The Weather Outlook

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Rob K
18 June 2026 15:55:15

I wonder if the record will be broken for the highest ever summer solstice which is 34.5C I think?

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

The record is 34.5 yes on June 21 2017. I very much doubt that will be broken, Sunday doesn't look like one of the hottest days, Maybe 30C tops.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
18 June 2026 16:15:11
Another point of interest is that next week is when all those 1976 date records begin.

Date records from Torro: 

19th: 32.9 from 1893 (!) - outside chance of this falling but probably more like 31-32 I think.

20th: 31.7C from 1936 (I don't count Jersey) - not much chance of breaking this. Latest GFS max 29.

21st: 34.5C from 2017 - also little chance of breaking this. GFS max 29.

22nd: 34.3C from 1941  - plenty of output suggests this could be in reach. GFS max is 31 though.

23rd: 32.2C from 1976 (matched in 2005) - definitely likely to be broken IMHO. GFS max 34.

24th: 32.6C from 2020 - ditto. GFS max 33.

25th: 33.5C from 1976 - also quite possible. GFS max 35.

The 26th to the 28th are the biggies, all from 1976: 35.4C, 35.5C, 35.6C. GFS has 37C, 38C and 33C.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
18 June 2026 16:42:40

Another point of interest is that next week is when all those 1976 date records begin.

Date records from Torro: 

19th: 32.9 from 1893 (!) - outside chance of this falling but probably more like 31-32 I think.

20th: 31.7C from 1936 (I don't count Jersey) - not much chance of breaking this

21st: 34.5C from 2017 - also little chance of breaking this

22nd: 34.3C from 1941  - plenty of output suggests this could be in reach

23rd: 32.2C from 1976 (matched in 2005) - definitely could be broken

24th: 32.6C from 2020 - ditto

25th: 33.5C from 1976 - also possible

The 26th to the 28th are the biggies, all from 1976: 35.4C, 35.5C, 35.6C.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Well the GFS 12z breaks a few of them . Another crazy hot run.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
18 June 2026 16:45:49

Well the GFS 12z breaks a few of them . Another crazy hot run.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yes I added them in after you quoted this. A very hot run as you say, and then looks to go bang in a big way...


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

tierradelfuego
18 June 2026 16:56:35
The GFS 12z is crazy for here for next Thursday to Saturday, 36c, 36, 37c. If it were to be correct you can pretty much guarantee to add a degree on, at least.

As much as this is the June thread, my previous May high here in 15 years of owning a PWS was 28.7c and we beat that by 5c this year. My June high is only 30.7c and we could obliterate that next week if it pans out like the above.


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

Ally Pally Snowman
18 June 2026 18:06:03

The GFS 12z is crazy for here for next Thursday to Saturday, 36c, 36, 37c. If it were to be correct you can pretty much guarantee to add a degree on, at least.

As much as this is the June thread, my previous May high here in 15 years of owning a PWS was 28.7c and we beat that by 5c this year. My June high is only 30.7c and we could obliterate that next week if it pans out like the above.

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 

AIFS 12z basically breaks the June record every day next week, GEM not far behind.  Incredible output. But will it actually verify? 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
18 June 2026 18:24:24
ECM completes the insanely hot 12s. Historic heatwave on the way or a huge model U turn soon.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
tierradelfuego
18 June 2026 18:36:42

AIFS 12z basically breaks the June record every day next week, GEM not far behind.  Incredible output. But will it actually verify? 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I certainly think we've gone past the "Yeah, funny one GFS" stage, through the "I suppose it might happen" phase, probably in the "there's actually a chance" stage and a few days away from the "the sh1t is getting real" day.


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

Ally Pally Snowman
18 June 2026 18:50:46

I certainly think we've gone past the "Yeah, funny one GFS" stage, through the "I suppose it might happen" phase, probably in the "there's actually a chance" stage and a few days away from the "the sh1t is getting real" day.

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 

I think we're here already. 

One thing I would say is some days will have more of an easterly which even with sky high 850s will knock a few degrees off. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
18 June 2026 19:22:54
I'd say we are now more likely than not to break the June record this month. The 1976ers on social media will be ranting about UHIs again...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
18 June 2026 19:54:00
ECM 12z has 38c on Tuesday,  remember you can normally add 2c to these ECM temps.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=17&run=12&time=123&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
18 June 2026 22:16:33

ECM 12z has 38c on Tuesday,  remember you can normally add 2c to these ECM temps.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=17&run=12&time=123&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

The models has been showing high temps with sunshine while the incorrect app show very low maxes with rain and overcast skies.  Never mind I know it will be very hot dry and sunny up to mid 30s here while London get higher 30s. I will uninstall the app if they not correct it tomorrow.  

The Beast from the East
19 June 2026 01:27:20
Horrific stuff if you work in a nursing home with elderly patients. 

Just hope it gets moderated a bit. the May heatwave was bad enough. This takes it up a notch


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 June 2026 06:40:09

Horrific stuff if you work in a nursing home with elderly patients. 

Just hope it gets moderated a bit. the May heatwave was bad enough. This takes it up a notch

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

An example of where regulation should mandate air conditioning. These heatwaves are now easily regular enough for a/c to be not only a decent investment but also necessary for well-being.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Retron
19 June 2026 06:49:21

An example of where regulation should mandate air conditioning. These heatwaves are now easily regular enough for a/c to be not only a decent investment but also necessary for well-being.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

As per the Guardian, the gov't Climate Change Committee recommends it in the next 10 years:

Air conditioning should be installed in all care homes and hospitals within the next 10 years, and in all schools within 25 years, according to the Climate Change Committee (CCC), which published a major report on adapting to the impacts of global heating on Wednesday.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/may/20/uk-built-for-climate-that-no-longer-exists-and-needs-urgent-changes-to-survive-global-heating-report-warns 


Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
19 June 2026 06:49:27

The models has been showing high temps with sunshine while the incorrect app show very low maxes with rain and overcast skies.  Never mind I know it will be very hot dry and sunny up to mid 30s here while London get higher 30s. I will uninstall the app if they not correct it tomorrow.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Out of curiosity which app very low maxes? Even up here where there will nothing like a heatwave the maxima look around average much of the time or occasionally a bit above on various apps.


TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 June 2026 07:28:36

I'd say we are now more likely than not to break the June record this month. The 1976ers on social media will be ranting about UHIs again...

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Always gets me how they turn straight for anthropogenic reasons to explain why the heat isn't anthropogenic.

But memory is a funny thing too. Those who were young adults in 1976 remember it as unrelenting heat and clear skies every day for months until they appointed a minister of drought. The cooler and cloudier interludes are forgotten. That's probably how I'd remember 1995, except being a weather buff I kept a close eye on every small variation.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Charmhills
19 June 2026 08:05:03
The ECM 00z is looking hot right out of day 10 with a few thundery showers dotted about, with the 570 dam up to Central Scotland for a time.

A warm set from the GFS ems, but a nice cool down in fi.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

Ally Pally Snowman
19 June 2026 08:10:21
76 style longevity from both AIFS and ECM 0z. This morning.  Tuesday still looks like the day the record might go,  36c ish. So not quite as hot as yesterday.  

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hippydave
19 June 2026 08:14:35

Out of curiosity which app very low maxes? Even up here where there will nothing like a heatwave the maxima look around average much of the time or occasionally a bit above on various apps.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I'll happily swap maxes (and minimums) if that's an option🙃

All looking very unpleasant  (for a non heat lover) IMBY for the next 7-10 days at least, possible longer and given the output as others have already said it'd be a surprise if we didn't beat the June heat record.  There's enough in the charts I think to suggest the June record will probably be beaten by a chunk rather than a whisker too. 

If things proceed as they usually do any storms, if there's a decent breakdown, will largely miss me too, just to really rub it in.

Not my cup of tea but for you weirdos (🤡) that like this kind of thing, enjoy!


Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

Rob K
19 June 2026 08:27:59
GFS this morning moderates the heat a bit but there are certainly some very hot ensemble members.

Today looks somewhat less warm than it did a few days ago - it was looking like a low 30s day but likely to max out at 29-30 I think.

Tuesday looks like the peak of the heat at the moment, 34C on GFS, 36C on UKV, 35C on AIFS, 36C on GDPS, and 32C on UKMO (which goes for 34C on Wed). Still looks like we might just get a second new monthly record in a row.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Heavy Weather 2013
19 June 2026 08:33:47

GFS this morning moderates the heat a bit but there are certainly some very hot ensemble members.

Today looks somewhat less warm than it did a few days ago - it was looking like a low 30s day but likely to max out at 29-30 I think.

Tuesday looks like the peak of the heat at the moment, 34C on GFS, 36C on UKV, 35C on AIFS, 36C on GDPS, and 32C on UKMO (which goes for 34C on Wed). Still looks like we might just get a second new monthly record in a row.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

The ECM is an historic run for longevity. GFS bit of an outlier on the 0z compared to its ensembles. Perhaps just me, but GFS been a bit all over the place on this heatwave compared to last month.


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Jiries
19 June 2026 09:07:48

Out of curiosity which app very low maxes? Even up here where there will nothing like a heatwave the maxima look around average much of the time or occasionally a bit above on various apps.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Apple one they refusing to show actual maxes of low 30's expecting here not high 20's as the high 20's are much further north.  Most times for here is 2C lower than London like last month 35C there here was 33C so this time if London get to 36C or more then here be 33-34C expecting from the 00z ensembles show 17C-18c with some scatters above it.  My gut feeling that London will get to 37-38C while here 34-35C on Tuesday.  The ground now dried up properly to allow this.

Matty H
19 June 2026 09:41:33
Met Office Amber weather warning for extreme heat just issued across many southern areas for Monday and Tuesday 
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Ally Pally Snowman
19 June 2026 09:48:12

Met Office Amber weather warning for extreme heat just issued across many southern areas for Monday and Tuesday 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Seems unusual to do this. Monday doesn't look that hot 32c maybe, Tuesday does look very hot though. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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