The Weather Outlook

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Rob K
02 January 2026 16:38:18
The 03Z UKV looks very interesting for Tuesday night into Wednesday with a band of very heavy snow moving south.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ukv/03_117_rain_rate.png 

UserPostedImage

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Jiries
02 January 2026 16:46:17

The 03Z UKV looks very interesting for Tuesday night into Wednesday with a band of very heavy snow moving south.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ukv/03_117_rain_rate.png 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Really hope this to be cancelled or moved it to Monday night to Tuesday as I am off those days back to work 7am to 7pm day shift on Wed so will not see anything out it.  I like to see snow right now than next week.

scillydave
03 January 2026 10:27:09
The Preseli mountains look set to do very well in the next 72hrs if the Arpege is to be believed.  43cm of snow forecast!
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

fairweather
03 January 2026 12:00:44
Prospects not looking good here with showers too far East with too much of a NW component for this location. It's not a million miles away though and Southend might catch something as the showers move South.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
03 January 2026 12:45:24
Best chance for her may well be a disturbance in the right place in the next 48 hrs. At its coldest and most northerly then.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
doctormog
04 January 2026 09:12:01
The satellite imagery shows a lot of shower activity to the north of the UK currently.

https://www.sat24.com/en-gb/country/se 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

+1
Saint Snow
04 January 2026 10:02:33
Winds here have changed to a more NWly, angling the Irish Sea showers more towards this region. Radar shows the first shower hitting mby soon. Hopefully this will continue through today to at least give me a covering (sadly, just a day or two ago, today looked like being the hors d'oeuvres; latest output has is as a meagre full meal)

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

fairweather
04 January 2026 15:12:55
The same set up with a NE flow would have been great for most of the Country looking at how many are being wasted going out into the North Sea and missing most of the Country. (Not begrudging Saint and the NW atm 😉) 
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
04 January 2026 23:09:24
The bands of showers currently in south Yorkshire are a weak cold front; both the UKV and WRF eventually predicted it albeit weaker than it has actually turned out to be; but only on today's runs. 

Forecasts for this event have been particularly poor with even the high res models failing to pick up on the activity of the front until a few hours before it developed.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

picturesareme
04 January 2026 23:30:15

The bands of showers currently in south Yorkshire are a weak cold front; both the UKV and WRF eventually predicted it albeit weaker than it has actually turned out to be; but only on today's runs. 

Forecasts for this event have been particularly poor with even the high res models failing to pick up on the activity of the front until a few hours before it developed.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

All seems a bit more eastwards then the met fax chart has it. Even the low down towards Cornwall is a little more east.

Chunky Pea
04 January 2026 23:38:39
Another (very light) covering here though temps remaining above zero. 
Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Windy Willow
05 January 2026 00:31:26
Those fine flakes have turned to fat flakes and are falling heavy enough to coat all surfaces. The dogs just been out trying to eat the snow as it falls 🤣 Will there be enough for a small ☃️ tomorrow?
South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

When I saw corruption, I was forced to find truth on my own. I couldn't swallow the hypocrisy.

Barry White

It’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine) - R.E.M.

+1
fairweather
05 January 2026 00:40:49

Those fine flakes have turned to fat flakes and are falling heavy enough to coat all surfaces. The dogs just been out trying to eat the snow as it falls 🤣 Will there be enough for a small ☃️ tomorrow?

Originally Posted by: Windy Willow 

Useful late  update as I am watching the cricket 😊The Met Office is saying that is pushing south to reach here in the early hours so it will be interesting to see if you can get a cm or two.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
BJBlake
05 January 2026 01:28:07
Steady snow - the feature has intensified as it passed the Wash and what is shown on the radar as very light snow - is in fact moderate - with heavy yellow echoes upwind - perhaps 30-50 minutes away. We have a covering already and expect 2 cm from this. It’s proper frozen and fluffy snow - not seen here since 2018!! 
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
+1
redmoons
05 January 2026 01:53:48

Steady snow - the feature has intensified as it passed the Wash and what is shown on the radar as very light snow - is in fact moderate - with heavy yellow echoes upwind - perhaps 30-50 minutes away. We have a covering already and expect 2 cm from this. It’s proper frozen and fluffy snow - not seen here since 2018!! 

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

looks like some is coming my way in Watford 🙂

Andrew,

Watford

ASL 35m

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IWATFO32 

fairweather
05 January 2026 10:07:22
Unsurprisingly, despite the forecast it didn't make it here.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Saint Snow
05 January 2026 10:29:06
Think that's it for here.

Tomorrow looks like being a case of rain moving in during the evening (Met Office doesn't even have a transitional snow-to-rain event, just rain from the off). 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Brian Gaze
05 January 2026 10:36:02

looks like some is coming my way in Watford :)

Originally Posted by: redmoons 

Only a dusting made it here. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Crepuscular Ray
05 January 2026 11:09:45
Just noticed a Yellow warning for snow here tomorrow morning. Only 1-2 cm but I could at least join the party!

Rain moves in later though

Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Rob K
05 January 2026 11:25:31
Tomorrow night's band of precipitation unfortunately looks certain to be rain here but some models show it holding up as snow into East Anglia. One to watch anyway.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

wallaw
05 January 2026 11:40:00
Had a couple of really beefy snow showers over the last hour and possibly more to come looking at the radar. A decent covering and a little unexpected.

Ian

Stockton-on-Tees

redmoons
05 January 2026 13:33:23

Only a dusting made it here. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

only snow flurries here, it split over this area.

Andrew,

Watford

ASL 35m

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IWATFO32 

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
05 January 2026 15:02:10
Looking at the ICON12z, the T850s are a good 1-2C colder for tommorow's system (and this also affects the snow risk going into wednesday/thursday). Just shows how uncertain this all is, and the T850s are not even the most important variable. Subtle changes in wind direction, strength and precip intensity could make a big difference.

I continue to think Scotland will do well tommorow, particularly Nern parts.

The rest of the UK is very uncertain as we are right on the marginal fence (both in terms of rain/snow and precip intensity)

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
05 January 2026 15:05:16
The other worthy thing to note about the ICON12z is the very slack area that develops between the two lows on Thursday. Light winds are very desirable if we want to see more snow than rain, they keep the cold airmass in place. The timing of Thursday/Friday's low could also be significant. If it arrives during the nightime when temperatures are low (helped by slack winds) its more likely to be snow.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Saint Snow
05 January 2026 15:05:18

I continue to think Scotland will do well tommorow, particularly Nern parts.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

It's spelt 'Nairn'  

😁

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

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