An impressive signal for warmth continues in the modelling as far as the eye can see:
https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1668948899841581057 With the extension of exceptional Atlantic Ocean warmth toward the UK in recent weeks, the balance has been tipped strongly in favour of above normal temperatures - and not just slightly above, either.
I was tempted to lean on that more strongly in my CET estimate for this month but was wary of the potential for further periods of easterly winds to suppress the CET like we saw in the opening week. It's so hard to expect something more than a degree away from the long-term average when you're bearing confidence levels in mind.
As it is, recent modelling shows genuine potential for this to become one of the warmest Junes on record for the CET, which is really saying something considering the cool start for that region.
Here on the western edge of the New Forest in CS England, it's been warm all the way, albeit not by night to begin with. My local anomalies are now running at +1.3°C for overnight lows and a whopping +4.5°C for the daytime highs - no kidding! Conditions mid-morning onward have generally been more fitting of mid-July than the 1st half of June.
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[email protected] https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On