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Bertwhistle
15 June 2023 20:43:41
We're only mid-month, and the uncertainty in the last third of the month has been highlighted by the forecasts. 
It (CET) has changed rapidly during the last week but only a 0.1°C change since yesterday despite for example a 28.5 here and a 15 minimum. Hard to know where it's going next but with warmish nights, with the LP to the west, I imagine a 16.3 say by the end of the next week and then it's open gaming again.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
+1
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
16 June 2023 04:47:57

We're only mid-month, and the uncertainty in the last third of the month has been highlighted by the forecasts. 
It (CET) has changed rapidly during the last week but only a 0.1°C change since yesterday despite for example a 28.5 here and a 15 minimum. Hard to know where it's going next but with warmish nights, with the LP to the west, I imagine a 16.3 say by the end of the next week and then it's open gaming again.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Yes, I think you’re right. And any change in the last third of the month, will of course have a less dramatic effect on the CET.  👍
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
16 June 2023 09:36:02
IMANSF22                15.2c            Haydon          16.7c
Metcheck                  15.38c          Anomaly         1.24c
Netweather               16.12c          Anomaly         2.03c
Peasedown St John   16.98c          Anomaly         0.84c.    




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Hungry Tiger
16 June 2023 12:54:26

IMANSF22                15.2c            Haydon          16.7c
Metcheck                  15.38c          Anomaly         1.24c
Netweather               16.12c          Anomaly         2.03c
Peasedown St John   16.98c          Anomaly         0.84c.  

  

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 



Hadley hasn't updated for a few days. Must have passed 16.0C now.

I wonder if we can get to 17.0C
 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Spring Sun Winter Dread
16 June 2023 13:31:16
There is definitely a gap in the market for a really hot all conquering June which puts 1976 firmly to bed 
Same with May really as they are the only 2 months left where we haven't come anywhere near beating the all time record in the last few decades.
It's strange to think 2018 was the hottest since 1976 bit still nearly 1C behind whilst 1976 was itself over 1C short of the record .
June 1846 must have had some exceptional synoptics to achieve such a mean as it would be top tier even for July and August let alone June 
Retron
16 June 2023 13:46:20

Hadley hasn't updated for a few days. Must have passed 16.0C now.
 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


It's 16.1:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

EDIT: A nd having set a string of CET records, we're now "only" toying in the top 5% warmest days! 
Leysdown, north Kent
Gavin D
16 June 2023 14:34:18
16.1c to the 15th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average
Ally Pally Snowman
16 June 2023 15:05:09
If we get another heatwave in June then 17c is on . Could easily be the hottest June for 180 years. 1976 was 16.9c 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gavin D
17 June 2023 13:23:55
Hadley

16.3c to the 16th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average
Hungry Tiger
17 June 2023 13:24:49

Hadley 16.3C . Provisional to the 16th
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


+1
ARTzeman
17 June 2023 13:38:33
IMANSF22               15.22c         HAYDON      16. 7c
Metcheck                 15.66c        Anomaly       1.57c
Netweather              16.36c        Anomaly        2.27c
Peasedown St John  16.98c        Anomaly        0.84c.  




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Hungry Tiger
17 June 2023 14:04:19

Just looked up. 😞 I went for 15.0C. Thought I'd gone for 15.5C.
I've stuffed that one. 😞
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Bertwhistle
17 June 2023 14:14:56

Just looked up. 😞 I went for 15.0C. Thought I'd gone for 15.5C.
I've stuffed that one. :-(

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 



Don't worry Gavin. You'll have to fall a long way from grace to get near to me. This'll be my third 'okay+' month but I'll still be in the underworld!
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Bolty
17 June 2023 23:10:50
June locally running at an impressive 17.1 to the end of the 17th, on my weather station. It's rather like a good July or August, rather than June.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Gavin D
18 June 2023 12:26:35
Hadley

16.4c to the 17th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average
Bolty
18 June 2023 12:48:44
Given the outlook, I'd say a 17 degree June is very likely now. If that GFS run comes off, it would be well into the 17s. That would easily make it the warmest since that remarkable June of 1846(?)

It could be a historic month this.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
+1
ARTzeman
18 June 2023 12:59:35
IMANSF22             15.6c             Haydon        17.2c
Metcheck               15.79c           Anomaly     1.65c
Netweather            16.49c           Anomaly      2.4c
Peasedown St John  17.47c        Anomaly       1.33c.   
 




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Hungry Tiger
18 June 2023 13:12:39

Hadley

16.4c to the 17th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



On the way to 17.0C I think that's where it will peak - But another 0.6C to go - That is quite a bit.
 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


+1
ARTzeman
19 June 2023 10:21:51
IMANSF22               15.8c                 Haydon           17.2c
Metcheck                 15.91c              Anomaly          1.76c
Netweather              16.6c                Anomaly          2.51c
Peasedown st John  17.43c              Anomaly          1.29c.               
 




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Hungry Tiger
19 June 2023 12:05:43

Given the outlook, I'd say a 17 degree June is very likely now. If that GFS run comes off, it would be well into the 17s. That would easily make it the warmest since that remarkable June of 1846(?)

It could be a historic month this.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 



On the basis of some of the forecasts I've seen I reckon we're on for 17.3C. That's pretty high for June. 🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


+1
Gavin D
19 June 2023 13:05:12
Hadley

16.5c to the 18th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average
Hungry Tiger
19 June 2023 13:45:59

Hadley

16.5c to the 18th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Only edged up by 0.1C this time.
 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Snowshoe
19 June 2023 15:42:22

Given the outlook, I'd say a 17 degree June is very likely now. If that GFS run comes off, it would be well into the 17s. That would easily make it the warmest since that remarkable June of 1846(?)

It could be a historic month this.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 



Maximum temperatures are currently at 22.7 which would beat the record set in 1976. But maximum CET doesn't go back to 1846.
Retron
19 June 2023 15:54:51

Only edged up by 0.1C this time.
 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


It gets increasingly hard as the month goes on to move up by more, of course.

To rise 0.2 tomorrow, for example, you'd need a CET of 20 for today.

To get a 17 overall, you would need every day from now on (including today) to have a CET of 17.8C on average.
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Bertwhistle
19 June 2023 19:32:50

It gets increasingly hard as the month goes on to move up by more, of course.

To rise 0.2 tomorrow, for example, you'd need a CET of 20 for today.

To get a 17 overall, you would need every day from now on (including today) to have a CET of 17.8C on average.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Which I reckon is certainly do-able if the current forecasts for the weekend and beyond are correct- unless the Lancashire station spoils the party.
Notwithstanding, to be at 16.5 just over halfway through the month is a great foundation for a solid June and a noteworthy summer overall.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
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