The Weather Outlook

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Brian Gaze
20 October 2026 10:45:26
The UK Met Office have now named Storm Austen, see:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2026/storm-austen-named 

There are still some differences between the models. Below is the output from today's ECMWF IFS 00Z.

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Bow Echo
20 October 2026 11:11:45
Looks to me as though the strongest PVA and 300-500mb difluence occur off the the South coast of the UK. Quite a hoover effect there, though I suspect the worst surface wind will be in the Northwesterlies following. Some severe but not exceptional gusts as it stands, all subject to the modelling being correct. The environment is certainly conducive to little surprises from embedded eddies and rotors, though. Just my thoughts. Time and track will tell!
Steve D. FRMetS

Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants



DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 October 2026 12:04:12
It's worth reading the account of storm Amy (as recently as 2025) to see what an early-season storm can do.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Amy 

Amy's central pressure dropped to 942mb, against that predicted for Austen of 980mb - but Austen will cross a much more heavily populated part of the UK, with far more trees at risk of being blown over, and moreover a part of the UK not used to severe storms. Amy passed over Shetland.


I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

Chunky Pea
20 October 2026 13:28:28

The UK Met Office have now named Storm Austen, see:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2026/storm-austen-named 

There are still some differences between the models. Below is the output from today's ECMWF IFS 00Z.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Interesting to see the potentinal for a short spell of snow and the NW edge of that low. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Jersey Phil
20 October 2026 16:05:23
Jersey Met are forecasting gusts of 75 mph here.  No boats from UK to Jersey after today until at least Saturday!
St Johns, Jersey CI

125m asl

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 October 2026 07:29:52
i wouldn't be surprised about reports of local flooding as well. There's a lot of heavy rain over England through to Saturday. The rivers are low and can probably cope, but any drains with blockages won't have been tested for the last six months.
I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

Gandalf The White
21 October 2026 07:43:43

Jersey Met are forecasting gusts of 75 mph here.  No boats from UK to Jersey after today until at least Saturday!

Originally Posted by: Jersey Phil 

I imagine flights will also be disrupted.  


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Ally Pally Snowman
21 October 2026 07:45:39
I imagine the warnings will be expanded later today , Orange probably as well
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
21 October 2026 07:47:57
I wonder if there will be rainfall warnings in places too.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 October 2026 07:57:54
MetO rainfall charts track storm Austen neatly over Friday

0000 Friday arriving off Cornwall with a spiral of rain wrapped around it (that rain has reached East Anglia by that time)

0800 the storm centre reaches Isle of Wight (heavy showers in south, main rain band has reached Glasgow)

1300 the storm centre has got to Kent (more heavy showers in south, main rain band lying down west coast)

1900 it's moved on to Holland (main rain band down east coast)

0700 Saturday fading out over Denmark (but a new front for Britain from the west)


I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

Roger Parsons
21 October 2026 08:14:47

MetO rainfall charts track storm Austen neatly over Friday

0000 Friday arriving off Cornwall with a spiral of rain wrapped around it (that rain has reached East Anglia by that time)

0800 the storm centre reaches Isle of Wight (heavy showers in south, main rain band has reached Glasgow)

1300 the storm centre has got to Kent (more heavy showers in south, main rain band lying down west coast)

1900 it's moved on to Holland (main rain band down east coast)

0700 Saturday fading out over Denmark (but a new front for Britain from the west)

Originally Posted by: DEW 

I hope Darren decides to surface for Storm Austen - are you there Darren???? 


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

idj20
21 October 2026 08:26:29
Just noticed most models are showing the centre passing right over Kent by midday Friday. That'll make for interesting shifting cloudscape in time lapse videos, especially it being a daytime event.


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
idj20
21 October 2026 08:49:12
Virtually identical path to Goretti according to UKGM for mid-day Friday, just not as deep (former was 961 mb when it skimmed over the Strait of Dover last January).

UserPostedImage


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
Jiries
21 October 2026 08:49:41

Just noticed most models are showing the centre passing right over Kent by midday Friday. That'll make for interesting shifting cloudscape in time lapse videos, especially it being a daytime event.

Originally Posted by: idj20 

And for sure lot of sunshine to come after this which will be more sunnier than the recent cloudy wet HP had gone.   I am looking forward to see the sun more than the boring storm itself.

doctormog
21 October 2026 08:53:16

And for sure lot of sunshine to come after this which will be more sunnier than the recent cloudy wet HP had gone.   I am looking forward to see the sun more than the boring storm itself.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

The high pressure brought copious amounts of sunshine for many places closer to its influence. The coming days look like bringing large amounts of rain and potentially damaging winds, but yes there will no doubt we sunny periods between the spells of rain.


Rob K
21 October 2026 08:57:08
Still a lot of variation in the track options - WRF steers the centre way to the south, more or less following the northern French coast. Arome looks like the furthest north.

Consensus seems to be for the centre to stay just offshore, maybe making landfall in Sussex/Kent, which will mean we miss the worst of the wind.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Jiries
21 October 2026 09:06:14

The high pressure brought copious amounts of sunshine for many places closer to its influence. The coming days look like bringing large amounts of rain and potentially damaging winds, but yes there will no doubt we sunny periods between the spells of rain.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yes that what I was after the sunny bit I am interested than the bog standard wind and rain.  I also was under very strong influence of 1030mb but bought dull and wet weather instead.  

doctormog
21 October 2026 09:09:43

Yes that what I was after the sunny bit I am interested than the bog standard wind and rain.  I also was under very strong influence of 1030mb but bought dull and wet weather instead.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

As I mentioned and showed before, you were affected by the weather fronts from the low pressure over France. In that situation cloud and rain was to be expected. We were away from that and had loads of sunshine. Had the positions been reversed, as is often the case, you would have had the sunshine and I would have been impacted by the fronts.


Jiries
21 October 2026 09:29:36

As I mentioned and showed before, you were affected by the weather fronts from the low pressure over France. In that situation cloud and rain was to be expected. We were away from that and had loads of sunshine. Had the positions been reversed, as is often the case, you would have had the sunshine and I would have been impacted by the fronts.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yes fronts not supposed to enter or allow to enter any HP zone above 1015mb so I was totally not expected to be here with ths 1030mb which is very strong pressure to deliver cloud adn rain.  That the reason why I was glad the models had dropped the idea of 2 weeks HP fest and now we getting this on Friday Low pressure instead.  This coming LP seem to bring rain here tomorrow night so probably good timing to see the sun a lot on Friday as the rain exit by daylight hours.

The Beast from the East
21 October 2026 09:59:44
Relieved to see it keep trending south, ECM led the way on this from several days ago

The frogs in for a battering, at least it will stop the looting and rioting!


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

doctormog
21 October 2026 10:33:06

I wonder if there will be rainfall warnings in places too.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

There is now a warning for heavy rain for eastern parts of Scotland for Friday/Saturday, which reflects the current model output very well.


Brian Gaze
21 October 2026 13:39:18
Wind gusts based on this morning's ECM IFS.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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