The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

doctormog
19 November 2025 11:41:01
There is an interesting little (polar low like) feature moving south off the west coast of Norway. I wonder what it will bring later.
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
19 November 2025 12:45:02

Kudos to Q for predicting a more widespread event.  The BBC and Met office have been caught out by this

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Yes indeed. I should have read this thread yesterday rather than relying on the usual mainstream sources. 


Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.

Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl

buachaille
19 November 2025 12:52:20

The official Cairngorm mountain website has a streaming webcam but ironically it is covered in snow just now so you can't really see anything. Nevis range also has some good streaming cameras too.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Also Glencoe Mountain

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
19 November 2025 12:58:06

There is an interesting little (polar low like) feature moving south off the west coast of Norway. I wonder what it will bring later.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Will come into play tomorrow in the form of organised showers in NE england, though probably won't retain its identity as a PL. 

There are a few factors at play here. Some diabatic heating from the PL, a convergence zone setting up as the NErly geostropic wind oversea meets the Nwerly ageostropic wind over land (sea breeze effects too). The result is the potential for locally hours of heavy snow, hence the amber warning.

The counterargument to that is that we will draw some slightly milder air that may turn the snow to rain anywhere exposed to that marine boundary layer and possibly even to lower levels inland later. 

It could well be that initially NErn parts are most affected, but the risk transfers south and west as the maritime airmass penetrates inland. Alot of factors at play, difficult to predict.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

doctormog
19 November 2025 22:00:23

Will come into play tomorrow in the form of organised showers in NE england, though probably won't retain its identity as a PL. 

There are a few factors at play here. Some diabatic heating from the PL, a convergence zone setting up as the NErly geostropic wind oversea meets the Nwerly ageostropic wind over land (sea breeze effects too). The result is the potential for locally hours of heavy snow, hence the amber warning.

The counterargument to that is that we will draw some slightly milder air that may turn the snow to rain anywhere exposed to that marine boundary layer and possibly even to lower levels inland later. 

It could well be that initially NErn parts are most affected, but the risk transfers south and west as the maritime airmass penetrates inland. Alot of factors at play, difficult to predict.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

It has certainly come into play here this evening with several centimetres of fresh snow from that feature and some very heavy snow at times. If it stays organised then the areas you mention should see something tomorrow.


BJBlake
20 November 2025 08:12:52

Also Glencoe Mountain

Originally Posted by: buachaille 

That’s a really clear and helpful explanation of several snow events I’ve witnessed over the years, some  unforecasted until after a thick blanket of snow, only to hear about an unexpected convergence from the BBC, but no deeper explanation of what that means and why it might happen. It looks like dumping an amazing amount of snow from the radar. - but noted the temperatures have risen a little - as they have also done in Scotland, presumably as the pulse of Super cold Arctic air moves south, and less cold polar maritime influenced air feeds in behind it. Having missed the snow showers last night by 1000m - sliding east past my back yard, I am keen to know if the feature causing the Yorkshire snow today will slide south to East Anglia Later in the day or tonight? 

Thanks again for a most enlightening explanation. Please keep your posts coming. This might be a most interesting year and exception to the trend in warming and Ever more bland winters.


Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
BJBlake
20 November 2025 08:15:10
Apologies - I had intended to reply to Quantum’s post. D’Oh!
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Saint Snow
20 November 2025 15:33:22
BBC thinking that the little feature that's brought so much lovely snow to parts of E Scotland/NE/E Yorks will hit Kent through the evening and may bring some snow.

It's currently over E Anglia. Any snow falling from it?


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

idj20
20 November 2025 17:07:09

BBC thinking that the little feature that's brought so much lovely snow to parts of E Scotland/NE/E Yorks will hit Kent through the evening and may bring some snow.

It's currently over E Anglia. Any snow falling from it?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I'd be very surprised if that does turn out to be the case as all I'm seeing on the various models are mostly patchy light rain with perhaps some sleet over the highest ground over the far eastern part of Kent while west Kent is likely to stay dry with perhaps a touch of frost tonight. At least that's what I'm saying in my own Cloud Master forecast. 


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
bledur
20 November 2025 19:49:31
No snow here . -5 this morning . This colder spell nearly exactly coincides with a cold snap last year when we had a little fallling snow,

Is this a pre cursor to a colder winter? In my experience , no especially for the South . The old rhyme Ice in November to Bear a Duck has quite a lot of truth in it.

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
26 November 2025 12:56:56
That little low on Saturday could be trouble.

Alot of models show a hell of alot of evap cooling on its northern edge. Snow could definitely be a thing to watch for. Details are hazy at the moment as alot will depend on, not just track, but the shape of the low and how it develops. A slack wind free zone north of centre is crucial.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
28 November 2025 14:36:42
It looks like the development isn't favourable enough for snow tommorow, I'm reluctant to rule it out entirely though as models do show very substantial evap cooling (just not enough to turn it to snow), so slightly lower than predicted temps could create a suprise snow event. The other thing is that some backend snow into the NE is possible as cold air moves in into Sunday. 

I think realistically any snow will be limited to hills and possibly lower levels in Scotland, but its one of those events where you can't completely rule out snow elsewhere. Will make another judgement this evening.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

doctormog
28 November 2025 16:36:52
Yes, the Met Office forecast for here at the weekend is for the chance of wintry showers. I wouldn’t expect anything more than that with no settling snow likely here I would say (although the last patch from last week’s event just melted on Wednesday).

This chart  gives an indication of the percentage of GEFS 12z ensemble members showing snow falling across the UK in the 12 to 36 hr time period.


doctormog
30 November 2025 08:47:21
Boardshark
31 December 2025 13:53:49
Quantum, are you planning a snow potential for the upcoming spell in the new year??
449ft Sutton Coldfield, West MIdlands
Jiries
31 December 2025 14:52:46

Quantum, are you planning a snow potential for the upcoming spell in the new year??

Originally Posted by: Boardshark 

There should be some snow falls at times during this unsettled very cold spell, some i read in NW for the Midlands Cheshire Gap will fire up for a while while the winds is NW before veering to N so hope to get 5-10cm out of it follow by deeep cold over nights at the weekend.  This coming cold spell is not a settled HP toppler type that stay dry.

howham
31 December 2025 18:10:56
I'm expecting a good old fashioned northerly dumping over the next few days.
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 January 2026 11:44:20
I think the real question is, will doctormog get more snow than the rest of the forum combined?


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

The Beast from the East
01 January 2026 11:51:34

I think the real question is, will doctormog get more snow than the rest of the forum combined?

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I think thats a good bet


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Brian Gaze
01 January 2026 11:54:23
I don’t want to take this OT, but just a quick reminder that the precipitation type radar has been completely redeveloped for this winter. The early signs are that it performs reasonably well, but I built it in such a way that it is very easy to tweak. Therefore, please feel free to provide feedback in the coming days and weeks, because absolutely nothing beats real world manual observations.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/uk-rainfall-radar.aspx 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

doctormog
01 January 2026 12:04:41

I don’t want to take this OT, but just a quick reminder that the precipitation type radar has been completely redeveloped for this winter. The early signs are that it performs reasonably well, but I built it in such a way that it is very easy to tweak. Therefore, please feel free to provide feedback in the coming days and weeks, because absolutely nothing beats real world manual observations.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/uk-rainfall-radar.aspx 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

From this morning’s observations here Brian that looks pretty accurate to me.

I wasn’t expecting to have a covering of snow at this point of the current spell but that is what has happened in the past hour. How much more there is to come over the next few days I’m not sure, but for somewhere in this region it will be a lot.


Roger Parsons
01 January 2026 12:15:14

From this morning’s observations here Brian that looks pretty accurate to me.

I wasn’t expecting to have a covering of snow at this point of the current spell but that is what has happened in the past hour. How much more there is to come over the next few days I’m not sure, but for somewhere in this region it will be a lot.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I've had an email  with a Met Office Yellow Alert including Lincolnshire saying:

Between 00:00 (UTC) on Sat 3 Jan 2026 and 23:59 (UTC) on Sat 3 Jan 2026

Headline

Frequent heavy snow showers, moving in from the coast, may bring disruption to travel on Saturday.

"Snow showers are expected to spread further inland in the early hours of Saturday, becoming frequent and perhaps heavy at times. Around 1-3 cm of snow is likely to accumulate quite widely, with 5-8 cm possible in places, this most likely across the North York Moors. The snow showers will gradually become lighter and less frequent during Saturday evening, and move offshore overnight. Icy patches will also form, particularly during Saturday evening where roads have potentially been left wet from partially thawed snow during the daytime."

I can't see it going that way for us here - but one lives in hope!


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

idj20
01 January 2026 12:46:36
The perfect northerly airflow complete with a cold front.

  UserPostedImage

Apart from bringing snow showers to north Scotland, there will be  little to show for it here at my neck of the woods, save for some overnight frost and perhaps a small chance of a light flurry in the early hours of tomorrow. Over Christmas we were under the near perfect easterly airflow but, that, too, fired blanks.

I'm sure 20 years ago those would have brought thundersnow or a spell of proper falling/settling snow to Kent. With each passing winter I'm becoming more convinced global warming is having an effect. It's like the meteorological equivalence of becoming impotent with age.

Anyway, will stop it here before I start the new year sounding like Richardabdn. 


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
01 January 2026 12:53:16

I don’t want to take this OT, but just a quick reminder that the precipitation type radar has been completely redeveloped for this winter. The early signs are that it performs reasonably well, but I built it in such a way that it is very easy to tweak. Therefore, please feel free to provide feedback in the coming days and weeks, because absolutely nothing beats real world manual observations.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/uk-rainfall-radar.aspx 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I do not expect it to pick up on any snow in my area from the current cold spell.


Kingston Upon Thames
Jiries
01 January 2026 13:01:39

I do not expect it to pick up on any snow in my area from the current cold spell.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

Very impossible to stay bone dry on this spell it more very unsettled one with LP right next to us over N Sea.  Take this set up in other times of year we get so much rain and 5-10C below average temps so should do the same with snow to fall anywhere.  HP is very far away from UK this time, not a HP toppler type that already 1030 plus HP in Ireland move east quickly cutting off the dry northerly.  This morning had unexpected heavy rain showers and it was NOT forecasted so expect the same with snow showers to fall anywhere unrestricted.  

Remove ads from site