NHC has Danielle as a hurricane 1400 miles from Land's End on Thursday;[next bit corrected - I obviously was still asleep at 7am] moving into mid N Atlantic but drawing in TS Earl has formed off the Leeward Islands and is recurving NE-wards to join the party. Earl is 975mb at Land's End on Tue 13th 

Discussion here https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/09/the-atlantic-finally-wakes-up-danielle-forms-far-to-the-north/ - also a review of Hinnamor, which was a cat 5 supertyphoon in the Pacific and dumped a lot of rain on the Philippines, fortunately not landfalling.  It looks like still being a major storm when it reaches South Korea on Monday

NHC has Danielle moving steadily ENE-wards but declining to TS status 1100 miles from Land's End by Thu, covering about 300 miles/day by then and accelerating. TS Earl following a copycat track passing E of Bermuda at that time and forecast to upgrade to a hurricane

But see Model Output thread for latest synoptics

Meanwhile, in the Pacific, Hinnamnor has resurged to cat 3/4 after nearly dropping out. Animated chart video showing impact on S Korea at https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1566448599344480261/video/1 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/023754.shtml?cone#contents

So should we be getting worried about Danielle? The indications seem to be that it will pass to the South but a small Northward shift would put many of us in the firing line. Admittedly, it will have been downgraded to a TS by friday but, as far as I can see at least, it won't have gone extra tropical even by Saturday. Hopefully, we will see a Southward correction before the weekend.  

NHC now taking Danielle a bit slower and further N than shown this morning; 580miles W of Ireland Sat midday

NHC now taking Danielle a bit slower and further N than shown this morning; 580miles W of Ireland Sat midday

Danielle can't make up her mind where she wants to go. Now taking a sharp turn South East toward Iberia on the latest NHC. forecast. Nothing for us to worry about now, I think.

 

Danielle can't make up her mind where she wants to go. Now taking a sharp turn South East toward Iberia on the latest NHC. forecast. Nothing for us to worry about now, I think.

See also model output thread - she's keeping all the models guessing!

 

See also model output thread - she's keeping all the models guessing!

Indeed, she is. Yes, I saw your rundown in MOD. However, I'm just glad to see that while we might still need to keep an eye on Danielle, the hurricane now looks very unlikely to have the kind of more serious impact on us that had looked a possibility.

In the meantime, the season is finally getting busy with a tropical wave over Africa possibly leading to development next week to add to the disturbance in the far Eastern Atlantic which also seems likely to develop into a TS in the coming days.  

NHC this evening
- Danielle to die out as it approaches NW Spain
- Earl to become major hurricane briefly while heading into N Atlantic  (gfs 18z agrees)
- new storm with 70% chance of development halfway between Africa and Caribbean - no sign of it emerging onto Atlantic charts later
- even newer storm just leaving Africa with rated 30% chance of development

- Kay nearly getting to San Diego but repelled by the Hp over California which has been creating heat records there, may still give useful rain to S California

- Hinnamnor dying out after causing a score of deaths in S Korea, most of them drownings in an underground car park
- New typhoon Muifa to hit Japan's Riu-kyu islands at weekend, maybe China later

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/09/hurricane-kay-lashes-baja-headed-very-close-to-southern-california/ 

- new storm with 70% chance of development halfway between Africa and Caribbean - no sign of it emerging onto Atlantic charts later

This storm's prospects downgraded sharply to 30%. The drier air mentioned in the link in the previous post having more of an effect than originally predicted?

Egg on face for the professional hurricane watchers who predicted an above-average season this year. The actual situation is:

With the season half over, we have seen 5 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes – the first time since 2014 that no intense hurricanes have been observed by the season’s halfway point. The 30-year average for this point in the season is 8.1 named storms, 3.4 hurricanes, and 1.5 major hurricanes.

and no disturbances at all today, normally the peak of the season

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/09/little-damage-in-california-from-kay-the-atlantic-goes-quiet/

The problem seems to be the persistent high pressure which on its northern edge gave us SW-lies and a prolonged heat wave, was also on its southern edge sweeping dry air out of the Sahara to the region where tropical waves need moisture to develop.

That's the 'immediate cause'. But as to why this area of high pressure has been so persistent this year ...?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents

Funny how these things go. Yesterday, this disturbance had a 20% chance of development over the next few days. Now, it's a tropical depression and well on its way to being the next named storm. Doesn't look like the winds will be too severe and on current track, it should decline to a depression over Hispaniola. Then again, it has surprised already and it could deveop further if its track were to remain away from land. 

It's now TS Fiona, not forecast by NHC to develop as more than a TS at least until Monday, as it tangles with some of the more mountainous Caribbean islands. But  once clear of these, GFS has it emerging on to the Atlantic as a full-blown hurricane by the end of the week

Fiona not developing much, dry air still having effects in the Atlantic. Meanwhile in the Pacific, Muifa does a direct hit on Shanghai, Nome in Alaska threatened by near-record storm surge from Merbok, and Nanmadol promising damage in japan

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/09/tropical-storm-fiona-a-heavy-rain-threat-to-leeward-islands-and-beyond%ef%bf%bc/ 

Surprised not more commentary in here on Nanmadol given the language being used in the latest news bulletins;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-62938608

Is this really as exceptional as it sounds from a Japan pov?

Wow a BBC article regarding weather that doesn't have some reference to global warming/ climate change. Absolutely shocking 🤣

Detailed projection for Nanmadol https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/09/fierce-nanmadol-threatens-japan-fiona-rakes-the-leewards/

There looks to be a major problem with storm surge as well as the usual rainfall and storm force winds associated with a a force 2/3 hurricane as predicted at landfall. It may well become the most expensive ever in terms of damage. A maximum state of emergency has been declared and (BBC) 3 million people have been told to leave their homes.

Meanwhile Fiona remains unexpectedly strong with rainfall in the teens of inches in the Caribbean. IT is expected to approach Bermuda as a full-on hurricane  on Thursday and then run NE parallel to the US coast. GFS eventually puts it on collision course with Iceland, presumably as ex-hurricane by then

On a normal news day, the Hurricane in the Caribbean would be a big story

Also, as others have noted, the rainfall east of #Fiona’s core is nothing short of catastrophic. Almost the ENTIRE island is covered by precipitation reflectivity returns of 40dbz or higher which has already caused some destructive flash flooding with even more rain to come… https://t.co/QK1h79mRwW pic.twitter.com/bePgjFb2VM

— KeviShader (@KeviShader) September 18, 2022

Updates with rainfall totals and wind speeds for Fiona and Nanmadol here

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/09/hurricane-fiona-deluges-puerto-rico-typhoon-nandamol-hits-japan/