Here in Edinburgh, we have had a wetter than average autumn, but each month has never actually been all that much wetter than average here in the SE of Scotland, especially in comparison with the rest of the UK.
Indeed, much of the reason why this month has been wetter than average has been simply down to one day when we had more that 30mm of rain here in Edinburgh, although this was enough to bring some flooding here in NW Edinburgh. Had it not been for that one day, we would actually have been struggling to get a wetter than average month this time.
In addition to that, September actually had a below average number of rain days days and despite all of the rain which has been around just recently, it is still by no means that we will end up with an above average number of official rain days during this month in this part of the world.
As I write, there has probably been enough recent rainfall to ward off any potential water issues for now, but we continue to remain a very long way off from even getting close to making up the vast rainfall deficit which until the start of this autumn, had been building up right since the spring of 2021. That is shown by the fact that even as things stand, we still need at least another 169.0 mm of rain to fall at Edinburgh Gogarbank between now and the end of this year in order for this year to end up being wetter than average there in terms of the actual rainfall amount with at least another 171.6 mm of rain being needed at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh between now and the end of this year in order for this year to go down as being wetter than average there overall in terms of the actual rainfall amount.
For other locations such as SE England and NE Scotland, there has probably been enough recent rainfall now for there to be no real issues with that but I don't think that this is the case here in SE Scotland where we are clearly not out of the woods just yet. Whilst the rest of this month still looks unsettled, it is unlikely to be as wet here as it has been just recently.
Furthermore, the models are pointing towards a possible big build of high pressure going into December which might then bring us a very dry start to the coming winter. If that happens and we then go into a dry winter followed by a dry spring, we could very well be in serious trouble again as regards to the overall water scarcity situation going into next summer, especially here in the SE of Scotland.
Edited by user
22 November 2022 21:05:07
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Reason: Not specified
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.