The Weather Outlook

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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
05 January 2026 15:07:49
Hmm my gut tells me East Anglia, Lincolnshire and even into the SE could be a favoured spot tommorow.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

+2
bowser
05 January 2026 15:45:00

It's spelt 'Nairn'  

😁

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

The fastest place in the world.....

Saint Snow
05 January 2026 15:48:04

The fastest place in the world.....

Originally Posted by: bowser 

Nah, you skirt-wearers having it rhyming with 'spoon'

😉😁

.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

+1
Rob K
05 January 2026 16:29:08
WRF 6Z model is another jackpot for the south... https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2026010506/nmm-26-94-0.png?05-11

UserPostedImage

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
05 January 2026 16:39:38
The 12Z models have a more intense initial warmfront compared to previous runs. This could be important, if the initial front takes more of the energy the precip and temperature distribution could end up being quite different. Still very difficult to say much about where it will snow tommorow, outside of that NE corner of Scotland (where it will).

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

+1
Matty H
06 January 2026 11:46:06
Yellow warnings now out for Thursday/Friday for heavy snow across Wales, Central England and, annoyingly, here as well. 5-10cm in places. Up to 20cm with elevation. I’d imagine if the models remain similar, these will go amber tomorrow 
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

+1
Windy Willow
06 January 2026 12:16:02

Yellow warnings now out for Thursday/Friday for heavy snow across Wales, Central England and, annoyingly, here as well. 5-10cm in places. Up to 20cm with elevation. I’d imagine if the models remain similar, these will go amber tomorrow 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I was about to post as I'm in the zone, but Matty's beat me to it.

South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

When I saw corruption, I was forced to find truth on my own. I couldn't swallow the hypocrisy.

Barry White

It’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine) - R.E.M.

Rob K
06 January 2026 12:51:10

Yellow warnings now out for Thursday/Friday for heavy snow across Wales, Central England and, annoyingly, here as well. 5-10cm in places. Up to 20cm with elevation. I’d imagine if the models remain similar, these will go amber tomorrow 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I thought you liked snow but hated cold? Or am I misremembering?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
06 January 2026 12:53:17
I'm just inside the yellow zone, but you would expect the area to be smallened tomorrow, and perhaps upgraded to amber. This isn't a classic channel low scenario.
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

+2
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
06 January 2026 13:11:33
The main issue is that North easterly wind, uppers aren't cold enough to turn east coastal rain to snow. We are leaning heavily on evaporational cooling.  Hopefully the uppers might be 1-2C colder and it could be less of a problem. The upshot is you want to be as downwind as possible (with air advected from the precip region) to avoid any rain/sleet. 
25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Matty H
06 January 2026 13:30:02

I thought you liked snow but hated cold? Or am I misremembering?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Used to be. The position I’m now in at work, snow and ice causes me no end of issues, and it can take weeks to recover the position. I despise it now

The only weather that really excites me now is hot summer weather, and particularly extreme heat and humidity.  

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Saint Snow
09 January 2026 15:51:25
We ready for the next bout?

I appreciate this is more a 'north Midlands northwards' event, so there'll be limited interest but the front passing through Saturday night into Sunday morning could bring some temporarily interesting conditions as it runs into cold air from the east.

Almost all the models have snow over the Pennines and to the east of these, but there's a split whether lower-lying areas of NW England get snow.

GFS, UKV, UK Met, GEM have a spell (3-9 hours) of snow before it turns to rain

Arpege goes for transitory snow from around 25 miles inland

ECMHR, Icon have rain until we get to the Pennines

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
25 January 2026 19:04:20
Tuesday's event has obviously downgraded, not quite enough cold air in and the shape of the low introduces a bit too much atlantic influence.

But it still looks like we will see snow to low levels. For this event west is best for where snow will fall. Over or west of the pennines with SW scotland, the far NW, W country in general, Northern Ireland, even NW midlands being favoured spots.

Over higher ground on the pennines a few inches at least are likely.

 

Think somewhere like Dumfries could do particularly well. Evap cooled air taking a long track over land. Orographic lift in the area combined with flow being more or less parallel to the axis of the front means we could see several hours of heavy snow pile up.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

+1
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
25 January 2026 19:09:48
An aside, I love the choppy nature of the freezing level tommorow.

https://modeles3.meteociel.fr/modeles/harmoniedmi/runs/2026012515/harmonieuk-37-19.png?25-17 

Notice the purple pixels over a green background. We have a warm nose which is bringing the temps briefly above freezing at around 850hpa for some places hence the big spatial variation. Very complicated situation, I wish meteociel did soundings or height profile plots for HARMONIE. 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Matty H
26 January 2026 10:32:10

Tuesday's event has obviously downgraded, not quite enough cold air in and the shape of the low introduces a bit too much atlantic influence.

But it still looks like we will see snow to low levels. For this event west is best for where snow will fall. Over or west of the pennines with SW scotland, the far NW, W country in general, Northern Ireland, even NW midlands being favoured spots.

Over higher ground on the pennines a few inches at least are likely.

 

Think somewhere like Dumfries could do particularly well. Evap cooled air taking a long track over land. Orographic lift in the area combined with flow being more or less parallel to the axis of the front means we could see several hours of heavy snow pile up.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Not a downgrade really. The overall output was showing this. The minority were showing something more widespread 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

fullybhoy
26 January 2026 11:16:29
Wanlockhead and Leadhills about 1 hr south of Glasgow looks a good spot for a fair bit of snow tomorrow 
Alan

Glasgow 165m/asl

+1
noodle doodle
26 January 2026 15:29:21

Wanlockhead and Leadhills about 1 hr south of Glasgow looks a good spot for a fair bit of snow tomorrow 

Originally Posted by: fullybhoy 

Yeh, this looks like hill snow only. https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2026-01-27 

Despite what Q says Dumfries isn't even in the warning area - I'm closer to it in Edinburgh it starts just over the bypass (less than half a mile away) - I wonder if the top of the pentlands will get a dusting or its just wet? If he is right I will post a grovelling apology

fullybhoy
26 January 2026 16:22:40

Yeh, this looks like hill snow only. https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2026-01-27 

Despite what Q says Dumfries isn't even in the warning area - I'm closer to it in Edinburgh it starts just over the bypass (less than half a mile away) - I wonder if the top of the pentlands will get a dusting or its just wet? If he is right I will post a grovelling apology

Originally Posted by: noodle doodle 

Yes it looks like a very high ground affair , but i would love to be wrong 😅 i am heading up to Grantown on Spey a week on Thursday, then up to Sinclair's bay which is between Wick and John O'Groats on the Friday-Sunday........hoping and praying for some snow ❄️ 

Alan

Glasgow 165m/asl

Saint Snow
26 January 2026 16:36:51
Nevis gondola station (around 2,000m asl) looks amazing - sideways heavy snow!!

https://www.nevisrange.co.uk/webcams/ 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
30 January 2026 11:26:25
Looks like some people saw some snow this morning (including briefly myself). Glancing blow from that bitterly cold air over scandi was enough to do it. It also demonstrates how you don't need really cold uppers, I think they were about -1C here when it was sleeting. We may see more surprise snow events in the next week as the cold airmass has a few more glancing blows.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

westv
30 January 2026 15:07:23
Does it reflect the lack of snow this winter that this thread is over 2 months old but is only on page 5?
Big heat in May

Summer will be spray.

TheJudge
30 January 2026 17:01:13

Does it reflect the lack of snow this winter that this thread is over 2 months old but is only on page 5?

Originally Posted by: westv 

frustratingly and absolutely correct.

Barby 551 ft above sea level
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
30 January 2026 18:51:33

Looks like some people saw some snow this morning (including briefly myself). Glancing blow from that bitterly cold air over scandi was enough to do it. It also demonstrates how you don't need really cold uppers, I think they were about -1C here when it was sleeting. We may see more surprise snow events in the next week as the cold airmass has a few more glancing blows.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Yes, we had a covering.  It snowed from 5 am for half an hour but then it rained and it had washed away a couple of hours later.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

ozoneaurora
30 January 2026 19:02:51
It snowed in Sheffield first thing this morning, with average of 2 cm of covering, but thawed during the day.
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 February 2026 10:28:05
I think we are looking at fairly widespread albeit light snowfalls for the north tommorow. A weak lake effect under a capped inversion will give 'showers' that merge to form light areas of snowfall especially near higher ground (orographic convective enhancement will play a role).

But it will be cold enough for Yorkshire northwards for this to fall as snow at times.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

+1

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