Either I'm looking at the wrong way or I'm not seeing it. These are projected figures showing maxes of 22 C to 23 C for my location from the GFS 00z run.

Yet it was showing 35 C to 38 C in the same time frame for my location a couple of days ago, granted it was a long way off in forecasting terms and thus should have been taken with a pinch of salt. Still, as much as I do appreciate a bit of Summer-like weather as the next person (apart from a couple of people in here), I'm glad of these downgrades. Could still turn around, though.

Looks like a NE drift would keep you cooler on the coast. The real heat on the 0Z GFS comes later on next week. 8 days on the trot hitting 34C with a max of 37.

As Rob has said, the real heat on the GFS 0z came later. But Meltdown Monday has eased off a bit 30 to 32c generally this morning over all the models rather than 37c ish. 

It seems like a first pulse of heat on Friday which is a glancing blow, then slightly cooler on Saturday before another low 30s push, and then another slight cooldown and perhaps a third wave after that. It seems like the most intense heat keeps getting pushed back but it may be only a matter of time...

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=33&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20 (C)

Is it really though? 'Meltdown Monday' now only showing 29c when a couple of days ago they were hoping for 37c.

It has 10 or 11 out of the 16 days ≥ 30C or higher.

ECM 6z, 37c and you can normally add 2c to these ECM temps.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=17&run=6&time=129&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Just look at those dewpoints - I can't say I've seen 24 for the UK on a reliable model before. (And to think, 25 years ago a 19 would raise eyebrows!)

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/67/15035/ecmwfuk_18_132mdc3.png 

I think you were recently talking about a theoretical maximums discussion from 20 or so years ago. IIRC, there was even a debate about how realistic 100F was in the UK at one point.

I think you were recently talking about a theoretical maximums discussion from 20 or so years ago. IIRC, there was even a debate about how realistic 100F was in the UK at one point.

Interesting distribution of high dewpoints. Central London is much lower and other areas south and west are lower too. Any thoughts on why this would be the case?

It's got to be do with the extra heating in the area for the London area - it has the highest 2M temperatures, a few degrees up on surrounding areas. We saw in 2022 that the extreme heat came with low dewpoints  - effectively a lesser version of the thing you see over e.g. Iberia and the likes of Nevada - and I suspect it's a similar process in this case. 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/5/4665/ecmwfuk_9_132wcm8.png 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/16/1058/ecmwfuk_0_132oca8.png 

The pressure chart for the same time shows a weak trough crossing the London area from the west - it seems to have the effect of pumping up dewpoints ahead of it (except in the much hotter London area) almost as if it's squeegeeing the moisture out of the air! 

NB as these are 6z charts I've used static links from MC so that they should remain for the next few days at least. I suspect the 12z will be different again!

Ours has Tuesday as the hotter of the two days.

Indeed you can normally add 3c or 4c to AIFS 2m temps as well.

Well after breaking the June record on Monday the ECM 12z does indeed go cool and unsettled.  Unlike any run recently.