FAX - weak fronts moving southwards but not having a great deal of effect on temps in the south as a ridge of HP (1020mb) resolutely hangs on in the SW while LP (996mb) moves away from Scotland to the NE. The picture changes on Sunday 2nd as the ridge is replaced by  LP from mid-Atlantic, about 400 miles west of Cornwall by then. 

GFS Op 0z - that LP (above) weakens as it drifts up the Channel to merge with LP in Scandinavia by Thu 6th. After a brief rise in HP from the south, another LP from mid-Atlantic drifts in to cover Britain Sun 9th (centre 1000mb SW Wales), again moving on to merge with Scandi LP Wed 12th. Things look set for a re-run but then then the Scandi LP wakes up, projecting a trough into the North Sea Fri 14th with some rather cool NE-lies for Scotland while still warm and dry in the far south. 

Pressure remains fairly high over W Europe with slack pressure gradients throughout, so the heat there looks set to continue, while a broad trough comes and goes further east, between Finland and Kazakhstan.

ECM to T +240 - like GFS; the sequence ends Fri 7th with the mid Atlantic LP forecast  by GFS for Sunday 9th looking reluctant to move eastwards to Britain.

AIFS - London, after today maxima drop back to ca 25C until until Tue 4th when cooler (ca 20C) with some rain; then becoming drier and warmer (eventually 25C again) until dropping back with a little more rain Tue 11th. Edinburgh, maxima in the range 16-18C to Mon 10th except cooler Tue 4th, a really wet day; also cooler Tue 11th with some more rain.

GEFS - England, mean temp and most ens members around norm from tomorrow through to Thu 14th (cooler at first in NW); op and some ens members suggesting warmer for a few days around Mon 3rd and Wed 13th; chance of rain Tue 4th esp in north, decreasing later. Scotland, mean and ens ca 3C below norm from tomorrow, slowly rising to norm in a week's time; rain possible on any date, especially likely and heavy now, Tue 4th and Tue 11th.

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