WX temps remain uncertain - some warmth creeping up the W coasts of Europe back in today's forecast, but over the two weeks the cold weather in the far north is confirmed and some offspill from this moving down towards Turkey. A rain band in week 1 from the Atlantic SW of Ireland tapering NE up to the Baltic, this band still in place week 2 but less on the Atlantic and more across N Europe.

GFS Op shows W-ly to begin with but LP getting stuck W of Ireland to  NW of Scotland Sat 15th, and by Tue 18th the former is 995mb off SW Ireland and the latter 990mb N Finland (but with a brief but stormy hang-back over the N Sea). That LP off Ireland drifts S and fills with a week of warm(?) SE-lies lasting and pressure rising over Britain to Wed 26th but then deep LP develops off Norway with N-lies for Britain projecting a trough S-wards. That in turn becomes a closed circulation centre Sat 29th 995 mb Holland.

ECM is similar to GFS

GEFS ens members agree on near norm to Tue 18th then more definite warmth than yesterday centred on Thu 20th, mean 7C above norm but declining to norm again Sat 29th, notable variation setting in after 20th., esp a big dip in op & control in the N later on. Some rain around at most times, more in the W, generally somewhat less than yesterday's forecast and esp v. little in far E

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Indeed. Great job Dew💪👍
About the modelos Run of this morning it seems that Eastern Europe may have a fresh polar LP further SE affecting the Black Sea countries and even central Europe🤔

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NOTE: I will be away from tomorrow for a week. I will try to keep reviews going but they may be briefer or at different times depending on timings of where I'm staying.

WX temp summary - week 1 still v mild near W coasts of Europe, cold in the far N of Europe threatening to move S. Week 2, the cold in the N esp in Russia really expands and there is  general cooling in Europe (incl Turkey) with only S Spain really warm. Rain in week 1 in mid-Atlantic with Britain on the fringes, some rain in France; in week 2 there are two main patches, one near faeroes, one in Adriatic.

GFS Op - current LP near Iceland moving S to become a cut-off low in mid Atlantic Wed 19th 985mb (held in position by loop in jet stream) with a brief deepening as it passes W Ireland on Monday. There is a ridge of HP N-S across Britain between this and an Arctic LP bringing the cold air above into Russia, this ridge truncated by LP moving E near N Scotland 985mb Sun 23rd replaced by HP from the SW and SW-ly winds for all.

ECM - similar to GFS but LP Sun 23rd a bit further S so gales for England rather than Scotland

GEFS - becoming v mild (mean 5C above norm) around 20th, declining to norm at end of forecast period, rain on and off throughout with some big totals in W, but little agreement between ens members after the first few days.

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WX summary charts: week 1 much like yesterday, definitely warmer than norm up through Spain & France to S England but seasonally colld in far N with some of that cold air moving down towards the Black Sea. In week 2, colder in Norway and W Russia, and the colder air is forecast to take a more SW track so freezing conditions appear over the Alps; W coasts of Europe revert to norm. Rain in week 1 on the Atlantic and nearby coasts incl particularly Britain and France; in week 2 a narrow and irregular band Iceland - Scotland - Austria - Greece.

FAX - LP centres all over with fronts affecting all parts of Britain though mainly in the S by Wed; Sun 985 mb Scotland, Mon 987 mb Ireland, Tue 987mb SW Approaches, drifting S-wards

Jet forming a loop with cut-off low in mid Atlantic by Tue 18th, that loop or its successor over Britain Sat 22nd, remaining loosely connected with Britain for a week before reviving over Denmark Sun 30th and Britain in a strong N-ly on its trailing edge

GFS Op - Britain dominated by LP as in FAX above . After the end of the FAX sequence, the main LP reverses and moves NE-wards 990 mb NI Sat 22nd, filling but replaced by LP 985 mb SW Ireland Thu 27th and while that moves E-wards with N-lies for Britain, a deeper one appears in mid-Atlantic Mon 30th.

ECM (12z at time of posting) similar at first to GFS/FAX but LP Mon/TUe is further SW suggesting warmer and perhaps drier weather early next week; then different as instead of LP on Sat 22nd there is HP, up to 1030mb by following day and persisting

GEFS temps mild/warm to Sat 22nd, little agreement between ens members thereafter though mean reverts to seasonal norm. Rain in small (in E) moderate (in W) amounts persistently in one ens member or another, though Scotland has a drier interlude Wed 19th

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We still have the SE, particularly London, racking up daily highs of 18/19C at this stage in Oct on a SWly - the weather change in the past 20 years I've been watching this is just incredible. How is it still easily 18C every day in London mid-October?

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We still have the SE, particularly London, racking up daily highs of 18/19C at this stage in Oct on a SWly - the weather change in the past 20 years I've been watching this is just incredible. How is it still easily 18C every day in London mid-October?

North Atlantic SST anomalies are 1-3c above normal at the moment. Then I think in the south we’re more under the influence of high pressure, meaning more sunshine and calmer conditions.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

 

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WX summary - temps mild/very mild Spain, France, S England, this just about hanging on into week 2 (more so than y'day), the rest of Europe average to mild sandwiched between this and colder weather appearing in the far N, this colder weather becoming more extensive over Scandinavia and NW Russia in week 2 but only pushing further S to a limited extent (unlike y'day). Rain distribution keeps altering, today's week 1 for the Atlantic incl Portugal France and britain; week 2 in two bands, one from Scotland to Baltic, the other from N Spain to Ukraine.

GFS Op - generally LP N of Scotland now, moving S and becoming more localised, W of Ireland Mon, on into SW Approaches by Thu 20th, drifting back N-wards to Irish Sea 985mb Sun 23rd, then moving E to Denmark only to be replaced by another system from Atlantic. Large areas of LP remain centred Labrador/S Greenland and W Russia throughout bringing colder weather into those regions.

ECM (12z - because of timings where I'm staying, likely to be 12z all this week) - as GFS to Thu 20th, but staying W of Ireland Sun 23rd and waiting there for reinforcements from Atlantic eventually merged into large flabby Lp mid N Atlantic Tue 25th. LP not present around Greenland.

GEFS - mild to Sat 22nd, then back to seasonal norm with a few spectacular outliers in each direction, rain in most ens members in moderate quantities throughout with occasional heavier bursts for both N and W

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Another lovely warm autumn day.

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Wx temp summary looks much like yesterday: week 1 mild/v mild in SW Europe and cold in far N, week 2 simply mild in SW and a larger area of cold in the N. If anything the colder area is spreading out E-W rather than pushing S-wards. Rain on the Atlantic and pushing down into France in both weeks, some moving into E Europe later (But this doesn't seem to match the MetO forecasts which are much drier, hope the MetO is right as I'm on a walking holiday in Cornwall).

GFS Op: LP moving SW into mid-Atlantic and becoming a dominant feature before drifting NE again and filling (to Irish Sea with trough to SW Sat 22nd) - FAX however has the LP staying in Atlantic but enlarging. The LP on GFS fills, cool W-lies for a few days, then new trough from W (not focused enough to be seen as distinct LP) before (final frame) Wed 2nd deep LP in Norwegian Sea project strong N-ly across Britain. Ex-hurricane in mid-Atlantic in a week's time.

ECM (mostly 12z) : like GFS at first but then the LP referred to doesn't really fill before the new trough from the Atlantic appears

GEFS: the mild spell forecast recently has contracted to just a day or two Thu 20th after which mean stays near norm with a steadily increasing spread in ens members (nothing dramatic) and rain persistent after that date. 

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Those Wx temperature anomalies for the next 8 days have been red for almost the whole of Europe for days now.

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GFS in 10 days would suggest the reservoirs would be looking a lot happier. Could be some fairly high rain totals with some potentially stalling fronts. Autumn well and truly arrived

A mild outlook but increasingly wet, very wet after mid week onwards.

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GFS in 10 days would suggest the reservoirs would be looking a lot happier. Could be some fairly high rain totals with some potentially stalling fronts. Autumn well and truly arrived

Nice and warm though. 

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GFS in 10 days would suggest the reservoirs would be looking a lot happier. Could be some fairly high rain totals with some potentially stalling fronts. Autumn well and truly arrived

Those nice bridges that appeared from the water and seeing the sunlight will sadly going buried again.  I find it stupid they put reservoirs in wrong places where bridges, roads and villages was.  

 

Those nice bridges that appeared from the water and seeing the sunlight will sadly going buried again.  I find it stupid they put reservoirs in wrong places where bridges, roads and villages was.  

Difficult to store water other than at the bottom of a hill. But, yes, sad that some villages had to suffer.

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WX temp summary with something of an uptick since yesterday: still cold (though not not unseasonably so) in the far N of Europe, but the mild weather, indeed v mild for the time of year, spreads from W coasts of Europe all the way across to Poland and the Black Sea. Quite a temp gradient N-wards up the Baltic. Rain in week 1 mostly out in the Atlantic incl W fringes of Britain & Spain, some in the Alps; in week 2 all the way across N Europe with a very dry area from the Med as far N as Czechia.

GFS Op shows current LP in mid-Atlantic gradually moving closer but filling, eventually making it to Ireland 995mb Tue 25th - for most of that time W Europe under S/SW-lies while large LP sits over Russia bringing in Arctic weather there. New LP develops over mid-Atlantic and deepens considerably 960mb Sun 30th but stays offshore though SW gales can often be expected. It fills and moves N to Rockall 990mb Thu 3rd with a standard W-ly in place running all the way across to the White Sea.

ECM (mostly 12z) is similar to GFS though LP arrives over Britain Mon 24th rather than Tue 25th, and then the LP on the Atlantic is less deep but closer to Britain 985mb close to W Ireland Wed 26th and thence on to Hebrides.

GEFS temps are mild/v mild for a few days and then close to norm though op & control are cooler in a week's time. Rain starting on Friday and pretty well continual thereafter, more in SW with a few big totals there

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Mind blowing really.

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Mind blowing really.

Or to put it another way

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

 

And it's similar for the rest of the globe too. Some blues but far more reds. 

 

 

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Get your raincoats and boats out for the latest GFS - going to get soggy
some truly remarkable warm temps on GFS for November - BBQ might be on the cards

Mind blowing really.

Boring is what it is, I fear Winter will be another non-event for weather enthusiasts.

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