Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
27 November 2022 12:52:06
Please pm your December prediction to me by midnight on 30th November.

Some background information:

The last cold December was in 2010 with an exceptional -0.7c. This followed 2009 with a cold 3.0c, the second coldest this century.
Since then every December has been above the 61-90 average of 4.5c ranging from 4.7c to 6.8c. The only exception was 2015 with a record 9.6c.
Last year the models were indicating a cold month at this stage only to perform an about turn and the month ended up mild at 6.3c.
The 30 year 91-20 average is 4.8c.

Not an easy choice. 
 
Wrightington, Wigan
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
27 November 2022 14:44:53
This month I will not post my prediction directly onto the thread.
Instead I have agreed with Caz that I will disclose it to her via pm.
In order to ensure I play fairly, I will do this on 29 November, 24 hours before the deadline . 
 
Wrightington, Wigan
Hungry Tiger
27 November 2022 14:58:32
I don't know how to sticky this at the moment.
 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Hungry Tiger
27 November 2022 15:00:49
Just found out how the PM works.
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Bertwhistle
27 November 2022 19:45:00
Not sure if it's my browser (can't think what changed that) or some modernisation of the site but navigation (for me) has suddenly become rather awkward. For example, the (this thread) is visible but the November CET thread is hard to find. Can someone enlighten me? 
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 November 2022 19:52:20
Brian did an upgrade yesterday.  It's very different but I'm sure we'll get used to it eventually.  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 November 2022 20:00:45
To PM, you click on the green circle by the avatar and name of the person, at the top left of the post.
edit - circles are red or green
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
28 November 2022 18:24:07
Just bumping this up until HT works out how to sticky it. 👍
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Hungry Tiger
29 November 2022 15:11:16
Found the sticky function.
😀
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Ally Pally Snowman
30 November 2022 13:25:46
Going to be fascinating to see everyone's guesses for December.  Real chance of the first below average month of the year. But also huge uncertainty of how cold and for how long. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hippydave
30 November 2022 14:15:35
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Going to be fascinating to see everyone's guesses for December.  Real chance of the first below average month of the year. But also huge uncertainty of how cold and for how long. 


Definitely a tricky month to call - there's a decent chance it could be fairly below average by mid month but it's also possible that milder air returns quite quickly and we're average or slightly above average by mid month which could lead to another noticeably above average month. 

As I've carried on my rapid slide down the table with November's guess/soon to be result it's all academic to me😂
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Bertwhistle
30 November 2022 20:30:16
Currently wondering if December might- against all odds- single-handedly scupper the highest CET on record chances!
 
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
JMM2005
30 November 2022 20:53:36
Just having a quick recap on the positions. And after a disastrous October. But a much better estimate for November. My lead at the tip of the table may have increased slightly It all comes down to December. Cold start? Will it last? Will it get even colder. These are the burning questions. I submitted my guess early this morning. 
Justin
Brighton seafront
Webcam for those stormy days and amazing winter sunsets
https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/united-kingdom/england/brighton/brighton.html 
Spring Sun Winter Dread
01 December 2022 10:20:22
Those of us in the top 10 all crowded each other out in November..
all to play for in December which I always find a hard month to predict .
Usually attracts alot of cold ramping at the start in the model chats which I often put down to hopecasting as since the cold hunters fairytale pair of 2009 and 2010 it has essentially delivered nothing but disappointment (the first half of '17 aside) . And it's always do I get swept up in the hype this time or just go for yet another mild snoozefest??? 
Saint Snow
01 December 2022 11:47:19
Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Currently wondering if December might- against all odds- single-handedly scupper the highest CET on record chances!
 



I'd be delighted if it did!

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 December 2022 14:08:26

Prompt submission of predictions again.
Interesting month with a large spread of predictions - including at the top of the table!

December

artzeman  6.83
redmoons 5.85
rickm        5.85
dingle rob 5.80
windywillow 5.70
gusty       5.60
caz          5.60
hungry tiger 5.50
bolty       5.40
springsun 5.20
darren s   4.90
scillydave 4.50
sswd       4.50
ap snowman 4.20
Gavin D   4.20
col           4.02
the professional 4.01
gezm       3.95
splinter    3.86
kendalian 3.70
lanky        3.50
surreyjohn 3.33
snowshoe  3.30
sussex snow magnet 3.10
stomchaser  2.87
frank h       2.70
saint snow 2.40
jmm2005   2.10
hippydave 1.70
grandad    0.90
 
Wrightington, Wigan
Saint Snow
01 December 2022 14:27:09
I've taken the 'sh*t or bust' route  😁

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Hungry Tiger
01 December 2022 15:10:42
I wonder whether we've all got too over excited about the impending cold spell. It doesn't look like a severe one by any means.
I've gone for 5.5C for this December.
I'm not overly concerned atm. Obviously there is all to play for.
 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Saint Snow
01 December 2022 16:05:58
Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

I wonder whether we've all got too over excited about the impending cold spell. It doesn't look like a severe one by any means.
I've gone for 5.5C for this December.
I'm not overly concerned atm. Obviously there is all to play for.
 



If it were January and the start of a new competition, I'd have probably gone somewhere around 4c. As it is, I've nothing to lose from going a bit more extreme. It doesn't come off and I'm just a bit lower in 'mid table mediocrity'. If it's close to the actual, I boost back into the top 10.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Bolty
01 December 2022 16:27:44
Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

I wonder whether we've all got too over excited about the impending cold spell. It doesn't look like a severe one by any means.
I've gone for 5.5C for this December.
I'm not overly concerned atm. Obviously there is all to play for.
 



Agree. If you look into detail, the outlook for the next week anyway doesn't really look that cold. The nights are generally above freezing and the days are about 5-7°C widely, which still leaves the CET roughly in the 2.5-4.0°C range. Chilly sure, but not really "cold" as of yet. All it would need is for the second half of the month to be relatively mild and we would be back up to, if not above, average again.

On the other hand, a proper cold spell setting in would certainly tip the balance, so I wouldn't be ruling out anyone's guess yet.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
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