The Weather Outlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
17 June 2026 18:37:43
GEM 12z also roasting hot.

AIFS 12z ensembles hottest yet.

Plot thickens!

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
bledur
17 June 2026 18:39:39

Move to Devon 👍. I'd happily move to Scotland for the summer. We never get enough rain anymore and we never get cold days either - I've seen trees defoliated by heat and drought in '22 and I think there's a 'good' change that will happen again this year.. All very sad to watch.

Still, if I lived in France I'd be heading to Scotland already...

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

Summer Climate up at relations in Strath Oykel is lovely compared to down south IMO

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2639146 

+1
Rob K
17 June 2026 19:04:46
UKV 15Z is certainly on board for Meltdown Monday, 38C with 850mb temps of 23C across the south. 

UserPostedImage

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Hungry Tiger
17 June 2026 19:23:58

I think you were recently talking about a theoretical maximums discussion from 20 or so years ago. IIRC, there was even a debate about how realistic 100F was in the UK at one point.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

At one time I was totally convinced that 38C wasn't possible here. I was proved very wrong.  🙁🙁🙁🙁

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Brian Gaze
17 June 2026 20:16:22

UKV 15Z is certainly on board for Meltdown Monday, 38C with 850mb temps of 23C across the south. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

It's actually 39C. I'm just trying to confirm there isn't a 40C.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Brian Gaze
17 June 2026 20:31:24
Ok, I'm reasonably confident we've just fallen short on Monday and are stuck on 39C. The UKV 15Z image below is static so it won't be overwritten.

UserPostedImage

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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+3
saxtemp
17 June 2026 20:36:57
BBC and the Met Office websites sticking to 30c for Monday, feels a bit like 2022 where they were undercooking it for a while when all the models were screaming 40c.
Rob K
17 June 2026 22:07:29
iPhone app has just two 30C days from this spell for London: 30 on Friday and 32 on Monday. Back down to 25 by next Wednesday and 22 by Friday, big changes later in the week. 

GFS has 850mb temps about 14C in the south on Monday while UKV has 23C. Something has got to give. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
18 June 2026 03:43:44
A heatwave is well and truly on the way here, going by the MetO raw (which has been pretty persistent). Bearing in mind the average is 21 here at this time of year, that's a minimum of 5C above, with lots of 16-hour blasts of strong sunshine and high humidity to make things feel even hotter than they are. The MetO heatwave threshold here is 27, FWIW.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/hw.jpg 

UserPostedImage

Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Jiries
18 June 2026 05:11:40

iPhone app has just two 30C days from this spell for London: 30 on Friday and 32 on Monday. Back down to 25 by next Wednesday and 22 by Friday, big changes later in the week. 

GFS has 850mb temps about 14C in the south on Monday while UKV has 23C. Something has got to give. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

The apps are so negative with this they show lot of overcast skies and rain even in London too no sunshine on Monday but rain symbols.  For me I expect full sunshine all the way and when London get to 35 or more here will be 33 to 35 on Monday.   

Ally Pally Snowman
18 June 2026 05:32:16
Hot GFS 0z this morning but UKMO 0z is ridiculous.  25c 850s 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ukmhd&var=2&run=0&time=162&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
18 June 2026 06:03:05
UK Met Global plugs in 39C on Wednesday.

UserPostedImage

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Retron
18 June 2026 06:11:39

UK Met Global plugs in 39C on Wednesday.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The dewpoints are something else too. It won't come off like this, of course, especially a week out, but it's quite remarkable to see. Maybe if this comes off people "up north" will see why some of us in the south get so grumpy in our heatwaves! Widespread in the 20s, a small bit of 25 in Wales, even some 21s as far north as Scotland.

(Dewpoint charts for the MetO aren't working on TWO, btw, so this is an MC static chart).

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/41/22618/ukmohd_uk1_18_162_0epf2.png 

UserPostedImage

Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
18 June 2026 06:11:48
AIFS also absolutely roasting and would be approaching high 30s at times. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
18 June 2026 06:11:56
UKV 03Z much cooler than the 15Z from yesterday on Monday, but notice how 41C is just across the English Channel.

UserPostedImage

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Ally Pally Snowman
18 June 2026 06:18:15
ECM also likely breaks the June record early next week. Has another even hotter burst of heat later in the run.

Astonishing output this morning.  GFS, GEM, AIFS,  UKMO and ECM all break the June record next week.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Chunky Pea
18 June 2026 06:20:44

Hot GFS 0z this morning but UKMO 0z is ridiculous.  25c 850s 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ukmhd&var=2&run=0&time=162&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Coupled with those temps, the pattern in that chart would suggest some potentially epic storms breaking out, whether they are being shown or not.  ⛈️⛈️

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

+2
Rob K
18 June 2026 06:21:12

UKV 03Z much cooler than the 15Z from yesterday on Monday, but notice how 41C is just across the English Channel.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I think UKV maybe just delays the heat a bit. By the end it has 850s of 24C widely across the south. Tuesday would be scorchio. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

johncs2016
18 June 2026 06:44:57
The Met Office are going for a maximimum of around 25°C for next Tuesday here in Edinburgh which would result in it being in with a chance of seeing our hottest day of this year so far if that was to come off (that would certainly give us our hottest day of the summer so far).

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Jiries
18 June 2026 07:09:30

UK Met Global plugs in 39C on Wednesday.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

It mean from Monday to Wed temperatures will exceed 35C for 3 days in the row, so that extended compare to just hot Monday only.  Most likely 38-39C in London and here 37-38C with the uppers of 23c here and 25c in London. I think 40C is possible as well.  UKMO has been very stubborn with this extreme heat and not backing down, delays or cancel it.

Bertwhistle
18 June 2026 07:37:46
0z GEFS mean 850 line stays at/above 15°C from 23rd to 28th, an unusually long run for the 5-10 day forecast.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Charmhills
18 June 2026 08:33:43
Looks like we might be steering down the barrel of a prolonged heatwave!!☀️🔥

I love warm sunshine, but not into the 30s °C with many uncomfortable nights to come next week.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

+1
Rob K
18 June 2026 11:06:39
GFS somewhat slower to bring in the heat than some models but a very hot outlook for the next two weeks:

Maxima from today: 26, 30, 28, 28, 30, 32, 32, 32, 36, 37, 36, 30, 26, 29

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Devonian
18 June 2026 11:41:16

Summer Climate up at relations in Strath Oykel is lovely compared to down south IMO

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2639146 

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Notably, my friends are taking summer cruises that go north, not south, these days. 'Coolcations' and all that.

+1
fairweather
18 June 2026 12:14:24
I wonder if the record will be broken for the highest ever summer solstice which is 34.5C I think?
S.Essex, 42m ASL

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