On it goes.

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On it goes.

Hints of a cool-down as we enter November. Hopefully a more seasonal month 

Looking particularly moist and breezy for most of us in the next fortnight, I think we'll be going from a rainfall deficit to having too much of the stuff. But at least it will be mild.

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They've been threatening to bring in the new-style map for about a month and have been inviting feedback if you clicked the trial link. It looks as if the new version is now the default - or maybe the only version.

My feedback to them was that I found the way in which the timeline jumps about difficult to handle when you look at a series of time snpshots, and that problem is still there.

I've only looked at this today. The difference between the laptop MetOffice site and the phone app has always to me been very marked. The regional observations now seemed based on the timeline, not sure if anything prior to real time is historic and beyond that is predictive. Perhaps I am just guessing but the German based Weather and Radar app I use does appear to do this. 

As far as Regional variations are concerned it is possible to drill in and out of the map, but I assume this is common knowledge.

What I am impressed with is the surface pressure map on the phone app, a great improvement on the original.

 

WX temp summary; week 1 continuing above norm for Europe and very much so in far W; some cooling in week 2 in the W, larger area of cold showing up in far NE (and not before time). Plenty of rain  for Atlantic coastal countries in both weeks, some showing up in Alps in week 2.

GFS Op: current LP moving up from the SW to become broad area over Scotland 995mb Mon 24th; repeat with new LP off W Ireland to NI Fri 28th; then deep LP near Iceland dominating weather for a week with strong W/NW-lies; this drops S-wards to form extended trough N-S across Britain with twin centres Hebrides and Biscay Sat 5th 990mb; then with input from Iceland this trough re-organises into depression 980mb off W Scotland Mon 7th.

ECM (12z in later stages) ; similar to GFS but LP Fri 28th never gets away from NI  before the LP from Iceland establishes; the latter not as deep and standing further off so winds are more W/SW than W/NW.

GEFS; as yesterday with if anything milder at first, but mean temp decreasing irregularly to just below norm by Mon 7th, and rain from time to time, likely to be heavier towards end of forecast period in S, and especially heavy at any time in far W

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FWIW, the 12z GFS op has a widespread date record for next Friday, with 21C widely across the SE.

MetO has 18C at the same time, so might be worth keeping an eye on...

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FWIW, the 12z GFS op has a widespread date record for next Friday, with 21C widely across the SE.

MetO has 18C at the same time, so might be worth keeping an eye on...

Need full sunshine and se winds to deliver those late warm temps but the apps say no and dish out 24 hours rain even for London as they put 15C night time mean wet night and not clear warm 15C minimum with cloudy wet days and 18C which MetO going for seem realistic.  I had recorded 20C on 31st Oct under very sharp blue skies before. 

This morning's GFS really ramps up the warmth on Friday, albeit it's a little earlier than yesterday's offering - it has 20C here at 1 AM on Friday morning, with an overnight low of 17. The plume is even stronger further east, Margate for example has a low of 19C.

Quite remarkable any time of year, but in the dying days of October? Almost certainly record-breaking if it were to come off... plenty of time for that to change though!

 

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This morning's GFS really ramps up the warmth on Friday, albeit it's a little earlier than yesterday's offering - it has 20C here at 1 AM on Friday morning, with an overnight low of 17. The plume is even stronger further east, Margate for example has a low of 19C.

Quite remarkable any time of year, but in the dying days of October? Almost certainly record-breaking if it were to come off... plenty of time for that to change though!

 

Going to be very wrong between over reacting rain obsessed apps want 24 hours rain or warm sunny 20C in London from GFS.  Night time 13C here to 19C And London 15C to 20C but 24 hrs of rain on apps? Nuneaton see this month at best 17C when we had full sun but cant see 19C be reach under the rain as it would be 12 to 14C instead.  GFS v rain obsessed apps? 

Anyway, back to the charts - and as I'm home again I can wait for ECM to download its 0z. Thanks to Darren for the extended ECM meteograms, but I think I'll find them too time-consuming for a brief review of the whole country; so I'll leave you to research your local area.

WX temps - still very mild for Europe as a whole and doubly so for Atlantic coasts in week 1; week 2 shows more seasonal cold for N Russia and this spreads into Scandinavia as well. Continuing very wet on Atlantic coasts, especially Britain, and also moving further inland to affect France in week 2.

GFS Op - the recent pattern of LPs developing to the SW and running up across Britain continues, with such LPs arriving Mon 24th (995mb, most of Britain), Fri 28th (980mb, off NW Ireland) and Wed 2nd (990mb N England but starting from a more W-ly point). Then a brief lull while a very deep LP develops S of Greenland, filling as it moves towards Britain then explosively deepening 970mb E Scotland Tue 8th.

ECM - resembles GFS until Fri 28th but then promotes HP for most of Britain with 1030mb anchored over the N Sea for week beginning Mon 31st

GEFS - warmer and drier for the SE around Fri 28th, then cooling to just below norm by end of period (8th) and rain returning. The warmth less pronounced and the rain more continuous the further N & W, indeed, little of either trend showing for Glasgow

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Early days, but it's increasingly looking like there will be a bit of an Indian summer towards the closing days of October/opening days of November. The models have semi-consistently been hinting at a southerly around that time.

The 06z GFS actually has a chance for a new November record on the 1st, across East Anglia.

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I thought the 'drought or not' discussion would die away but since everyone seems to be keen on it, and I had a moment to spare, I've moved as many posts as I could find over to the 2022 Drought thread so as to keep them all together

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Early days, but it's increasingly looking like there will be a bit of an Indian summer towards the closing days of October/opening days of November. The models have semi-consistently been hinting at a southerly around that time.

The 06z GFS actually has a chance for a new November record on the 1st, across East Anglia.

21C in Slough when I am there so if not raining then it would fee very warm and no heating needed.

By the looks of things I reckon it’s going to be a cold winter!  😂

I thought the 'drought or not' discussion would die away but since everyone seems to be keen on it, and I had a moment to spare, I've moved as many posts as I could find over to the 2022 Drought thread so as to keep them all together

Its not working DEW.

It will die away, but not just yet... Well not until the models show something really interesting like a bad storm, snow or weather bomb

heading our way.

At the  moment models are perhaps a little "boring" and going off topic when models are say not entertaining to some,

makes the model forum more interesting.

Not my place, but it's just a thought while we are waiting...

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ECM 12z goes properly "scorchio" as November starts.
Looking widely at temps in the high teens/low twenties across a large swathe of England and Wales. Date records very likely if this verified.

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ECM 12z goes properly "scorchio" as November starts.
Looking widely at temps in the high teens/low twenties across a large swathe of England and Wales. Date records very likely if this verified.

My wife mentioned when she was in town today it was very warm and sunny, and like summer hasn't ended

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My wife mentioned when she was in town today it was very warm and sunny, and like summer hasn't ended

I was in Spennymoor, Northumberland, yesterday, covering football for the local radio station, and I was in short sleeves for the whole match. It felt really, really warm.

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ECM 12z goes properly "scorchio" as November starts.
Looking widely at temps in the high teens/low twenties across a large swathe of England and Wales. Date records very likely if this verified.

Indeed 16c 850s in November.  Climate is definitely going loco.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

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Indeed 16c 850s in November.  Climate is definitely going loco.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

That warm finger right from Birmingham area west and today was 18C considering the downpour this morning still very warm in the sunshine.

The apps need to change as they still over reacting with 24 hours rain and no higher than 18C.  That 16C finger in Birmingham should see 22-23C out of it and 21-22C in London.  i will be in Slough that time so no jackets needed.  Good for heating stay off and buying time reduce the heating needed as normally November is when heating start full time every day.