GFS Op 0z - that LP (above) weakens as it drifts up the Channel to merge with LP in Scandinavia by Thu 6th. After a brief rise in HP from the south, another LP from mid-Atlantic drifts in to cover Britain Sun 9th (centre 1000mb SW Wales), again moving on to merge with Scandi LP Wed 12th. Things look set for a re-run but then then the Scandi LP wakes up, projecting a trough into the North Sea Fri 14th with some rather cool NE-lies for Scotland while still warm and dry in the far south. 

Pressure remains fairly high over W Europe with slack pressure gradients throughout, so the heat there looks set to continue, while a broad trough comes and goes further east, between Finland and Kazakhstan.

ECM to T +240 - like GFS; the sequence ends Fri 7th with the mid Atlantic LP forecast  by GFS for Sunday 9th looking reluctant to move eastwards to Britain.

AIFS - London, after today maxima drop back to ca 25C until until Tue 4th when cooler (ca 20C) with some rain; then becoming drier and warmer (eventually 25C again) until dropping back with a little more rain Tue 11th. Edinburgh, maxima in the range 16-18C to Mon 10th except cooler Tue 4th, a really wet day; also cooler Tue 11th with some more rain.

GEFS - England, mean temp and most ens members around norm from tomorrow through to Thu 14th (cooler at first in NW); op and some ens members suggesting warmer for a few days around Mon 3rd and Wed 13th; chance of rain Tue 4th esp in north, decreasing later. Scotland, mean and ens ca 3C below norm from tomorrow, slowly rising to norm in a week's time; rain possible on any date, especially likely and heavy now, Tue 4th and Tue 11th.

And just like that, bar the odd shower early next week, high pressure takes charge again

Exactly.  I've seen two forecast models now for yet another warm/hot dry spell for August.  🙂🙂🙂🙂

On Sunday we saw a heavy shower pass over Storrington, yet 2 miles nearer the coast, nothing at all. 

Mixed. Warm, settled spells, interspersed with westerly influences. Doesn’t tie in with the MetO outlook, so will be interesting to see how this plays out 

GFS Op 0z - for next week to Fri 7th there is a slack pressure gradient from 1020mb N Scotland to 1015mb English Channel, the latter the remains of the LP referred to above. In the following week to Fri 14th there is first a modest rise in pressure for Britain (to 1020mb) following by an equally modest fall (to 1010mb), winds mostly from the north. The chart for Thu 20th shows an ex-hurricane on the Atlantic which could have stirred things up, but looks likely to stall south of Newfoundland.

ECM to T+240 - much as GFS, makes more of N-lies down the east coast

AIFS - London, maxima mostly not far from 25C to Thu 13th; hotter days to 29C around Mondays 3rd and 10th, cooler ones to 22C Thursdays 6th and 13th; occasional traces of rain from time to time, something more significant pushed into the future (again!) on Thu 13th. Edinburgh, maxima mostly 17-19C, might break 20C on Mon 10th. Significant rain Tue 4th and Thu 13th, bits and pieces at other times.

GEFS - in the south, mean temp with moderately good ens agreement close to or a little above norm (one agreed hot day thrown in Tue 4th, hot outliers appearing from Tue 11th). For the far south chances but not certainties of rain around Fri 7th, maybe from Tue 11th in east but rain possible in N England more generally. In Scotland, mean temp a couple of degrees below norm slowly rising to norm by Mon 10th, rain likely from Mon 3rd onwards but earlier and lighter in the far north.

Britain continues to be a country of two halves, and any relief from the drought in south has been deferred again

With the 00z ensembles for here also show 2 further bumps so more like August 1995 type that stay warm to hot at times and very dry.  25-30C for here next month likely and London 27-32C.  If this Low go to those regions as you said above this will bring another heatwave for UK.

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_198_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_204_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

I believe we may see some heavy showers/heavy, thundery rain next week, possibly??

🌩️☂️

some rain is likely next week in the form of storms.  Not ideal but with the absence of any frontal rain this will have to do.  

Around the 10th another heatwave is possible as well.  

What ever the temperatures outcome on the 06z ensembles for here I really hope to see sunny days that had been absent since start of July.  Hope August a better month sunshine performance.

Evening run looks even wetter.

Finally some proper rain in the forecast for midweek onwards

Opposite to GFS ensembles say no to rain and show 2 warm/hot spell coming up on Monday onward then again another one.  Slight rain spikes as usual being pushed back Beast as it been the case since June.

Fourth time you’ve called an end. Let’s see if it’s fourth time lucky 

But I didnt say it was the end did I?  I said next week looks wet thats all.  After that it could get hot again. 

 https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/maps-and-charts/rainfall-radar-forecast-map

FAX - High pressure hangs on for the weekend 1020mb S Wales but gives way to low pressure approaching from the SW, 1009mb S of Ireland by Tue. This depression pushes fronts across Britain, fairly mobile for England but stalling over Scotland as the front comes up against a ridge Iceland - Faeroes.

GFS Op 0z - the LP complex outlined in FAX moves off to the east, and by Sun 9th HP covers Britain (centre 1030mb Isle of Wight) and has been fed with warm air from the south. This also moves on eastwards, leaving westerlies behind, and those westerlies then entrain an ex-hurricane which had been close to Newfoundland Tue 11th (uncountable isobars but could be 960mb). By the time this disturbance reaches Britain Sat 15th it has filled and is a shallow depression covering all of Britain from a centre 1000mb Irish Sea, drawing in cooler NE-lies for all except the south coast.

ECM to T+240 - like GFS but running on a schedule 24 hours behind.

AIFS - Generally a rise in temp early next week, cooler at the end, warmer again the following week, dry in the south, wet in the north

 [Detail; London, maxima rising to 29C Mon 3rd, falling to 21C Fri 7th, rising to 29C again Thu 13th, just a suspicion of rain on Tue 4th else dry. Edinburgh, maxima rise to 19C Tue 4th, fall to 15C Thu 6th, rise to 22C Wed 12th, rain Tuesdays 4th and 11th.]

GEFS - England, a brief heat wave Tue 4th (8C above norm in SE, less elsewhere), then a degree or two above norm to Sun 16th (chance of more heat briefly Thu 13th), rain most likely Fri 7th (more definite in N) and after Fri 14th. Scotland, mean temps close to or slightly below norm except briefly warmer Thu 13th, rain likely on many days, heaviest around Tue 5th and Mon 11th.

Also glad to see it seems to have dropped the idea of a trough barging into the Med around eclipse time. Hopefully no frontal activity, just need to watch out for storms blocking the view...

Are you going there Rob?  06z ensembles show the same and seem like a repeat of August 1995 which started off very hot then stable 25-30C rest of the month which the ensembles seem to reflecting it and staying very dry and settled.

I've thought for several weeks that we'll see heatwave No 5 and a No 6. 🙂🙂🙂🙂