A lot of very warm weather going to be around and looking the 12z ensembles it feels like we could get a short notice burst of intense heat at anytime considering the spread.

I agree. Life here has evolved to enjoy a more benign scenario- with extremes like in 1911 being occasional enough or short lived enough for natural resilience to cope with. But the frequency of prolonged heat seems to be increasing rapidly. Very hot July gaps have shortened for example.

2006-2013 7 year gap.

2013-2018 5 year gap.

2018-2022 4 year gap.

2022-2025 3 year gap.

Sorry- off topic for June but I wonder after 2023 2025 and maybe 2026 if June is the new July.

Looking at the 12z GFS, it has backed off a lot on heat, toning it down to high teens to mid 20s mostly with very localised spikes to high 20s, but short lived.

I think calls of a notable heatwave are likely to be premature. Very usable, pleasant summer weather looks the more likely scenario, with showers dotted about.

UKMO 12z looks a bit different with a one day heat spike, before a cooldown and pleasant beforehand too.

All in all, usable summer weather and not too hot for the vast majority of the country.

Yes, unlike today it may actually get into the teens here (max was 12.9°C today). The below average 15-16°C would feel positively balmy.

I expect quite a few people will be envying you if that chart is correct, but I won't be one of them! That said, I still think there's a decent chance of the warmth extending northwards at times in the next few weeks.

Quite possibly, and it looks very messy at the moment, and despite the 12z data so far I wouldn’t be surprised to see bursts of heat across the south. I’d settle for anything that resembles summer.

I'm envying him right now - even a 12C dewpoint would be nice (the current 17C, down from 19C earlier, is frankly rancid). 

It does look things are evolving somewhat day by day, and presently Monday is the one to watch in terms of heat: I wouldn't be at all surprised though if, come the day, it's moved out another day. I'll be hoping it's toned down too, 35C here on Monday is "hunker down indoors with the a/c on" weather! 

Move to Devon 👍. I'd happily move to Scotland for the summer. We never get enough rain anymore and we never get cold days either - I've seen trees defoliated by heat and drought in '22 and I think there's a 'good' change that will happen again this year.. All very sad to watch.

Still, if I lived in France I'd be heading to Scotland already...

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

There’s a happy medium between cool and grey and baking hot. I’d settle for just summery, even if it was only in the high teens.

Met O forecasting 30C for Heathrow on Monday. Could they be 5C+ out. Possibly.

I'd settle for that too. I'm not sure where that is this year. Carlisle? Leeds? Birmingham? Whatever, if I were you I'd enjoy a cool summer - they're a dying breed.

But, the thing is, while here it feels like summer is already two months old (trees were in leaf weeks early, beeches are filling 'mast', limes flowering, bramble (historically a July flower) well out, countryside dry, hay making well under way) we've actually still got two months to go. My guess is there a lot more heat to come. And if only it would all move to Scotland we might get some thunderstorms!*.

*But where is the cold undercut? Extinct...And it doesn't work like in the past, we don't get short lived plumes of hot SElies we get huge masses of heat that just linger.

I'm driving from Notts to Edinburgh on Meltdown Monday. 30 C to 15 C 😂

No real warmth yet in Scotland this year and a cloudy bleak June

It been showing Monday being the hottest day and likely 35 to 36 here while London 36 to 38.  Likely to break many local records.  

It's moved the ridging further north which - happily - introduces prolonged ENE'lies/NE'lies here. I could put up with that, mid 20s is far better than the utter dross which the GFS had been showing just a couple of days ago (mid to high 30s here).

If moved north then good for NW to join the warmth they badly needed. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_237_ukthickness850sohd.png 

I've put that in as a static.