Ally Pally Snowman
01 December 2022 16:38:58
Great work Frank.
Interesting jmm2005 has gone all in on cold.  And sswd guess is just enough apart from mine to enable me to catch him.
Let's hope grandad wins though.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 December 2022 17:30:11
Late entry just received from Moomin; 3.0c
 
Wrightington, Wigan
Hippydave
01 December 2022 18:13:56
Chart for this month:-
IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page


Link to larger chart 

Definitely some interesting guesses this month - given my rather stellar slide down the table over the last 2-3 months anyone near me probably shouldn't be optimistic!
 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
01 December 2022 18:39:19
Originally Posted by: Frank H 

Prompt submission of predictions again.
Interesting month with a large spread of predictions - including at the top of the table!

December

artzeman  6.83
redmoons 5.85
rickm        5.85
dingle rob 5.80
windywillow 5.70
gusty       5.60
caz          5.60
hungry tiger 5.50
bolty       5.40
springsun 5.20
darren s   4.90
scillydave 4.50
sswd       4.50
ap snowman 4.20
Gavin D   4.20
col           4.02
the professional 4.01
gezm       3.95
splinter    3.86
kendalian 3.70
lanky        3.50
surreyjohn 3.33
snowshoe  3.30
sussex snow magnet 3.10
stomchaser  2.87
frank h       2.70
saint snow 2.40
jmm2005   2.10
hippydave 1.70
grandad    0.90
 


I can confirm that on Tuesday, Frank pm'd me his December prediction of 2.7c. 
 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Snowshoe
01 December 2022 21:34:55
Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Currently wondering if December might- against all odds- single-handedly scupper the highest CET on record chances!
 



I think December will have to be about 1.3°C or colder for 2022 not to be a record. It's been that cold 3 times in the last 100 years, so it's possible, but the odds are very much against it.

If you go by the December to November period, this has already been the warmest year.
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 December 2022 23:05:39
Another late entry a few hours ago from Taylor 1740 ; 2.7c
 
Wrightington, Wigan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
02 December 2022 07:50:15
Originally Posted by: Frank H 

Another late entry a few hours ago from Taylor 1740 ; 2.7c
 

😀Did you say, 'snap'?
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
lanky
02 December 2022 08:37:03
Originally Posted by: Snowshoe 

I think December will have to be about 1.3°C or colder for 2022 not to be a record. It's been that cold 3 times in the last 100 years, so it's possible, but the odds are very much against it.

If you go by the December to November period, this has already been the warmest year.



Yes 11.37C from Dec 2021 to Nov 2022 beats any calendar year values - 10.95C being the best Jan-Dec value from 2014

However when looking at any 12 month period like this, there are 3 periods in 2006-7 that all beat 11.37C above with the best of these being May 2006-April 2007 at 11.64C. We would stll need to have a 9.6C in December 2022 to beat this one so highly unlikely to go this year
 
Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 December 2022 09:55:27
As far as I can see, the overall 2022 winner of the CET competition will be as follows for the following December CET outcomes.

3.40c and under = JM2005 winner
3.41c to 4.21c = AP Snowman winner
4.22c = AP Snowman / SSWD tied
4.23 to 5.52 = SSWD winner
5.53c = Gusty/ SSWD tied
5.54c to 5.82c = Gusty winner
5.83c = Gusty/ Redmoons tied
5.84c and above = Redmoons winner

A tie would be resolved by a tie breaker which would involve delving into the small print of GW's rules. Not what we want.
Wrightington, Wigan
Spring Sun Winter Dread
02 December 2022 10:30:05
Think I might be in with a chance now having previously expected not to...
surprised how cold everyone's gone . December's burned me too many times, re the cold models... A coldish first week doesn't mean zonality won't suddenly appear and dominate afterwards.
 Everyone seems to know the score, we've seen it all before etc etc ...
ARTzeman
02 December 2022 12:10:08
Metcheck                      4.37c              Anomaly          -0.37c
Netweather                   4.73c              Anomaly          -0.38c
Peasedown St John       1.28c              Anomaly          -5.55c
Mountsorrel                  5.55c              Anomaly          -0.1c 




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
02 December 2022 17:00:31
Hadley

3.8c to the 1st

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average
1.9c below the 81 to 10 average
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2022 18:32:52
11c CET year still very much on despite likely cold December. 
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Snowshoe
02 December 2022 22:59:01
Originally Posted by: lanky 

Yes 11.37C from Dec 2021 to Nov 2022 beats any calendar year values - 10.95C being the best Jan-Dec value from 2014

However when looking at any 12 month period like this, there are 3 periods in 2006-7 that all beat 11.37C above with the best of these being May 2006-April 2007 at 11.64C. We would stll need to have a 9.6C in December 2022 to beat this one so highly unlikely to go this year
 



Good point.  Looking at calender years is somewhat arbitrary, and misses extended periods when the heat is split between two years.
Gavin D
03 December 2022 14:06:59
Hadley

3.9c to the 2nd

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average
1.8c below the 81 to 10 average
ARTzeman
03 December 2022 15:00:30
Metcheck                    4.54c              Anomaly           -0.46c
Netweather                 4.54c              Anomaly           -0.57c
Peasedown  St John      2.87c              Anomaly         -3.96c.
Mountsorrel                4.5c                Anomaly           -0.6c.




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bolty
03 December 2022 15:18:52
It is interesting to point out that the other warmest years on record do still manage to sneak in a below average month. 2022 being the warmest year, but still managing a below average December would actually be following the trend. Looking at the current top five warmest years:

The current record 2014 had a below average August.
The previous record 2006 had a below average February and March
Third placed 2020 had a cool July and October.
Fourth placed 2011 had a cool summer overall.
And finally 2018 had a cold February and March again.

To get the warmest year on record with all twelve months above average would be pretty unprecedented, by the looks of things.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Bertwhistle
03 December 2022 17:07:48
Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

Metcheck                    4.54c              Anomaly           -0.46c
Netweather                 4.54c              Anomaly           -0.57c
Peasedown  St John      2.87c              Anomaly         -3.96c.
Mountsorrel                4.5c                Anomaly           -0.6c.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Bertwhistle
03 December 2022 17:10:09
Tried to reply to Bolty's post but got in a fix- not sure how the 'quote' buttons work.
Anyhow, to reply to Bolty- I think it's a case of that's why those are the warmest on record Scott - because there is only one (or maybe two) below average that sneaked in there. 
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Snowshoe
03 December 2022 23:39:54
Originally Posted by: Bolty 

It is interesting to point out that the other warmest years on record do still manage to sneak in a below average month. 2022 being the warmest year, but still managing a below average December would actually be following the trend.



Further to this, there have been been 10 years with 11 above average months, before 2022, but no year so far has managed a clean sweep.

The years with 11 above average months were 1781, 1834, 1945, 1949, 1999, 2003, 2006, 2014, 2017, and now 2022.

The current run of above average months started in June 2021, a total of 18 months so far, which look like it's the longest streak in the CET record. The previous record was the 15 months from April 2006 - June 2007.

(This is based on the 1961 - 1990 average used by the Met Office.)
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