I know we've had a fair bit of rain, but I still think it's not enough . 

I was out for a walk on the Downs today, and the semi-permanent pools fed by the spring at the bottom of the Devil's Dyke nr Brighton were all still dry bar the lowest, several feet below the level of the others.

Over 35 mm to kick off November has, finally, led to local streams and rivers rising into the normal range for the time of year.

In fact, some are at the highest I've seen first-hand since Oct last year!

This comes after an Oct of very near average rainfall but above average evaporation and plant uptake owing to the exceptionally high temperatures.

Signs of a dry spell starting next Thu, eyes will then be on how well the waterway levels hold up while storages refill (and of course, how much those refill).

Concerning situation further west, where long-term rainfall input is particularly important, meaning that long-term deficits hit particularly hard.

Seasonal modelling generally suggests a higher than usual chance of a drier than usual winter to come. Even Nov-Jan in some cases, which is notable considering how the opening third of Nov is shaping up.

 

Sorry to continue off thread toipic, but we actually need to start planting woods from southern European species.  Note that the Holm oak (Quercus ilex)  is now generating as a native tree (in London anyway)  Drought tolerant.  If nature took its course without our input, we would see our woodland species shunted north and the new species taking over.  We live maybe  as much as a thousand miles or so further south now.

It was first introduced in the 1500s and supports plenty of wildlife. It's a good coastal tree for shelterbelts in the South.

A hydrologist I know reckons that we need 18 months average to above average rainfall to make good the deficit.

Thames Water has lifted its hosepipe ban after a month's worth of rain in the first two weeks of this month.

Hopefully they can also stop releasing raw sewage into the once beautiful and pristine River Windrush, which has been all but destroyed.

Thames Water has lifted its hosepipe ban after a month's worth of rain in the first two weeks of this month.

We received a similar notification from Southern Water yesterday, explaining that the local 'temporary restrictions' (qu: not 'ban') had been lifted at the start of the month.

Guess they thought- norush; noone can swim out to their hosepipe at the mo' anyway.

We’ve had flood warnings on our local river for over a week and it’s running very high and muddy but I’m not sure we’ve had enough rain to end the drought.  

Sod’s Law we started building our granny annex three weeks ago and got ahead of schedule due to the good weather.  Just as well as it changed and the builders have lost three days to the heavy persistent rain.  I expected to be living on a building sight for a while but it’s an absolute mud bath.  At least it’s kept the dust down!  

Here in Edinburgh, we have had a wetter than average autumn, but each month has never actually been all that much wetter than average here in the SE of Scotland, especially in comparison with the rest of the UK.

Indeed, much of the reason why this month has been wetter than average has been simply down to one day when we had more that 30mm of rain here in Edinburgh, although this was enough to bring some flooding here in NW Edinburgh. Had it not been for that one day, we would actually have been struggling to get a wetter than average month this time.

In addition to that, September actually had a below average number of rain days days and despite all of the rain which has been around just recently, it is still by no means that we will end up with an above average number of official rain days during this month in this part of the world.

As I write, there has probably been enough recent rainfall to ward off any potential water issues for now, but we continue to remain a very long way off from even getting close to making up the vast rainfall deficit which until the start of this autumn, had been building up right since the spring of 2021. That is shown by the fact that even as things stand, we still need at least another 169.0 mm of rain to fall at Edinburgh Gogarbank between now and the end of this year in order for this year to end up being wetter than average there in terms of the actual rainfall amount with at least another 171.6 mm of rain being needed at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh between now and the end of this year in order for this year to go down as being wetter than average there overall in terms of the actual rainfall amount.

For other locations such as SE England and NE Scotland, there has probably been enough recent rainfall now for there to be no real issues with that but I don't think that this is the case here in SE Scotland where we are clearly not out of the woods just yet. Whilst the rest of this month still looks unsettled, it is unlikely to be as wet here as it has been just recently.

Furthermore, the models are pointing towards a possible big build of high pressure going into December which might then bring us a very dry start to the coming winter. If that happens and we then go into a dry winter followed by a dry spring, we could very well be in serious trouble again as regards to the overall water scarcity situation going into next summer, especially here in the SE of Scotland.

We’ve had flood warnings on our local river for over a week and it’s running very high and muddy but I’m not sure we’ve had enough rain to end the drought.  

Sod’s Law we started building our granny annex three weeks ago and got ahead of schedule due to the good weather.  Just as well as it changed and the builders have lost three days to the heavy persistent rain.  I expected to be living on a building sight for a while but it’s an absolute mud bath.  At least it’s kept the dust down!  

Drought well over now in here since October.  Very wet everywhere and no dry breaks for a long while.