CET = +2.3C

I'm still erring on the mild side to be honest, as the winter months approach a repeat of last year is a no/no. It will be into Jan before we see some colder air,and even then I'm still erring on the milder side. CET +1.7

I'm still erring on the mild side to be honest, as the winter months approach a repeat of last year is a no/no. It will be into Jan before we see some colder air,and even then I'm still erring on the milder side. CET +1.7

Lol.....I'd love to see what figure you would put if you thought it was going to be cold!!!!!

Thought it might be worth putting up the Met Office winter mean charts for the last few years for reference.

On the same basis the current spread of guesses and or scientifically accurate predications is:

>2.0C  0

1.5 to 2.0C  0

1.0 to 1.5C  4

0.5 to 1.0C  3

-0.5 to 0.5C  11

-1.0 to -0.5C  5

-1.5 to -1.0C  3

-2.0 to -1.5C  4

>-2.0C  7

Graphically it looks something like this. A good spread but plenty going for deep cold.

4.4 for me - only because no-one else has as far as I can see.

I'm not guessing, however .... this autumn feels strikingly similar to 1978 to me.   

4.1C For me I think this winter season will balance out to around average with both cold spells and mild spells

I'm not guessing, however .... this autumn feels strikingly similar to 1978 to me.   

Hence my CET forecast.