A very unusual situation in the foreseeable future, with a stalling MJO-like anomaly in the Western Pacific.

Phases 6-7 during a La Nina event such as we have now usually corresponds to a -NAO, but only phase 7 tends to be on the cold side for the UK. As it is, we're seeing phase 6 influencing the modelled response pattern for next week, though not without significant distortion.

This is typical the phase 6 Nina response pattern, unsettled for the UK with temps near average. Yet forecast modelling is predicting a large cut-off low to the southwest driving some impressively warm air across our shores for at least a few days next week.

We can see that the typical response pattern has a space to the west of Africa where a cut-off low could reside - but clearly it's not usually large or strong. Next week's outcome appears to be a 'freak event' where the mid-Atlantic ridge becomes so sharply amplified this Sun-Mon that a much larger that relatively cold air heads all the way down to the Azores and seeds a broad low there.

Signs are, the typical response pattern will attempt to reestablish by the weekend, putting the UK in a mobile setup with brisk westerlies and near normal temps - but by then the CET will have received a considerable upward boost. Starting to wonder if it could finish in the mid to high 12s. That will depend on whether we see a shift to an MJO phase 7 response pattern. The forecast models have been hinting at that in recent days, but inconsistently and tending to push any transition later in time.

Metcheck                        11.86c             Anomaly           1.35c

Netweather                     12.59c             Anomaly           2.2c

Peasedown St John         12.02c             Anomaly           -1.78c.  

Metcheck                  11.87c           Anomaly        1.36c

Netweather               12.58c           Anomaly        2.19c

Peasedown St John      12.01            Anomaly        -1.79c. 

I find so far October had a lot more sunshine and far much better performance than recent often dull summer. Reason is that this month had 70 to 80% sun striking more between prime hours from 9am to 4pm than last summer between the hours was 10 to 20% all the time except heatwaves that allowed all day and 70 to 90% see sun on unuseable unsocial hours from 5am to 8am and from 7pm to past 9pm.

Tomorrow full sun and it seem very easy to get sun after any rain goes.

Metcheck                   11.85c         Anomaly        1.34c

Netweather                12.57c         Anomaly        1.34c 

Peasedown St John   12.0c       Anomaly        -1.78c. 

My hope/guess of a colder second half of October has no chance, any signs in the ens have all but vanished now. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=315&y=100&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

Should of known better that yet another above average borefest was on the way. 

Metcheck                   11.98c           Anomaly        1.47c

Netweather                12.58c           Anomaly        2.19c

Peasedown St John    12.17c          Anomaly        1.63c.  

My hope/guess of a colder second half of October has no chance, any signs in the ens have all but vanished now. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=315&y=100&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

Should of known better that yet another above average borefest was on the way. 

Better for less heating needed and this coming week really helpful to stay warm enough.  I rather have cold weather when it come with snow and subzero temps but otherwise stick to 10-15C temps as much as possible. 1-9C really pointless temperatures and very boring which also need more heating.

Once again today was warmer and sunny after the early clouds clear.  Due to absence of big HP cells which always bring dull weather last summer and Sept which is no use to it had not occur this month.  Better this set-up of zonal pattern and it bring more useable sunny weather in between rain mostly at nights hence why it been mild, a bonus for keeping off as much as possible.

METCHECK                     11.89c              Anomaly           1.3c.

NETWEATHER                 12.68c              Anomaly           2.29c

Peasedown St John         11.9c           Anomaly           -1.9c  

Another stunning October day here warm and sunny. Looks very mild for the rest of the month.  High 12s looks likely. 

Another stunning October day here warm and sunny. Looks very mild for the rest of the month.  High 12s looks likely. 

And so endeth my challenge for another year.

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1582480732768772101

Confirmed now that we could see one of the mildest 2nd halves of Oct on record, due to a rare succession of cut-off lows due west of Europe (usually it's just the one before the pattern moves on!). 

This is particularly unusual for October during a moderate to strong La Nina event such as we have now, which usually sustains a strong, northeast-shifted Azores High, leading to a drier than usual month with temps near average.

An unusually slow-moving MJO transit of the West Pacific looks to be the main culprit for this large deviation. Such events are very difficult to anticipate more than 10 days in advance.

I did account for the possibility in my CET estimate, but erred on the side of caution, which I might well come to regret!

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1582480732768772101

Confirmed now that we could see one of the mildest 2nd halves of Oct on record, due to a rare succession of cut-off lows due west of Europe (usually it's just the one before the pattern moves on!). 

This is particularly unusual for October during a moderate to strong La Nina event such as we have now, which usually sustains a strong, northeast-shifted Azores High, leading to a drier than usual month with temps near average.

An unusually slow-moving MJO transit of the West Pacific looks to be the main culprit for this large deviation. Such events are very difficult to anticipate more than 10 days in advance.

I did account for the possibility in my CET estimate, but erred on the side of caution, which I might well come to regret!

Thanks for the update James.

In your Tweet, what's the orange line? Record warmest?

Metcheck                   11.85c            Anomaly            1.34c

Netweather                12.59c            Anomaly            2.02c

Peasedown St John         12.05c            Anomaly            -1.75c.