At least tomorrow might not be a full day of heavy rain here. Met Office text forecast still seems to think so but the actual models show it tracking further South and just getting some showers from time to time. 

This is proving right despite the Met Office automated and text forecast being dire but none of the models including NMM and UKMO HD showed things to be that bad today.   Ground is currently dry and the sun is out, very little rain at all since first thing this morning when there was a couple of mms.
 

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Its really bad down here in the SE now.  Akin to 1985 and 2012. The weather has gradually worsened over the past 3 weeks from a pattern that commenced across the north and west 5 to 6 weeks ago.

4 weekend spoilers on the bounce now.

Today is the worst. 14.3c at 1pm after a 15.3c max earlier in the day.

We've just past 30mm for the month after a 100mm July.

Extreme cold temperatures as low as 12C here which is 11C below average for today daily high normal.  Where the extreme cold coming from if the false high SSTS to the west are not aiding the warm but brought lot of below average daytime temperatures. 

22C indoors and holding steady after storing warmth in the last few days to survive today nasty cold weather outside.  

Also wondering why UK getting weeks to months of non-stop unsettled weather on this latitude which should be in the pole regions in summer.  I notice Greenland had not been unsettled at all since end of June.  For our latitude unsettled duration for high summer month should be 1 to 2 days while over the poles last longer as it should be. Med get nothing except 1 or twice rare unsettled weather events. 

A farmer's view, from the Vine House Farm newsletter. Vine House Farm in the Fens is where I buy bulk bird food from, online. Thought I'd better say that, and how efficient they are, since I'm borrowing from his newsletter. (https://www.vinehousefarm.co.uk/ )

NEWSLETTER ISSUE 183 AUGUST 2023 from Nicholas Watts; Extracts which refer to weather

What a month here at Vine House Farm, was June warmer than July? No, if you remember the first nine days in June, the temperature only rose to 17°C. It turns out that July had an average temperature of 17°C, which is the 50 year average, but it was of course wetter than average, with 73mm of rain. There was a total of 48.1mm of rain on 16 of those days but spare a thought for the farmers and holiday makers in 2007 when we had rain on 20 days in July totalling 118 mm.  
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July has been a frustrating month with the rape and winter barley being ready to harvest. We only had half a day here and there when we could get the combine out. I can’t remember a more frustrating July, but on looking back at my weather records, July 2007 was far worse. More rainy days and twice as much rain! ..... The plus side of this is that the winter barley and rape are yielding well, they had sunshine when they were flowering. President Putin has again shown us what a terrible man he is, and by bombing Odessa, he has elevated the world price of grains.
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Wheat was ready for harvesting at the end of July - it never used to be. Scientists are breeding new varieties of wheat for early harvest as well as higher yield. Average temperatures have also risen which means they will ripen earlier. I remember a particularly cool summer in 1978, when the average July temperature was only 15.1°C, so we only had one field of wheat harvested by September 1st of that year.
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Irrigating potatoes came to a halt on July 10th which meant there was more time to do some much-needed maintenance jobs. We may not like the cool July weather, but potatoes and other vegetables will be enjoying it; they can keep growing 24 hours a day. Last year was too hot for our crops, they would’ve stopped growing on at least 20 of those hot sunny days and consequently did not produce a good yield.
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Weed control in our organic crops has not been very successful this spring as, when we were doing the weeding in April, it was too wet - we simply moved the weeds from one place to another and they continued growing. This year we are growing oats organically, for porridge and for oat milk, so there might well be some organic English porridge oats on sale in the Farm Shop later this year.
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Barn Owls are having a very poor year, the worst year since 2015. Usually, a very good year is followed by a bad year. A very good year is when half of the pairs have a second brood and they have this second brood because there are plenty of voles around. .... Voles do not breed well in wet weather, so those Owls that are trying to feed young this month will be struggling. In an average year, we would have between 12 and 15 occupied boxes but, as I write this, we have just five boxes with eggs or young, two with eggs and three with just one young and it is possible that one or two of those young will not survive. Slightly better than 2015 however when not one pair of Barn Owls reared a chick in Deeping Fen, because of the huge amount of young reared in 2014. Despite this setback, there is no need to worry yet about Barn Owl populations, the future of voles in our countryside is good as they live on young grass shoots.
.....
It is a good year for some species of butterfly; Peacocks especially but not for Tortoiseshells, they both lay their eggs on stinging nettles but must have different lifestyles thereafter. We also have plenty of butterflies in and around the Café Wildlife Garden; during the last week in July there must have been 300 butterflies on site of 12 different species.


 

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Top man, Nicholas Watts.
Roger

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It is a good year for some species of butterfly; Peacocks especially but not for Tortoiseshells, they both lay their eggs on stinging nettles but must have different lifestyles thereafter. We also have plenty of butterflies in and around the Café Wildlife Garden; during the last week in July there must have been 300 butterflies on site of 12 different species.


 

I saw masses of butterflies down by the local lake the other day - mostly gatekeepers but also some green-veined whites and red admirals. The gatekeepers were absolutely swarming on the thistle flowers, taking advantage of a rare spell of sunshine.

Meanwhile this morning my car thermometer was registering 11C shortly before midday in Surrey. Not very good for the first week of August!

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Here in Edinburgh and despite comments made on here yesterday about the models suggesting that virtually the whole of Britain would be covered in rainfall today, we have had nothing other than a couple of showers which have done nothing other than slightly dampen the ground a bit for a short while.

This means that we have had zero rainfall here with yet another major system failing to deliver a single bit of recorded rainfall whilst other parts of the country get some very high totals once again, and we have even had a bit of sunshine at times as well.

So much then, for the whole of Britain going to be covered in rainfall because the fact that this rainfall has once again refused to fall here, shows that this has not actually been the case and this is yet another example of why we continue to stuck with a water scarcity situation in place by SEPA even whilst other parts of the UK have been flooded out.

I actually knew that this would end up happening because I have seen it happen so many times before in recent times that Edinburgh has already started to dry out before everywhere else, regardless of how "unsettled" the synoptic situation at the time actually is. That is why I wouldn't even have done anything wrong by rubbishing those maps which were posted on here yesterday by certain members of this forum in defence of what the models were suggesting at that time because to me, the models are a complete waste of time a lot of the time anyway.
 

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I saw masses of butterflies down by the local lake the other day - mostly gatekeepers but also some green-veined whites and red admirals. The gatekeepers were absolutely swarming on the thistle flowers, taking advantage of a rare spell of sunshine.

Meanwhile this morning my car thermometer was registering 11C shortly before midday in Surrey. Not very good for the first week of August!

That really cold despite the false high SSTs, extreme heat nearby but still get cold temperatures.    That 13C below average for Surrey and just now got Amazon parcel in and as opened the door, really biting cold winds for early August.   If was Jan it would be around -3 to -4C.

That really cold despite the false high SSTs, extreme heat nearby but still get cold temperatures.    That 13C below average for Surrey and just now got Amazon parcel in and as opened the door, really biting cold winds for early August.   If was Jan it would be around -3 to -4C.

Why do you describe the high SSTs as “false”?

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Why do you describe the high SSTs as “false”?

High SSTs would prevent temperatures fallen more than 10C below average, like in winter most SSTs around 6C to 9C but doesn't give us easily subzero maxes.   I know that most time when it rain the rain water normally same as SST current temperatures. 

Why do you describe the high SSTs as “false”?

...and if you think that's bad, don't show this to Jiries! We're seeing the highest NH temperatures in the satellite era (which goes back to 1979). And it's not a tiny bit warmer either, like the seas it's well above normal.

We've dodged a bullet, frankly, but I bet our luck won't hold next year.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/ 

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/nh.png 

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High SSTs would prevent temperatures fallen more than 10C below average, like in winter most SSTs around 6C to 9C but doesn't give us easily subzero maxes.   I know that most time when it rain the rain water normally same as SST current temperatures. 

So basically they’re not “false” then? High SSTs in the location where they are actually high will not prevent the current position of the jet stream nor the lower than average temperatures - not by more than 10°C, perhaps a notable 8°C or so in a few places although there is still time for some late maxima to be set.

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High SSTs would prevent temperatures fallen more than 10C below average, like in winter most SSTs around 6C to 9C but doesn't give us easily subzero maxes.   I know that most time when it rain the rain water normally same as SST current temperatures. 

It seems as though SST's don't necessarily have the effect that a lot of people would expect them to have.

Back in 2015 when the Atlantic Ocean was colder than average, a lot of people thought that this would increase our chances of getting a cold winter.

That of course, didn't happen and what we got instead was a really wet, stormy and mild winter in 2015/16 which began with our mildest December on record although the more dominant factor in that is thought to have been the super El-Nino which was going on in the more distant Equatorial Pacific Ocean at the time.

It looks as though this summer may well have given us pretty much the opposite scenario to that because we have had some much warmer than SSTs in the Atlantic during this summer, especially to begin with. In addition to that, we also had a decent start to this summer and at that time, a lot of people thought that the high SSTs might increase our chances of seeing more heat records being broken, just like last year.

Of course, that didn't happen in the end. Instead of that, this summer ended up going completely down the toilet pan, especially when we got into July and despite those higher SSTs still being there to a certain extent, some places are still managing to record some really cool temperatures for the time of year, thus once again showing us that higher or lower SSTs aren't necessarily going to have the effect on our actual temperatures which a lot of people might think.
 

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It seems as though SST's don't necessarily have the effect that a lot of people would expect them to have.

Back in 2015 when the Atlantic Ocean was colder than average, a lot of people thought that this would increase our chances of getting a cold winter.

That of course, didn't happen and what we got instead was a really wet, stormy and mild winter in 2015/16 which began with our mildest December on record although the more dominant factor in that is thought to have been the super El-Nino which was going on in the more distant Equatorial Pacific Ocean at the time.

It looks as though this summer may well have given us pretty much the opposite scenario to that because we have had some much warmer than SSTs in the Atlantic during this summer, especially to begin with. In addition to that, we also had a decent start to this summer and at that time, a lot of people thought that the high SSTs might increase our chances of seeing more heat records being broken, just like last year.

Of course, that didn't happen in the end. Instead of that, this summer ended up going completely down the toilet pan, especially when we got into July and despite those higher SSTs still being there to a certain extent, some places are still managing to record some really cool temperatures for the time of year, thus once again showing us that higher or lower SSTs aren't necessarily going to have the effect on our actual temperatures which a lot of people might think.
 

I can't speak for the UK, but those cool ssts in 2015 brought mostly cooler than average temps here on the Atlantic's edge while they lasted. 

I agree though that cooler Atlantic temps tend to bring in stormier weather in general. 

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I can't speak for the UK, but those cool ssts in 2015 brought mostly cooler than average temps here on the Atlantic's edge while they lasted. 

I agree though that cooler Atlantic temps tend to bring in stormier weather in general. 

That's interesting because I had thought that it was the super El Nino event at the time which had led to that really stormy weather in the winter of 2015/16 rather than the cool Atlantic SSTs.

Nevertheless, this summer started off with those really warm SSTs on this side of the Atlantic whilst we were enjoying that decent start to the summer. Over time, the SSTs on this side of the Atlantic have cooled down a bit (albeit only to somewhere which is still average or slightly above average) with those really warm SSTs transferring over towards Canada.

This in turn has also coincided with the deterioration of the overall weather pattern which has resulted in this summer going really downhill. With that in mind, I'm wondering whether or not, that cooling of this side of the Atlantic might have at the very least, might have played a major part of how and Storm Antoni was formed.

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The horrific start to August continues with another totally rank Sunday from this year of grim grey and depressing Sundays like no other.

Just how much more of these hideous endurance test conditions can anyone be expected to take? It's just the same mind numbing beyond boring, ugly depressing crap day after day. No variation or element of changeability. It's so demoralising and keeps on getting worse and worse against any reasonable expectations.

Absolutely horrendous mass of grey filth sitting over us yet again with a vile northerly wind and a pitiful 14 degrees. The sick joke is that the sky is clear all the way from the Moray Firth to Orkney but this pointless garbage just sits there ruining yet another day 🤬

Not a single day since Wednesday has managed 3 hours of sun and only 12 days since 11th July have. Four days since the 13th July have reached average temperatures and there's been only four completely dry days since 9th July. Pressure is running lower for July/August than the record low in the infamous summer of 1879. The warmest period of the year once again reduced to a ruinous write-off 🤢🤢🤢

 

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Unbelievably awful weather here in Fulham today Tuesday August 8th  constant drizzlesince 7 am, heavy dark grey skies, and maximum temperature of 16 degrees. I really have never known such an awful run of dreadful depressing temperatures, total lack of sun, (averaged out) over the last 7 weeks with no end in sight or a break in the weather pattern. Even the promised 2 days from tomorrow have been downgraded by The Met Office and The BBC Weather Forecasting..
I think this summer will cascade straight into autumn with a contnuing lack of warmth, sun, and dry weather. With high pressure seemingly stuck over Greenland and the jet stream stubbonly remaining south of the UK for the  foreseeable, I  see no proper change to even a medium run of settled weather in our current' stuck in a grove pattern'. So depressing... I would love to be proven wrong?

We had that in NW England from late June. 

Last few days not that bad, though. Once the rain cleared through on Sat, was a pleasant evening. Sunday & Monday dry & sunny, today nice apart from early and a bit of drizzle briefly late morning. 

One consistent theme, though, is crap temps. 18/19 feels very autumnal. In early August, it's pathetic. 

 

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Cloudy again this morning and still damp underfoot due to higher humidity, hopefully warmer today with a bit
of sunshine. I think we will get better weather in September, maybe an Indian summer.

Cloudy again this morning and still damp underfoot due to higher humidity, hopefully warmer today with a bit
of sunshine. I think we will get better weather in September, maybe an Indian summer.

That wouldn't surprise me one single bit, and I've lost track of the number of times that August has been poor, only for September to deliver what we should had in August.

We had the opposite scenario of that last winter as well because February was a mild and snowless month here, only for it to turn colder in March (by which time, it was too late for that in my books as we were then into meteorological spring) with some snow at times, especially in the earlier part of that month.

However, we have a warmer couple of days coming up (though this is not likely to be enough to get the temperature in SE England up to 30°C or higher) and if the latest model output is correct, there is a good chance that this month won't be as bad overall as what July was although there are also no signs of any significant and/or prolonged proper summer weather either.

This month isn't turning out to be as wet here as it had looked as though it would be at one point in time which means that when you add all of that up, this could actually end up being no worse than an average summer here in the end, rather than one which is particularly poor, although that is very heavily skewed by what happened back in June.
 

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Once again the only thing of a lower standard than the utterly rank weather is the shocking forecasts. The only profession where you can be wrong all the time and suffer no consequences 🤬

Forecast to be a decent sunny day and what did we get? More disgusting, grey, windy, NW'ly garbage🤯

Cleared up for a while and looked like it was going to turn into a lovely afternoon but no. Within an hour it had filled in with 💩again and there's been no sun ever since. Not even a glimpse. Just how can they get it so wrong? Forecasts at 24hrs were more accurate in the 80s.

NW proving the worst direction again. If it had cleared up from an E/SE wind at noon the filth wouldn't have formed again until evening leaving a good afternoon. Can't even get that under a revolting NW flow.

Will this insufferable, demoralising hell ever end? 😩

The pressure has not reached 1020mb the entirety of July and August to date which must be without precedent. Average pressure is continuing to run lower than the 1879 record low 🤮

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