Well jel. They'll be sleeping well at night too! 👍

Down here the Mon/Tue rain has receded and faded out, instead replaced by more 30s... more desertification. It's the irony of the UK climate that those places which don't need rain get loads, whereas the millions down here who do - go without. The 6z op GFS shows next to nothing for 2 weeks for much of the southern half of England...

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/96/7674/384_777UKjjg3.GIF 

Incidentally 32 rainless days on clay soil in the hottest July really isn't fun. I'll refrain from posting pictures of my big crack in the garden, but it's an inch and a half wide now! 

https://xcweather.co.uk/forecast/heathrow 

Note the low dewpoints now, see a burst of more humid/typical summer air on Tuesday into Wednesday, then see more low dewpoints as pressure builds again. Until that upper support moves away we're stuck with it down here. It's the summer version of classic Scandinavian High setups, where a cold high dominates, dewpoints fall but now and again moister Atlantic air tries to move in, only to be repelled as the block builds again.

I continue to suspect it'll take an Atlantic hurricane heading our way to break us out of this. And once the block finally collapses - that's our autumn started!

Glad to hear it 🙂 

Doesn't surprise me Darren.  I mentioned to my neighbour that I didn't think it would start raining till September. He looked horrified.  Some forecast models bear me out on this. 🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂

On the subject of September, it looks like autumn may start right on cue in this first full week of August in much of Scotland. Cool and unsettled looks like the theme, especially in northwestern parts but to an extent more generally.

Subject: Personal Model Verification: ECMWF vs GEFS vs GFS (Summer Track Record)

Having tracked the model runs closely over the past few months against actual UK synoptic behavior, I’ve put together a quick post-mortem on how the main global models have performed.

1. THE WINNER: ECMWF / AIFS

• Synoptic Accuracy: Hands down the most grounded of the group. Whenever GFS attempted to introduce phantom Atlantic troughing or severe thermal spikes at T+240, the Euro was far quicker to lock onto the persistent European High-Pressure block (1016mb–1030mb).

• AIFS Performance: The AI-driven AIFS run performed remarkably well at nailing the core temperature envelope for southern England (maintaining the 22°C–25°C baseline with brief 29°C spikes) without getting spooked by operational noise.

2. THE TRUTH FILTER: GEFS (ENSEMBLES)

• Outlier Filtering: Essential for cutting through the operational hysteria. When social media started hyping up "40°C heatwaves," the GEFS mean consistently held ground in the manageable high-20s.

• North-South Split: Correctly identified weeks in advance that the Atlantic storm track would be deflected northward—properly keeping high rain totals over Scotland while keeping the South locked in dry conditions.

3. THE WILDCARD: GFS OPERATIONAL

• High Volatility: Continuously struggled at long lead times (T+180h+).

• Phantom Fronts: Kept teasing Channel breakdowns that completely evaporated within 48 hours as the continental ridge squeezed them out.

• Low-Pressure Phantom Spikes: Just recently spun up a deep 960mb ex-hurricane off Newfoundland heading straight for the UK, only to completely drop it from the charts on the very next 0z run.

SUMMARY / KEY TAKEAWAYS

1. ECMWF / AIFS: Best for determining real synoptic positioning (whether Highs will actually hold or break).

2. GEFS Ensembles: Best for realistic temperature bounds and filtering out phantom heat spikes.

3. GFS Op: Useful for catching early hints of trend changes, but unreliable for medium- to long-range details until supported by ECM.

Yup we had some great nights with Younger Dryas as gfs was really good at sniffing those polar outbreaks from the North years ago it just didn’t know what to do the pattern change.

She done some really daft things over the years always very reluctant to undercut one event was sub T76

A Little daft with wind speeds but having said that sometimes it is better that way than ukm always underestimates then goes into overdrive.

I think as a hobbyist over the years looking at these charts imo  we are actually in more uncharted water than we ever was with model predictions this warmer worlds feed back loop we have seen is much sooner than predicted hence the data for all is hard to calculate.

btw thanks for your conclusions.