Boring is what it is, I fear Winter will be another non-event for weather enthusiasts.

 Or to put it another way

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

 And it's similar for the rest of the globe too. Some blues but far more reds.  

A changing climate in steady acceleration mode...Top gear will be petrifying !!

WX temp summary - still mild/v mild across Europe with any really cold weather (though not unseasonably so) in the far N. By comparison with yesterday, the extra mildness has retreated towards W coasts, and the Balkans are a bit cooler, though all still above norm for October. Rain in week 1 mostly on Atlantic coastal countries, in week 2 retreating somewhat to NW with patch in Balkans interrupting a large dry area from Spain to Caucasus.

GFS Op - As per Stormchaser's post in the October thread, a sequence of cut-off LPs somewhere to the W of France or Ireland successively moving NE and filling only to be replaced by another; current LP does this Sat 22nd, repeat Mon 24th and Thu 27th but that on Tue 1st suppressed by ridge of HP from the SW after which a more W-ly pattern.

ECM (mostly 12z) - very much like GFS with some differences in central pressure of LPs

GEFS - v mild at first, dropping soon to a level with mean just above norm with fairly good agreement in ens members (op and control going in opposite directions at start of Nov), rain frequent, perhaps just a little drier at start of Nov (some big totals in far W, drier in far E)

I think we need to kerb our enthusiasm for cold weather this year. It MUST be mild!

I don't think anyone is expecting anything remotely cold this Winter, which I suppose means we are not getting our hopes up for once.

 

I don't think anyone is expecting anything remotely cold this Winter, which I suppose means we are not getting our hopes up for once.

I think we will have a cold month or two over winter though probably not significantly cold. Sadly I'm not basing this in anything hugely scientific!

Simply that we've had an extraordinary run of above average months temperature wise and at some point that will end. We've never had a run this long in the whole of the CET record back to 1659 and so past experience suggests that at some point it must change as the longer it goes on for the more opportunities the natural variation of the climate has of throwing up a cold month even against the background of global warming.

Hopefully that will be this December,  January or February...but I wouldn't bet on it🤣

I think we need to kerb our enthusiasm for cold weather this year. It MUST be mild!

We don't get a vote on how we want the winter to go, you know . The weather will do what the weather will do, regardless of what we hope for.

I just hope that, if we do get cold and snow, when the weather enthusiasts on here inevitably get excited, there isn't a whole lot of sanctimonious tut-tutting by others for enjoying the cold & snow.

Sorry to be off topic. What has happened to Met Office UK observations map? 

Sorry to be off topic. What has happened to Met Office UK observations map? 

They've been threatening to bring in the new-style map for about a month and have been inviting feedback if you clicked the trial link. It looks as if the new version is now the default - or maybe the only version.

My feedback to them was that I found the way in which the timeline jumps about difficult to handle when you look at a series of time snpshots, and that problem is still there.

 

I don't think anyone is expecting anything remotely cold this Winter, which I suppose means we are not getting our hopes up for once.

I expect it to be cold this year with a lot of meandering High Pressure sometime getting into the right position for cold. But that’s my optimism and I won’t get too disappointed if it’s mild

 

 

We don't get a vote on how we want the winter to go, you know . The weather will do what the weather will do, regardless of what we hope for.

I just hope that, if we do get cold and snow, when the weather enthusiasts on here inevitably get excited, there isn't a whole lot of sanctimonious tut-tutting by others for enjoying the cold & snow.

Personally given the current situation I'm hoping for a mild winter but will enjoy any cold/snow if or when it comes. I don't imagine that there were many severe weather enthuthiasts back in 1947 that really wanted that cold & snowy winter.

But yes, the weather does what it does and hoping for this that or the other weather type makes no difference. but we really could do without any severe cold this time round.

Models aside. This feels like the coldest end to September I can ever recall.

 

I have a notion that days below 15c do not arrive until around the 15th October.

 

~It is only 11c in London at the moment!

Well...  sort of hoped there would  be a localised reversal of my observations and things woudl warm up, but things are getting silly now.

I do not recognise my own climate anymore.

  Quoting myself is not good...or is it?

Well...  sort of hoped there would  be a localised reversal of my observations and things woudl warm up, but things are getting silly now.

I do not recognise my own climate anymore.

I personally think that, in the right circumstances, it's perfectly fine. And this seems the right sort of circumstance. 

As for the rest of your post, I also thought we'd have a cooler October than we have (just a smidge above ave I went for). 

I can't see the above-CET sequence continuing much longer but, in this climate change era, who knows? 

 

They've been threatening to bring in the new-style map for about a month and have been inviting feedback if you clicked the trial link. It looks as if the new version is now the default - or maybe the only version.

My feedback to them was that I found the way in which the timeline jumps about difficult to handle when you look at a series of time snpshots, and that problem is still there.

Wx temp summary: over Europe still above seasonal norm  with a 'layered' look, cold in the far N, warm in the Med and the rest as the 'meat in the sandwich'; less extra warmth on the western coasts. Rain on Atlantic coasts week 1, persisting in week 2 but less intense though pushing Ne up to baltic.

GFS Op: LPs to the SW repeatedly developing and moving NE to affect Britain as they decay (Fri 21st, Mon 24th and Thu 27th) before the N Atlantic wakes up and introduces a vigorous W/NW flow with LPs N of Scotland (Sun 30th, Fri 4th)

ECM (mostly 12z): as GFS though the last of the LPs from the SW is deeper and eventually becomes a N Atlantic depression in its own right.

GEFS: gradual if somewhat irregular decline of mean temp to just below norm by Fri 4th; rain in most ens members at most times throughout though totals small for E England

Sorry to be off topic. What has happened to Met Office UK observations map? 

This link shows the UK but I haven't found one for the regionals.

UK last 24 hours weather - Met Office

 

 

I personally think that, in the right circumstances, it's perfectly fine. And this seems the right sort of circumstance. 

As for the rest of your post, I also thought we'd have a cooler October than we have (just a smidge above ave I went for). 

I can't see the above-CET sequence continuing much longer but, in this climate change era, who knows? 

Thanks.

Indeed.  Everything to play for these days.  

What does a cool maritime climate become if its winters get warmer and wetter, and its summers get hotter and dryer?  (Oxford comma there )

Latest CFS run shows what could happen ! Obviously it changes run to run but if you like FI charts then get a look

another cold looking CFS, all with pinch of salt but getting to that time of year when the interest gets awakened 

WX temp summary: all of Europe continues above seasonal average with mild/very mild on Atlantic coasts and cold, though not unreasonably so in the far NE, in both weeks; a slight expansion of the cold area in week 2. Rain persisting heavily on Atlantic coastal countries with small patches in the far east of Europe; very dry from Poland to Ukraine in week 2.

GFS Op: LPs developing off Spain or W Ireland and running NE until Fri 28th when a deeper and more extensive LP in mid N Atlantic 960mb; this never far from W Ireland and with similar central pressure to Fri 4th, then filling and moving across Scotland leaving a trough trailing out to the SW.

ECM (mostly 12z): similar to GFS to Fri 28th when mid Atlantic LP not as deep (though higher pressure over France means SW gales even stronger) but then this LP moves N and takes up the usual autumnal position over Iceland with strong W-lies.

GEFS: much as yesterday with temps decreasing  gradually but irregularly from mild now to just below norm Mon 6th, and rain showing up on most days in one ens member or another. Some big totals in SW but amounts in e.g. East Anglia very small.

 

They've been threatening to bring in the new-style map for about a month and have been inviting feedback if you clicked the trial link. It looks as if the new version is now the default - or maybe the only version.

My feedback to them was that I found the way in which the timeline jumps about difficult to handle when you look at a series of time snpshots, and that problem is still there.

Looks as though it's another example of a disimprovement - a change declared by management to be an improvement which actually makes things worse than they were before.

On the subject of model output, the weather appears to be unpredictably changeable.