The Weather Outlook

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buachaille
02 February 2026 11:31:00
Met Office have just issued a snow “warning” for my patch northeastwards. I’m sure you’re right Q that, for most places, white stuff will be fairly light, and very altitude dependent. My house is at 100m, and I doubt I’ll see anything other than light sleet, although there will be snow within a few miles. UKV suggesting that Friday may bring something similar, with precipitation levels a bit higher.
Quantum
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02 February 2026 23:49:29

Met Office have just issued a snow “warning” for my patch northeastwards. I’m sure you’re right Q that, for most places, white stuff will be fairly light, and very altitude dependent. My house is at 100m, and I doubt I’ll see anything other than light sleet, although there will be snow within a few miles. UKV suggesting that Friday may bring something similar, with precipitation levels a bit higher.

Originally Posted by: buachaille 

I'm not expecting much, but it looks highly conducive to snow at lower levels from Yorkshire northwards.

The shallow unstable layer means you might need to be near high ground to get any precip though. 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

+1
Russwirral
03 February 2026 14:29:41
Light snow on the wirral, bitter in the wind.

Temp is 3.7 and DP1.7*C very unexpected.

Weather station:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 

+1
overland
03 February 2026 16:29:03
Looking at the radar snow does seem more widespread than forecast although it does look light.
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
Quantum
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03 February 2026 16:35:45

Looking at the radar snow does seem more widespread than forecast although it does look light.

Originally Posted by: overland 

Unstable layer is very shallow. The issue is the cold layer is very thin. This is why its snowing despite warm uppers, and also why the convection is capped and orography is necessary to get that extra bit of lift to generate precip.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

+1
Matty H
03 February 2026 18:31:36
I’m in Milton Keynes currently. Rain has turned to wet snow
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Brian Gaze
03 February 2026 18:38:35
Rain here, but the DP has just dipped to 0C and the temperature to 1.6C.

Edit: Now down to 1.4C.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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marco 79
03 February 2026 19:13:08
Moderate snow here for last 45mins ...slight covering on grass and cars
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Matty H
03 February 2026 19:38:20
Heavy snow now here in MK. 
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Quantum
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03 February 2026 19:44:33
And again to emphasise, T850 mostly around -1C. Just shows how cold the Scandinavian airmass is, you don't even need deep cold for snow on a glancing blow!
25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

doctormog
03 February 2026 19:50:38

And again to emphasise, T850 mostly around -1C. Just shows how cold the Scandinavian airmass is, you don't even need deep cold for snow on a glancing blow!

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

In contrast the Scandinavian blow of -7°C t850s here is providing the expected easterly muck and cold rain, although there were a few splodges of wet snow earlier.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Quantum
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03 February 2026 20:37:43

In contrast the Scandinavian blow of -7°C t850s here is providing the expected easterly muck and cold rain, although there were a few splodges of wet snow earlier.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Indeed, there are two reasons for this.

Firstly this all important cold layer (say 950hpa ish) is very slightly warmer in the NE Scotland compared to further south.

Secondly the lighter winds and longer land track mean better Evap cooling effects for the places seeing snow.

And for a bonus third possible reason, the cold uppers themselves could be hampering you. Colder uppers = smaller conglomerates. Smaller conglomerates (drier smaller flakes at 850 level) mean they melt faster in the near surface melting layer compared to the near freezing uppers further south which support massive conglomerate snowflakes which are more resistant to melting.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

+1
Brian Gaze
03 February 2026 20:50:55
Still rain here despite the temperatures falling to 0.9C and the DP now -1C.
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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BJBlake
03 February 2026 21:19:48

Still rain here despite the temperatures falling to 0.9C and the DP now -1C.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Same here in Norfolk. Temp never hit above 2.5 today - and I was sure I’d see sleet, but just rain. However, snow not far away in Lincoln ! This was close to being a very interesting and snowy event! 

Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Quantum
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09 February 2026 11:48:13
Fairly widespread snow likely on Friday or Saturday.

We then see a frontal system move in early next week, could be alot of snow on that too. 

The frontal system is still beyond T+120h so there is still a small chance we could have a slide.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Matty H
10 February 2026 15:01:29

Fairly widespread snow likely on Friday or Saturday.

We then see a frontal system move in early next week, could be alot of snow on that too. 

The frontal system is still beyond T+120h so there is still a small chance we could have a slide.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Eh? This feels like two weeks or so back when you claimed similar and it didn’t happen. I can’t see a fairly widespread snow on Friday or Saturday with a lot of snow. Fair play if it does happen 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Tim A
11 February 2026 07:52:50
It is rather comical that we have been waiting a month for the lows to drop into Europe to give us an Easterly and finally when it does we get a few hours of marginal conditions on Friday and a NE wind before a ridge pushes in from the SW and it's game over for the whole pattern and chances of Scandinavian cold reaching us. 
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Crepuscular Ray
11 February 2026 08:00:28
Not a Scandanavian source but the 00Z's keep it fairly chilly or even cold for the next 10 days or so.....in Scotland at least, which stays mostly on the N side of Lows.

I'd find sunny intervals and 'wintry' showers with night frosts far better than the utter filth we have endured for a month

Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Quantum
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11 February 2026 15:22:52
With the cold coming back so quickly from the NW we might even keep some of the snow we get on Sunday.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

+1
Tim A
11 February 2026 18:05:20
UKV shows it cold Sunday night which is very interesting. Let's hope it and the wider UKMO lead the way. 
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Quantum
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12 February 2026 08:16:08

UKV shows it cold Sunday night which is very interesting. Let's hope it and the wider UKMO lead the way. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

Could be a snow all the way event. Cold uppers are completely squeezing out that mild sector.

Meteociel has picked a fantastic time for its high res WRF model to go down.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

+1
Tim A
12 February 2026 08:21:00
This morning's UKV and UKMO are nowhere near as good as last night unfortunately. 
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Quantum
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12 February 2026 10:04:23

This morning's UKV and UKMO are nowhere near as good as last night unfortunately. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

Its going to be up and down a bit, subtle changes in the frontal system could make a big difference.

Actually we should probably be thinking more about tonight, I think you could get a few cms by tommorow morning.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

+1
Tim A
12 February 2026 10:22:33

Its going to be up and down a bit, subtle changes in the frontal system could make a big difference.

Actually we should probably be thinking more about tonight, I think you could get a few cms by tommorow morning.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

 Looks borderline , but certainty possible with some organised precipitation. 

Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

fullybhoy
12 February 2026 16:29:44
Had a wee 10 min heavy burst of sleet/snow/hail about an hour ago which left the slightest of slushy deposits on the car windscreen.......the most of the winter 🥳
Alan

Glasgow 165m/asl

+1

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