Signals for the winter are far from clear and models and amateur forecasts have widely different outcomes.Many members have been waiting to finalize there own views.Now is the time to nail your colours to the mast and plump for your winter CET forecast.

A bit of context -the 1971-00 CET for December - February averages 4.5C.The last two winters were very different in detail but both were cold,09/10 being 2.4C,10/11 being 3.1C.As well as getting your individual forecasts we should find which way the forum as a whole will tip-above or below average.

Entries by end of November.

I'll kick off with a below average 3.9C



4.7C with a cooler start and warmer end.

I'm going for a warm winter this year very little in the way of prolonged cold spells like 2010,

5.6c

For the 3 months

I have no idea which way it is going to go, I still have a feeling (and it's nothing more scientific than that) that we are in for another colder than average winter. Maybe nothing to compare in any one month to last December, but over the 3 month period I am going to go for 3.8

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2.6C for me. Going to get very cold.

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I'll go for 3.4C, mild to start with then colder through the middle and at the end.

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3.4C please

2.8C me thinks (hopes) 

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Overall rather average: 4.5c

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4.3C for me. Slightly below average overall, with a mild December, cold January and average February.

The above forecast is based on advanced aqueous phytoanalytical techniques* and is thus at least as reliable as most LRFs.



* tea leaves.

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i'll go for 5.1c

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2.4C. I'm going for a below average winter, I think it's going to be late arriving though..

4.3C for me. Slightly below average overall, with a mild December, cold January and average February.

The above forecast is based on advanced aqueous phytoanalytical techniques* and is thus at least as reliable as most LRFs.



* tea leaves.

 dry but average temps in dec. Mild in Jan with the odd cold day. Feb cold dry start ending wet and mild.

CET 5.45

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3.4C 

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4.3C for me. Slightly below average overall, with a mild December, cold January and average February.

The above forecast is based on advanced aqueous phytoanalytical techniques* and is thus at least as reliable as most LRFs.



* tea leaves.

Hmmm, I just checked the tea leaves and they predict a cold, soggy, winter, but with good composting ......

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No clue, but just for fun, I will go cold.

Please give me 2.1 - will be totally wrong, but I don't care.

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I think we will start cooling down before the end of Nov, just how cold we will get through Dec Jan and Feb that is the million dollar question. My hopecast is for very cold and six foot drifts lasting weeks overall 2C

2.2C

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Here is a chart showing the winter CET since 1962 (the year shown represents the year in which January and February fall).

The last 3 winters have all been cold:

2009: 3.5C
2010: 2.4C
2011: 3.1C

The last time we had three consecutive winters of 3.5C or less was 1985-1987

There have not been four consecutive winters that cold in recent times. The closest was 1962-1965 (3.6C, -0.3C, 3.5C, 3.3C)

So it would be quite special if we have another cold winter this year.