Thanks for the update James.

In your Tweet, what's the orange line? Record warmest?

The orange line represents what the conditions of the warmest historical year that had a CET within 2°C of 2022's as of 18th would do to this year's CET going forward, if they repeated themselves now.

So, sort of a record warmest, but not exactly 

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Metcheck                    11.91c       Anomaly       1.46c

Netweather                 12.61c       Anomaly       2.21

Peasedown St John     12.21c       Anomaly     -1.59c.         

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Met Office Hadley CET 12.0c     Anomaly    1.5c provisional to 19th.

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Met Office Hadley CET 12.0c     Anomaly    1.5c provisional to 19th.

 I could do with it sticking at 12c. 

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Hadley

12.1c to the 20th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

Metcheck                       11.95c        Anomaly       1.6

Netweather                    12.65c        Anomaly       2.26c      

Peasedown St John        12.65c        Anomaly       -1.6c.

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Metcheck                    12.02c               Anomaly            1.31c

Netweather                 12.73c               Anomaly            2.34c

Peasedown St John          12.46c               Anomaly            -1.34c.

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Hadley

12.2c to the 21st

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

Hadley

12.2c to the 21st

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

+0.36C the target now for warmest year, back where it was in mid September. 

71 days left in 2022. 0.36 x 71 = 25.56C above normal degree days. If CET for next 10 days is per GFS it’ll be at least 2.5C (possibly 3C) above average, so 30 degree days and we’d be left only needing CET to be at or a tad below average in Nov and Dec to win the crown. 

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+0.36C the target now for warmest year, back where it was in mid September. 

71 days left in 2022. 0.36 x 71 = 25.56C above normal degree days. If CET for next 10 days is per GFS it’ll be at least 2.5C (possibly 3C) above average, so 30 degree days and we’d be left only needing CET to be at or a tad below average in Nov and Dec to win the crown. 

And I think it deserves the crown, given the record heat we had in summer.  The CET doesn’t really reflect the extremes or the general weather but maybe it will to some extent this year. 

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Metcheck                        12.10c          Anomaly           1.58c

Netweather                     12.81c          Anomaly           2.42c

Peeasedown st John        12.35c          Anomaly          -1.3c.  

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Hadley

12.2c to the 22nd

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

Reckon we could end up with a 12.5C

 

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Never known an October like it (although I was just 4 in 1969).

Some local stats: mean max to today 18.3°C, amazing when you think there have been no really warm days like 2011. 2007, 1985 etc (highest max only 20.5°C)

Lowest max 15.3°C on 11th

Number of days below 17°C = just 4. 16 out of 23 days have been 18°C or more. That despite many of them being showery/ rainy.

Mean min also high but not worth posting as I take my readings around 7am, meaning warm nights following cool nights often register as another cool night.

Not to mention anomalously high number of thundery days for this time of year- off thread. Oops- did just mention it. Had to squeeze it in there.

 

 

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This month is reminding me of May by being exceptionally warm without managing any actual notable heatwaves (although the end of month will most likely be remarkable for how late in the month the high temps are)
Octobers 2005 and 2006 were much the same.

Metcheck                     12.1c          Anomaly       1.65c

Netweather                  12.87c        Anomaly        2.48c

Peasedown St John      12.61c        Anomaly        -1.11c.

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Hadley

12.3c to the 23rd

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

Metcheck                   12.16c         Anomaly        1.65c

Netweather                12.89          Anomaly         2.5c

Peasedown St John      12.5c          Anomaly         -1.3c.    

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Met Office Hadley C. E. T.   12.4c    Anomaily   1.9c provisional to 24th.

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12.4°C to 24th. Impressed this late it's putting on a tenth per day. I reckon it might get to 12.7 if Thursday and Sunday are as warrm as was forecast up to yesterday (the 15° 850 line flirts with the S now instead of bathing it).

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