Another filthy day, this pattern is stuck in a rut, and I would be very surprised if we see any decent warmth until mid June (if at all).
Summer pattern well and truly set in.

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I think you may well be right the omens don’t look good 

Another filthy day, this pattern is stuck in a rut, and I would be very surprised if we see any decent warmth until mid June (if at all).
Summer pattern well and truly set in.

I know that you have always been well known here for telling us all that we are going to in for a miserably wet summer every single year (especially on the Model Output threads), even though we have actually ended up with some fairly decent summers in quite a number of those years.

However, the law of averages also tells us that if you carry on giving us that same prediction every year, there is bound to come a point in time in the end when that prediction will actually be right.

On that note, I am beginning to wonder whether or not, this will finally be the year when that happens.

Here in Edinburgh, we still have an ongoing rainfall deficit to be made up and if the overall trend is for it to become wetter here over time in the outlook period, that isn't going to bode very well for the coming summer as a result of that now only being a few weeks away.

Furthermore, there have often been a number of teasers during those springs leading up our recent best summers which have suggested that there was a good chance of that happening.

Most notably, the Azores High which we tend to rely on for giving us those decent summers would already be ridging into the UK at times. As a result, Gavin P. would then often describe the Azores High as being very ridgy in his videos where he would then go on to tell us that this would be very good news indeed if that continued into the summer (as it so often did on those occasions).

However, we haven't really seen any of that this year and this tells me that the Azores High is more likely on this occasion to be absent rather than present during the coming summer, no doubt being all too happy then return to our shores a further 6 months down the line and thus spoil yet another winter.
 

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I know that you have always been well known here for telling us all that we are going to in for a miserably wet summer every single year (especially on the Model Output threads), even though we have actually ended up with some fairly decent summers in quite a number of those years.

However, the law of averages also tells us that if you carry on giving us that same prediction every year, there is bound to come a point in time in the end when that prediction will actually be right.

On that note, I am beginning to wonder whether or not, this will finally be the year when that happens.

Here in Edinburgh, we still have an ongoing rainfall deficit to be made up and if the overall trend is for it to become wetter here over time in the outlook period, that isn't going to bode very well for the coming summer as a result of that now only being a few weeks away.

Furthermore, there have often been a number of teasers during those springs leading up our recent best summers which have suggested that there was a good chance of that happening.

Most notably, the Azores High which we tend to rely on for giving us those decent summers would already be ridging into the UK at times. As a result, Gavin P. would then often describe the Azores High as being very ridgy in his videos where he would then go on to tell us that this would be very good news indeed if that continued into the summer (as it so often did on those occasions).

However, we haven't really seen any of that this year and this tells me that the Azores High is more likely on this occasion to be absent rather than present during the coming summer, no doubt being all too happy then return to our shores a further 6 months down the line and thus spoil yet another winter.
 

If only the TWO archive went back far enough, you will see that actually, I don't ALWAYS go for doom and gloom, and I've gone for hot summers several times, and equally, I've gone for cold winters too, if I see a pattern emerging. 
My methodology is always pattern matching, which is as inexact as any other methodology, but there is (in my view) something in it if springs are as wet as this, that the summer pattern will follow in the same vein.

That was true of 2012, which, when the pattern changed just after Easter to cool and wet, it stayed resolutely cool and wet throughout the entire summer. 

I wish I could dig out some of my thoughts for previous summers where I went for a hot and settled one, to prove I am not always the harbinger of doom.

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If only the TWO archive went back far enough, you will see that actually, I don't ALWAYS go for doom and gloom, and I've gone for hot summers several times, and equally, I've gone for cold winters too, if I see a pattern emerging. 
My methodology is always pattern matching, which is as inexact as any other methodology, but there is (in my view) something in it if springs are as wet as this, that the summer pattern will follow in the same vein.

That was true of 2012, which, when the pattern changed just after Easter to cool and wet, it stayed resolutely cool and wet throughout the entire summer. 

I wish I could dig out some of my thoughts for previous summers where I went for a hot and settled one, to prove I am not always the harbinger of doom.

Fair enough (I have only been a member of this forum, so I don't know you from before then and have only been going by what others have said on this forum) but if you went on to read the rest of my post, you will see that I have actually agreed with you on this occasion, as regards to your assessment as how the coming summer will end up panning out because I don't believe that we will get a decent summer this year either for the very reasons which I have just mentioned.

Now you have talked about wet springs leading to wet summers, but it isn't actually everywhere in the UK which has actually had a wet spring so far and here in Edinburgh, it has actually been slightly drier than average during this spring up until now which means that we could actually do with experiencing a wetter period here in order to avoid any issues regarding possible water shortages further down the line.

Going by that, does your methodology therefore mean that those areas which haven't been as wet during this spring might have a better chance of getting a decent summer this year than your own neck of the woods (I am assuming that it has probably been very wet where you are during this spring, going by how you have mentioned that)?

Finally, I will also add that we had a wet spring in 2018, but we still managed to get a decent summer that year so it's not necessarily every wet spring which will lead to a wet summer. For that reason, I also don't want to be completely writing off the coming summer at this stage, just because the majority of the UK has had a wet spring.
 

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Another filthy day, this pattern is stuck in a rut, and I would be very surprised if we see any decent warmth until mid June (if at all).
Summer pattern well and truly set in.

Now down to less than 6 weeks to longest day and your last post about drought. true drought only in countries that experienced high temps and prolonged months of dry weather.  Very wet here this morning so any rain never ever be welcome.  Long dry spells are much welcome and needed break from all year round dampness.   Cyprus had severe hailstorms that gave some good covering like snow last Saturday.  That is very interesting storms than here just lame wind and rain. 

Last time 20c was reached here was 11 September 2022 - 8 months ago

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Even more vile and revolting than last week which shouldn't be possible. Horrifically dull, horrifically wet, horrifically unpleasant like nothing on earth we should be getting at the worst time of year never mind the supposed best 🤢

Nowhere else is enduring the crap we're being subjected to. It beggars belief. Relentless and unceasing filth off the North Sea regardless as to the general synoptics. It just defies any rational explanation.

NE Fife, which had endured an even worse start to the month than here has been enjoying some glorious warm, sunny weather this week whereas we continue to be subjected to worse than appalling conditions that would shame the Faeroe Isles. Near relentless rain on Monday and Tuesday, more foggy murk yesterday and suicide-inducing stagnant grey nothingness, that wouldn't shift or break, today courtesy of an endless feed of filth of the North Sea while the Angus and Fife coasts had plenty of sunshine 🤬Wrist-slittingly awful does not even begin to describe this ordeal 😱

11 days into what should be the sunniest month of the year the daily sun average remains below a ludicrously awful 2 hours. Worse than last years horrendously wet November managed with half the available daylight. That stupidly wet November had 7 completely sunless days in its entirety. Today was the 8th out of 15 - more than any calendar month since December 2021 and catastrophically bad at a time of year when there are rarely more than 2 or 3 in an entire month 🤮

May 1983 was the worst May ever recorded by a wide margin. Such an outlier that there had been nothing like it in over 100 years previously. Yet here we are just 40 years on enduring something that is on a par if not even worse 🤯

May 1983 never had this ludicrous murky fog that extends well inland. Just a few days with mist. Temperatures were also nowhere near as repulsively mild at night with nothing like these hideous almost non-existent diurnal ranges.

This is much worse than anything ever expected in October and November yet there is not a chance in hell that those months would be capable of producing conditions as good as what we should be getting in May.

I have no energy. I feel tired and depressed constantly and it's an ordeal just to get out of bed in the morning. Heating has to be kept on all day every filthy, disgusting and demoralising day. 

2023 is just the biggest weather disaster in history 🤢🤮💩

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London today is perishingly cold at 11 degrees with brisk E wind and rain showers I really do wonder if there will be a pattern change anytime soon!

London today is perishingly cold at 11 degrees with brisk E wind and rain showers I really do wonder if there will be a pattern change anytime soon!

There's been one today!
It's been warmer and drier than average here (40 miles east of London). It's nice to have a cold day for once.



 

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Poor day today, no rain but no sunshine either and cold.  Heating back on. 
I haven't really minded the last few days as at least it has been fairly warm and there has been some sunshine amongst the showers. 
 

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I must have got quite lucky up here lately. Compared to March and April, so far May has been a vast improvement. There's been a lot more in the way of drier and brighter weather, and it's also felt decidedly warmer too. Yes, there's been some cool and showery days, but what May doesn't get those?

Interesting to see so many comments about it being a poor month, however.

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I must have got quite lucky up here lately. Compared to March and April, so far May has been a vast improvement. There's been a lot more in the way of drier and brighter weather, and it's also felt decidedly warmer too. Yes, there's been some cool and showery days, but what May doesn't get those?

Interesting to see so many comments about it being a poor month, however.

I'd agree. 

March & April were poor, but May's felt middling. 

Also, whilst I know it doesn't work this way, I'd rather we got the crap & unsettled weather out the way before summer. 

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I'd agree. 

March & April were poor, but May's felt middling. 

Also, whilst I know it doesn't work this way, I'd rather we got the crap & unsettled weather out the way before summer. 

Sadly does not work as crap weather will always strike in the summer months.  I already lost interest with this year due to shorter window of useable opportunity chances that we can use the garden from March onward.  Still not able to cut the grass and some are now 1m high.  I refused to cut the grass until I know it will not rain for weeks and high temperatures needed.  If I cut now with this horrible SSW set-up continuing, it will go back to 1m within few days to a week.  I want to cut when it dry so it become parched yellow and no growth for few weeks.

The way things has been carrying on, I'm going to find it hard to tell when last Autumn had ended and when the next one is starting. 😂

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Sadly does not work as crap weather will always strike in the summer months.  I already lost interest with this year due to shorter window of useable opportunity chances that we can use the garden from March onward.  Still not able to cut the grass and some are now 1m high.  I refused to cut the grass until I know it will not rain for weeks and high temperatures needed.  If I cut now with this horrible SSW set-up continuing, it will go back to 1m within few days to a week.  I want to cut when it dry so it become parched yellow and no growth for few weeks.

1m? That's some incredible grass, George. 

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1m? That's some incredible grass, George. 

Yes some area of grass are 1m and some as low 50cm. I will use a trimmer to cut down once SSW gone for good.

1m? That's some incredible grass, George. 

TBF I've got some seed-stalks in my grass (in the "wild" area) which are 1m high. The grass leaves are much lower though, more like 30-40cm high.

I've been mowing my lawn every two weeks since the end of March, mind you... down here it's been dry enough. I'll doubtless be doing it again next weekend too!

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TBF I've got some seed-stalks in my grass (in the "wild" area) which are 1m high. The grass leaves are much lower though, more like 30-40cm high.

I've been mowing my lawn every two weeks since the end of March, mind you... down here it's been dry enough. I'll doubtless be doing it again next weekend too! (Edit: I don't like the look of yellow grass, even though it's usually inevitable down here later in the summer. At the moment it's all a lush green, so it's all good!)

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Well the Met Office app got todays weather totally wrong it was meant to become sunny / sunny spells from mid to late morning and the day has yet again turned out cloudy with a cool NE wind and depressing temperatures of just 12 degrees for the London area . How can they get it so wrong?