WX temp summary as yesterday; no dramatic changes, but a bit of a see-saw with warmth working N over the Balkans balanced by something a bit cooler moving S from Iceland. Week 1 very dry from Belgium up to Norway with patches of rain NW, SW and SE of that area. Week 2 only dry in very far E, significant rain for France, Balkans, E Russia. Perhaps the temp see-saw less pronounced; and add England to the patches of rain in week 2.

Jet also much the same as yesterday

GFS; current HP splits into two centres, one over Norway, one in the Atlantic off Spain leaving UK in a col. By Friday 21st LP from N Atlantic moves into the slack pressure of the col to become 1000mb Ireland, deepening over the weekend of Sun 24th, and then drifting across England and up to Norway. By Thu 27th the col is reversed, the UK sitting between LP centres, one by the Azores and the other in the Baltic. On Monday 2nd these centres have linked up into a broad trough with axis across S England.

GEFS; rather boring? mean temp dropping back to norm in a couple of days and staying there for the next fortnight - ens members spread as time goes on but less than usual (op is one of the coldest towards end). Rain around on most days from Mon 18th but no great amounts except Scotland gets a one-off bonus burst at first.

ECM; similar to GFS though from Sun 24th the LP doesn't drift onwards but links up with more LP on the Atlantic and (12z at time of posting) deepens off SW Ireland Mon 25th

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WX summary; yesterday's see-saw is halted; week 1 much as at the present, near norm even mild for Atlantic countries, below norm in band from Spain to (esp) Balkans and N Russia, warm around Caspian; development in week 2 is for resurgence of cold air from N Russia down to the Caspian leaving W Europe unmoved. Week 1 dry for E Britain up to Scandi with rain around the edges of this area; week2 this dry area just about hanging on with rain from Germany SE-wards (a shift from yesterday's forecast when the wet patch included UK and France)

GFS op; shallow trough of LP for UK Mon/Tue 18/19th,brief pressure rise before Atlantic LP slips SE-wards to Spain 1000mb Fri 22nd with E-lies for all, drifting back NE-wards and filling as pressure rises over UK 1025mb Fri 29th. That HP cell moves N and E-lies are back Mon 2nd, witha hint of colder weather from the N on Tue 3rd.

GEFS; temps soon back to norm and staying there through to Tue 3rd, though perhaps a little cooler later on, and a little rain at almost any time

ECM; similar to GFS

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WX summary; band of  below average temps from Spain to C Europe to N Russia still in place for week 1; warmer over Balkans but cooler over Finland week 2. Dry over Scandinavia week 1 with areas of rain all around and indeed stretching down to the Med week 1; drier on Atlantic week 2 and a narrower area of rain Spain - Alps - Finland. Wet for England week 1, damp for all Britain week 2

Jet - nothing much near UK until beginning of May when loops appear, quite strong but from random directions in the region of UK

GFS - trough extending S over UK nearly gets pinched out midweek, but revives as LP over Biscay 1000mb Fri 22nd which with HP 1035mb Iceland gives E-lies for all. This LP/HP system shuffles around a bit; by Fri 29th LP is 1015mb E France and HP is 1030 mb Rockall with winds turning to the NE, quite strong at times, and finally on Wed 4th LP is 995mb Czechia and HP 1025mb W of Ireland with N-lies esp on East Coast.

GEFS - mean temps near norm through to Wed 4th but some v cold outliers appearing near the end esp in NE. Small amounts of rain at any time, rather more in SW.

ECM - develops differently from GFS after Sun 24th as LP moves N from Biscay to England looking like a shallow showery trough but then converges with GFS again by Thu 28th, though the pressure gradient is not as steep and winds lighter.

 

P.S. Hat-trick; 3 days without reply!

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It looks as though the lack of rain in the SE (are we allowed to call it a drought yet?) is set to continue for the forseeable.  The plants in my garden are definitely short of water, and I've had to resort to copious use of the hosepipe to get them to put on any fresh spring growth.

The EA Water Situation Report shows that for the Medway area the rainfall in March was 48% of LTA, and for the last 3 months was 61% of LTA. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067738/Kent_and_South_London_Water_Situation_Report_March_2022.pdf

(I was intending to post this reply before I saw DEW's comment above about no replies for 3 days, but I'm pleased to be able to report my continuing interest in the content of this thread.)

 

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Looking at the model charts at the moment gives me something of a "If only it was December/January/February" feeling about them.

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I think the outlook looks very average and uninteresting for the next 2 weeks or so at least.

But then again the weather has been mostly uninteresting for the last year or so which I guess doesn't help generate many comments on here...

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WX summary; band of  below average temps from Spain to C Europe to N Russia still in place for week 1; warmer over Balkans but cooler over Finland week 2. Dry over Scandinavia week 1 with areas of rain all around and indeed stretching down to the Med week 1; drier on Atlantic week 2 and a narrower area of rain Spain - Alps - Finland. Wet for England week 1, damp for all Britain week 2

Jet - nothing much near UK until beginning of May when loops appear, quite strong but from random directions in the region of UK

GFS - trough extending S over UK nearly gets pinched out midweek, but revives as LP over Biscay 1000mb Fri 22nd which with HP 1035mb Iceland gives E-lies for all. This LP/HP system shuffles around a bit; by Fri 29th LP is 1015mb E France and HP is 1030 mb Rockall with winds turning to the NE, quite strong at times, and finally on Wed 4th LP is 995mb Czechia and HP 1025mb W of Ireland with N-lies esp on East Coast.

GEFS - mean temps near norm through to Wed 4th but some v cold outliers appearing near the end esp in NE. Small amounts of rain at any time, rather more in SW.

ECM - develops differently from GFS after Sun 24th as LP moves N from Biscay to England looking like a shallow showery trough but then converges with GFS again by Thu 28th, though the pressure gradient is not as steep and winds lighter.

 

P.S. Hat-trick; 3 days without reply!

Climate had changed a lot here lately, we no longer get what we should be getting on each season so less interest nowadays.  Any interesting weather show on the charts had been taken away 100% and hit us just bland cloudy, wind and rainy and extreme temperate temperatures all year.  Thanks for your input anyway.

Classic springtime scenario with high pressure giving NW Scotland the best weather but dragging diabolical sea fog, drizzle, and NE winds down the coast here, it will struggle to top 10C until well into May

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WX summary: week 1 below norm in Spain and separately from central Europe up to N Russia while Scandi is above. Week 2 shows Spain warming up while Iceland and Sandi cool down. Not much change for UK temps. Dry in Scandi and UK week 1, also N Africa , with rain between these areas. In week 2 the dry area over Scandi shrinks and that over N Africa tentatively moves N with more rain blowing in from the Atlantic to affect UK

Jet: weak loops around Britain in the first week of May - until then most of the action is well to the south

GFS op: current trough over Britain superseded by area of LP moving SE-wards to Biscay 1000mb Fri 22nd, moving N and filling so the initial E-lies weaken and become confined to England to Fri 29th. New LP then moves SE from Iceland and sets up near N Ireland for the following week, close enough for strong SW-lies around Wed 4th. Pressure remains fairly high over W Europe and yesterday's forecast of N/NE-lies has disappeared.

GEFS: in the S temps near norm or from time to time above until the beginning of May when cooler, led by op & control output; dry at first, small amounts of rain from Sat 23rd (rather more in SW). in the N, temps always nearer norm (but the NE is also cooler in May) and small amounts of rain at any time esp in NW

ECM: The LP after Fri 22nd doesn't fill and is 1000mb N France Sun 24th with E-ly gales for England and eventually becomes a trough from mid-Atlantic to Baltic, which does however fill and drift S-wards but always anchored to a deep LP over the Azores, and with little evidence of HP over Europe.

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GFS showing some classic 'IOIWW' charts with wasted synoptics for late April - but they're mostly easterlies, so not all bad for MBY. The 850's are rarely that cold, either, being around -2c to +2c most of the run.

 

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I think serious drought looks like the problem this Spring, much as last year. Last rainfall here 10 days ago and only 15mm for the month so far and unlikely to increase much for the next two weeks. Better than the zero rainfall of last April but still becoming a problem I fear, especially for farmers and gardeners.

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I think serious drought looks like the problem this Spring, much as last year. Last rainfall here 10 days ago and only 15mm for the month so far and unlikely to increase much for the next two weeks. Better than the zero rainfall of last April but still becoming a problem I fear, especially for farmers and gardeners.

We invested in huge water butts last year, we can store 1000l now. But have already started to use them.

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I think serious drought looks like the problem this Spring, much as last year. Last rainfall here 10 days ago and only 15mm for the month so far and unlikely to increase much for the next two weeks. Better than the zero rainfall of last April but still becoming a problem I fear, especially for farmers and gardeners.

 

Without seeing figures, I'd be confident that here the rainfall totals are below average for the month - but not desperately so. We've had regular rainfall (Sunday night most recently) and the soil is moist.

I'd say generally it's been perfect early-season growing conditions in this region.

 

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GFS showing some classic 'IOIWW' charts with wasted synoptics for late April - but they're mostly easterlies, so not all bad for MBY. The 850's are rarely that cold, either, being around -2c to +2c most of the run.

 

Easterlies are great as they deliver blue skies from the Continent as the flow passed mainland Europe and short sea tracking so cloud not a issue only if veer to NE then we get cloudy mornings then clear skies late morning onward.  There was absent of Spring easterly last year especially in May.

 

Easterlies are great as they deliver blue skies from the Continent as the flow passed mainland Europe and short sea tracking so cloud not a issue only if veer to NE then we get cloudy mornings then clear skies late morning onward.  There was absent of Spring easterly last year especially in May.

It depends where you are and what time of year it is. Easterlies in spring are notorious for being very dull across much of the eastern half of the country. The West usually does better because the Pennines block a decent amount of the cloud.

The best easterlies around here tend to come in early summer, I find.

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It depends where you are and what time of year it is. Easterlies in spring are notorious for being very dull across much of the eastern half of the country. The West usually does better because the Pennines block a decent amount of the cloud.

The best easterlies around here tend to come in early summer, I find.

 

2018 was an absolute peach

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We invested in huge water butts last year, we can store 1000l now. But have already started to use them.

We have three but nowhere the same capacity (1000l -wow  ). 1 is already empty (because of it's location we tend to use it more), but we've been supplementing the other 2 with some mains  simply because we want to use the rainwater for developing plants in the greenhouse and also houseplants.

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Looking at the model charts at the moment gives me something of a "If only it was December/January/February" feeling about them.

Tell me about it! - You can tell we the NAO and AO are negative and the zonal winds are in reverse....as you rightly said if only.....

...It was winter! - This is classic retrogression as well.  Waste of an easterly which will provide nothing more than 10-12c end of the week and cloud with drizzle and temepratures struggling to get into double figures along the East coast. - Typical!

I seriously can't help but think of why oh why!? We get such eye candy blocked like pattern set ups for cold and snow when we are approaching May!?

Where were these charts/set ups between November and March?

Oh well - nice to see but just a pity (as is often the case like usual) it will be nothing noteworthly to discuss from a cold and snowy perspective as it's too late in the season for cold and snow and this set up is pretty rubbish from a warm perspective or for warm or hot weather fans as well as it will be too early in the season for an easterly winds to bring us a heatwave! Meh! 

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Today's WX summary temps given an upgrade from yesterday with week 1 only well  below norm in Spain and N Russia and in week 2 warmth working in from SW and SE leaving Finland area as the cold patch. Even some springlike stuff across France just abouts affecting SE UK. Band of rain in week 1 from Atlantic across France to Balkans and Belarus, pushing further S to Turkey week 2. Dry for UK week 1, very dry week 2 including much of N Europe. Water shortages threatening?

Jet not doing anything to speak of near UK for next two weeks, main action is over Spain.

GFS op forecast like yesterday for week 1 but changed for week 2. Atlantic LP dives S E to Biscay 1000mb by Fri 22nd with E-lies for UK. It moves N still 1000mb Belgium Mon 25th and then fills. Pressure rise significant over UK by Thu 28th becoming centred Shetland 1035mb Tue 3rd weakening and drifting a little E-wards later allowing SE-lies, but still no LP close by.

GEFS temps near norm - perhaps a little cooler around mid-weeks Wed 27th and Wed 4th (control a v cold outlier at the end with quite a wide spread by then) with bits and pieces of rain in most ens members from time to time. Could well be locally colder on E coast but not showing up on available GEFS locations.

ECM is similar to GFS but suggesting that HP will set up to W of Scotland rather than to N.

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Today's WX summary temps given an upgrade from yesterday with week 1 only well  below norm in Spain and N Russia and in week 2 warmth working in from SW and SE leaving Finland area as the cold patch. Even some springlike stuff across France just abouts affecting SE UK. Band of rain in week 1 from Atlantic across France to Balkans and Belarus, pushing further S to Turkey week 2. Dry for UK week 1, very dry week 2 including much of N Europe. Water shortages threatening?

Jet not doing anything to speak of near UK for next two weeks, main action is over Spain.

GFS op forecast like yesterday for week 1 but changed for week 2. Atlantic LP dives S E to Biscay 1000mb by Fri 22nd with E-lies for UK. It moves N still 1000mb Belgium Mon 25th and then fills. Pressure rise significant over UK by Thu 28th becoming centred Shetland 1035mb Tue 3rd weakening and drifting a little E-wards later allowing SE-lies, but still no LP close by.

GEFS temps near norm - perhaps a little cooler around mid-weeks Wed 27th and Wed 4th (control a v cold outlier at the end with quite a wide spread by then) with bits and pieces of rain in most ens members from time to time. Could well be locally colder on E coast but not showing up on available GEFS locations.

ECM is similar to GFS but suggesting that HP will set up to W of Scotland rather than to N.

Thanks.

Hoping the pressure rise next week materialises and that tempers the effects of the easterly.  Friday to Sunday could be quite grim, and might be really windy in places.

 

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