WX summary - a bit of a downgrade today; most of W Europe a little below average week 1, then in week 2 warmth in the far SE (Black Sea) pushes some rather cool stuff across to Scandinavia, Uk, even N Spain. The warm patch shown yesterday over the low countries has disappeared. Week 1 rain from Spain to Alps to Poland, dry either side; week 2 extra rain appearing N of this band in patches for UK & Scandinavia.
Jet not doing much around the UK; strong stream through the Med from May 2nd
GFS op - LP moving SE to Biscay 995mb Sat 23rd with E-lies as previously well forecast, drifting N and becoming part of an extended trough SW-NE across UK by Tue 26th. Pressure than rises 1030mb Scotland Fri 29th which slowly drifts NW (1065mb ! Greenland Tue 3rd) with N/NE-lies back in the forecast which drive a cold LP centre S to Denmark 995mb Sat 7th. Week 2 looks quite different and colder than yesterday.
GEFS - from Mon 25th mean consistently a little below norm and continual small amounts of rain - but the op (&control) described above are really extreme cold outliers from Tue 3rd so it may never happen. Drier in the far N though Inverness snow row figures back to low teens around the 3rd.
ECM - like GFS though HP doesn't move quite as far to the NW thus less suggestion of N-lies (though the worst of these shown on GFS are beyond the ECM time frame)
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Chichester 12m asl