I'm not unhappy with my guess - but actually wish I'd gone a smidge cooler.

Met Office CET back into double figures again up to 9th

10.0C (+3.6C 1961-90)

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/cet_mean_2022.txt

Metcheck                      10.7c             Anomaly            1.55c

Netweather                   10.93c           Anomaly            4.04c

Peasedown St John       10.17c          Anomaly             4.13c.  

Mount Sorrel                10.30c          Anomaly             3.4c.

CET up to 10.2°C to yesterday and after last night, another visible jump is expected today.

Looks like another date record today and some night time November records for Scotland and N.I.

Looks like another date record today and some night time November records for Scotland and N.I.

 

19.5c in Myerscough.  Warmest ever Armistice day. 

Metcheck                    10.61c            Anomaly            3.69c

Netweather                 11.25c            Anomaly            4.36c

Peasedown St John       10.91c          Anomaly             4.07c.

Mount Sorrel                10.6c            Anomaly             3.7c.              

MET OFFICE HADLEY CET  10.6c      Anomaly   4.2c Provisional to 11th.

MET OFFICE HADLEY CET  10.6c      Anomaly   4.2c Provisional to 11th.

Should be over 11c by Tuesday.  Then a slow decline. 

MET OFFICE HADLEY CET  10.6c      Anomaly   4.2c Provisional to 11th.

The CET for the day was 14.3C, just another in a series of date CET records this year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2022/daily_meantemp_cet_2022.png

(Contrast with last year's chart - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2021/daily_meantemp_cet_2021.png)

It's astonishing to get a 0.4C rise in the CET in a single day in the middle of the month!

Mount Sorrel               10.7c          Anomaly        3.8c

Metcheck                    10.69c        Anomaly        3.77c

Netweather                 11.31c        Anomaly        4.42c

Peasedown St John     10.93c       Anomaly       4.45c.   

HadCET 10.7°C to yesterday.

HadCET 10.7°C to yesterday.

And the target for warmest calendar year now -1.3C. 

In one of yesterday's videos, Gavin P. hinted that this month's CET could end up dropping to around 8/9°C by the end of this month once this extraordinary warm spell is out of the way.

Just to show how remarkable this spell of weather actually is, the average temperature at Edinburgh Gogarbank during this month so far is an incredible 10.9°C which is a massive 4.3°C above the 1991-2020 November average for that particular station and well above Gavin P.'s latest estimate for this month's final CET figure.

In addition to that, this figure is also higher than the 1991-2020 November average maximum temperature at that same station.

There are no actual official averages for the average temperature for any given month or season at this particular station so in order to calculate that, I have taken the average of the 1991-2020 November averages for the maximum and minimum temperatures for that station as stated by the Met Office.

The minimum and maximum temperatures which I have used for this are the daily minimum and maximum temperatures for each 24 hour period starting from 09:00 UTC on one day and 09:00 UTC on the very next day after that.

In order to calculate the overall average temperature, I have then taken each averages of those daily minimum and maximum temperatures for each of those same 24 hour period and then averaged those out over the entire month.

Working in that same manner, the average daily maximum temperature at Edinburgh Gogarbank during this month so far as at 09:00 UTC this morning was 14.1°C which is 4.5°C above the 1991-2020 November average for that particular station.

Meanwhile, the average daily minimum temperature at Edinburgh Gogarbank as at 09:00 UTC was 7.8°C which is 4.2°C above the 1991-2020 November average for that particular station.

Given that I am using newer (and therefore, probably higher) averages here the 1961-1990 averages which are used on the Met Office Hadley site for the CET, these figures are even more remarkable because they are showing that in terms of the temperature anomalies, this month has actually been even warmer here in Edinburgh than what it has been in the CET region.

I'm not unhappy with my guess - but actually wish I'd gone a smidge cooler.

This aged well  

Met Office CET now up to 10.8C to 13th Nov (+4.4C Anom 61-90)

**edit"" but still way behind the record CET Mean for Nov 1st - 13th set in 1938 at 12.1C.     2015 was also higher at 11.5C

Mount Sorrel           10.74             Anomaly          3.8c

Metcheck                10.65c           Anomaly           3.73c

Netweather             11.33c           Anomaly           4.44c

Peasedown St John   11.c               Anomaly            4.56c.      

Hadley

10.8c to the 13th

4.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

Last 30 days CET is 12.3c

This is higher than the second half of September, 12.1c