https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ens-cs.aspx 

Of the three scenarios stated to be nearly equally likely, I'd pick C, the most southerly one - because successive forecasts over the last few days have shown it trending southwards, and once a trend is established, it usually carries through to completion.

But that reasoning doesn't always work, the Great Storm of 1987 being a case in point.

18zs have shifted it north again.  

GFS Op 00z - picks up on the storm early Friday 980mb Irish Sea early Friday and takes it via the N Sea to Aberdeenshire 985mb Sat 24th. Then a week with a couple of large and deep depressions running past Scotland with W-lies for all until a brief rise of pressure 1035mb Cornwall Sat 31st, but the westerlies resume though not as strong.

ECM - similar to GFSuntil Friday but then track of storm is further south, from Cornwall 980mb to Holland 990mb ad a second smaller depression 990 mb runs along the Channel on Sun 25th.  Then the westerlies, but this model develops an LP mid-Atlantic Thu 30th.

AIFS - London, maxima around 13C to to  Tue 28th with rain most days, then dry with maxima 15C and some cool nights. Edinburgh, similar pattern but starting maxima around 10C, and the maxima in the later dry spell drop off from an initial14C down to 10C by Mon 2nd

GEFS - temps rising and falling, mainly on the cool side to Mon 26th, then s suggestion of a warmer spell for a couple of days before the mean settles near norm in the middle of a spread of ens members. Plenty of rain thus week especially 23rd and 25th, (also 21st and 23rd in the north) somewhat drier after that.

 . . . and back south and even bigger and louder in the 06z run. The morning runs do tend to overcook that kind of scenario and thus hopefully an op outlier, a bit like the opposite end of the Pub Runs. 

EDIT: Much rather have 00z ECM's take, though, which shows it headed towards France and we end up on the calm side of it. But it is on its own with that thinking so I doubt that will end up being the final solution.

The worry beads rubbing season starts. 

The local Echo mentions the upcoming storm but forgets to mention the all-important wind direction. People heading to the beach nearby to see large waves will be disappointed.

A good test again for my new 'hit and miss' gates.

If this Low in Dec with -7 to -8C 850s we will be getting lot of Cheshire gap snow showers here.  Gales NW flow does very well for the Midlands with snow shwoers and sunshine amounts.

FAX - a complex set of fronts combining LP in SE England and an Atlantic front collapsing into westerlies to match the above pattern of rainfall today through to Thu 22nd, Then on Fri 23rd the storm is shown 981mb Brittany 0000, 980mb E Anglia 1200, 998mb Denmark Sat 1200. New LP near Rockall 968mb at that time. Met forecasting gusts widely 50mph but I'd expect higher on exposed coasts.

GFS Op 00z - agrees quite closely with FAX re track and depth of Friday's storm. Then it tracks the new depression across N Scotland on Sat 24th followed by another 955mb Tue 27th Orkney (worth remembering for all the excitement in England  over Friday that N Scotland gets this intensity of storm frequently). Then a quieter period with higher pressure though shallow troughs dip southwards into the N Sea Sat 31st and Tue 3rd.

ECM - agrees on the track of Friday's storm but it fills more quickly, and the two LPs for N Scotland are also there. But the pressure rise is placed further east so by Fri 30th N France is 1025 mb and low pressure is further north near the Faeroes

AIFS - London, maxima variable 12-15C to Tue 27th then slowly declining to 9C Mon 2nd; rain this week, heaviest Fri 23rd and Sun 25th, then dry. Edinburgh, maxima dipping to 8C through to next weekend, then recovering to 11-13C (warmer than London on the 2nd!), rain this week, again heaviest Fri & Sun, perhaps more on Mon 2nd.

GEFS - temps oscillating from 5C below norm to 3C above to Tue 27th, then mean close to to norm in the middle of a fairly wide spread of ens members. Heavy rain Wed 21st (mostly in W), Fri 23rd, Sun 25th and Tue 27th, then dry in most runs but by no means all.

Would appreciate Darren's (Retron) thoughts? Has he asked his account to be terminated?

I wouldn't say very concerning for the SE based on the latest GFS - a windy day yes, but not exceptionally so. Gusts to mid 70mph on the SE coasts and lower inland.

The South West takes more of a hit with gusts here closer to 80mph+ 

FWIW the 06z Arpege goes for a nasty blow for the Southwest too with gusts up to the low 90s mph and I'd suspect (though the run doesn't go far enough) that the South East would be up to low 80s on the coast.

Lookinf across the models at this moment in time it looks like a once in a 5 to 10 year storm for the South West. Bad but not exceptional. If things stay the same I'd expect an Amber warning in the next day or so (Wednesday night / Thursday morning) for the South West and a Yellow for the SE. with the potential for a Red for parts of Cornwall and Devon issued on Thursday. 

However the chances of things staying exactly as they are now are not high so who knows what we'll see!

For Darren to miss a "Michael Fish"

Is not what any of us would wish! 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24750-Storm-Austen 

FAX - fronts lying through west and central Britain today moving slowly NE-wards, followed by a wave crossing England in the early hours of tomorrow (Thu), affecting areas south of Manchester/Leeds. Then storm Austen 979mb Cornwall 0000 Fri running across S England 980mb to E Anglia 1200 Fri (a bit further north and quicker than MetO has it) to 991mb Denmark 1200 Sat 24th with fronts spiralling around it. By that time there's a new LP 949mb crossing Scotland to the N Sea 961mb Sun 25th with strong N-lies to follow (there might be a case for naming this storm, too)

GFS op 00z - agrees with FAX re storm Austen though running it further south along the Channel (so strongest winds in N France, which is what the BBC forecast is saying today). The 'new LP' also tracks across from the west on Sun 25th but keeps just north of mainland Scotland. Then westerlies to Wed 28th with low pressure shifting north towards Iceland as pressure rises around Britain - 1025mb Fri 30th Holland, 1040mb Mon 2nd Ireland, 1030mb Thu 5th Yorkshire

ECM also takes storm Austen along the Channel but has it filling more quickly (only 1000mb as early as 0000 Sat); then generally agrees with GFS.

AIFS - London, maxima rising from ca 12C now to 15C Tue 27th, dropping back to 10C from Sun 1st with some cold nights (ground frost likely). Rain heavy at intervals to Sun 25th then dry.Edinburgh, maxima rising from 10C now to 13C Tue 27th (except a cold day Fri 23rd) and dropping back to 10C after the 1st. Rain persistent to Wed 28th, occasionally wet after that.

GEFS - mean and ens temps up and down either side of norm to Tue 27th, then with low confidence slightly above norm for the end of October and slightly below norm for the start of November. Heavy rain at intervals to Tue 27th, then mostly dry for England, greater chance of rain from time to time in Scotland

GFS Op 00z - shows the above triple whammy, the last LP just grazing the Western Isles as it moves NE-wards, after which a slow rise of pressure, established 1035mb Wales Sat 31st. This hangs on, becoming a ridge from Ireland to Norway until Sat 7th when it sinks S-wards and LP 980mb Faeroes introduces strong SW-lies for all.

ECM - like GFS at first but treats the HP differently, making it into a block over Norway/Sweden with S-lies for Britain from Sat 31st. Speculatively a date record on Nov 1st?

AIFS - London, maxima 13C with heavy rain Fri 23rd and Sun 25th, then warmer and drier to Fri 30th (15-16C) before completely dry with maxima dropping away to 8C through the first week of Nov (contradicts ECM in temps). Edinburgh, maxima 10C with rain as above plus Tue 27th; likewise warmer for the rest of that week (14C) and dry, before, like London dry and temps falling to 7C by Nov 5th.

GEFS - temps quite dramatically vary between warm and cool to Tue 27th with heavy rain on 23rd, 25th and 27th, then most ens members dry to Sat 7th (still some rain in W Scotland/ N Ireland), mean temp a little above norm for the end of Oct, a little below for the first week of Nov. 

A stormy few days, then back to dry and calm weather.

Saturday's review may be later than usual - I have an early flu jab booked. [Sorry, getting ahead of myself]

Hopefully he is back for the winter as his analysis is one of the best we have here. I'm expecting a very mild winter but we always can dream.

GFS Op 00z - echoes FAX but has storm tracks further N (midday Tue nearer Faeroes) so not quite as violent for the mainland. Later (Fri 30th) a pressure rise (1025mb Denmark) turns winds into the S for a couple of days before HP flattens out across France and depressions continue to roll past N Scotland, thus a week of W-lies from Sat 31st, fairly light bar a local LP Fri 6th 985mb Cape Wrath.

ECM - like GFS at first but LP Tue 27th further north still. After Fri 30th the HP near Denmark is reinforced by another centre from the SW so 1040mb Ireland Mon 2nd with any W-lies blocked.

AIFS - London, maxima reaching 16C Tue 27th then dropping away to 10C by Fri 6th, more cloudy than shown yesterday so no really cold nights, Heavy rain today and Sun 25th, a little on 27th else dry. Edinburgh, maxima 10-13C to Sat 31st (Tue 27th stands out at 16C), then dropping to 5C by Wed 4th before rising again. Rain as for London, also a little on Sat 31st.

GEFS - temps above and below norm alternating to Thu 29th, then mean with quite good ens agreement a few degrees above norm to Sun 1st followed by a week at norm or a little below. Rain today, 25th and (mostly in the N) 27th, then mainly dry but an increasing number of ens members suggesting rain after Sun 1st but not agreeing as to when or indeed if.

GFS Op 0z - these westerlies  continue for a  week though LP near Iceland will keep weather lively in the N. But Thu 5th, remnants of hurricane cross Scotland 965mb with stronger winds for all, and in its tail, LP 995mb runs S-wards down the west coast Sat 7th.

ECM - like GFS at first but more extensive HP from Tue 27th forms a block, first near Norway then by Mon 2nd a new cell near W Ireland with some cooler air imported to the N Sea. Remnants of the g hurricane referred to are lingering near Spain

AIFS - not loading fully, may update later [EDIT 0900 - has now downloaded] London - after a one-day maximum 16C Tue 27th, maxima steadily slide down to 8C Fri 6th, heavy rain today, plus a little Mon/Tue 26th/27th, then dry. Edinburgh, very much like London, even to the actual temp values though these slip down a bit more quickly; and a trace of rain on Fri 30th/Sat 31st.

GEFS - alternately above and below norm with quite large swings to the end of the month, then mean stays near norm within quite a narrow range of ens members. Rain today (heavy), 27th (esp in N), Sat 31st, and in several runs after Wed 3rd (esp in W)