Surprised to be at the cooler end of the predictions ... was expecting one or two of us to stick necks out and predict a proper cold March

I had the same experience last month - the spread of estimates was near 1°C higher than I'd been anticipating, which really caught me out and amplified the impact of the large error. Even with all the extended cold signals at hand, I don't think I'd have predicted so low if I'd known.

Surprised to be at the cooler end of the predictions ... was expecting one or two of us to stick necks out and predict a proper cold March

Iam suprised to that so many have gone so high. Personally i cant see how this month is going to end up much above 6c

Met Office Hadley        3.9c       Anomaly       -0.8c provisional to 6th

Metcheck                     2.99c     Anomaly       -3.19c

Netweather                  4.0c       Anomaly      -2.31c

 Peasedown st John     4.0c      Anomaly      -2.9c. 

Met Office Hadley         3.5c        Anomaly       -1.0c provisional to 7th

Metcheck                      3.06c      Anomaly       -3.10c

Netweather                   3.86c      Anomaly       -2.45c

Peasedown St John      3.2c       Anomaly       -3.7c.     

Iam suprised to that so many have gone so high. Personally i cant see how this month is going to end up much above 6c

Don't underestimate the power of a warm spell in the 2nd half of March...

The GFS 06z gave us a likely overly extreme version of that but get this - it gives me a rough CET estimate in the low 6s as soon as 17th and it only gets higher from there.

Much higher, in fact, reaching the dizzy mid-7s for 22nd-23rd.

Odds are, we don't see the high set up in such a warm position and stick there for a week or so - but it shows the possibilities that this time of year brings.

12z GFS is looking much more realistic - but still good for a CET well into the 6s by 21st. Bearing in mind we usually see a climb of the CET in the final third, I think there's plenty of scope for a final CET in the mid-6s to mid-7s.

BUT...

The ECM runs of late can't be ignored. They've been tending to keep the Azores High further west, with the UK staying predominantly chilly through to at least 16th. Despite the mode's tendency to over-amplify a bit in the 7-10 day range, it's keeping me nervous!

Met Office Hadley         3.9c        Anomaly      -0.9c provisional to 8th

Metcheck                      3.31c      Anomaly      -2.85c

Netweather                   3.97c      Aomaly        -2.34c

Peasedown St John      3.9c      Anomaly      -3.0c.

Well the outlook is disappointingly cool . Is there a chance we've all gone to high? 

Well the outlook is disappointingly cool . Is there a chance we've all gone to high? 

There is certainly a chance of that. GEFS in particular is showing a wide spread of possible outcomes, largely dependent on the position of the high pressure. Some of the colder options would result in a CET below 6C. But some of the milder options could result in pleasant spring-like weather. Right now, I think I'd be happier if I'd predicted close to 6C. 

Met Office Hadley         4.2c       Anomaly      -0.7c provisional to 9th

Metcheck                      3.65c     Anomaly      -2.51c

Netweather                   4.22c     Anomaly      -2.09c

Peasedown St John     4.8c       Anomaly      -2.1c.  

Subtle shifts having a big impact on surface temps for later next week.

GFS 00z went on to bring further chilly conditions, 06z becomes pleasantly mild.

Not a good situation for my nerves . Honestly, anywhere from high 4s to low 7s °C seems fair game at this time, for the final CET.

I'm near the top end of that spread .

Met Office Hadley         4.6c       Anomaly        -0.4c provisional to 1oth

Metcheck                      4.17c     Anomaly        -1.99c

Netweather                   4.64c     Anomaly        -1.67c

Peasedown St John     4.9c       Anomaly        -2.0c.

More wildly varying outcomes in today's modelling. Some are disturbingly cold!

Having a gander at the MJO projections, I think I can see a reason. You can hardly have more scatter than this!

So, the models are picking outcomes out of a hat, which have big implications for how a strong area of high pressure moves about in our vicinity next week.

Outcomes with a more active MJO through phase 1 (further from the middle circle, in the triangle labelled '1') support north(west)ward movement of the high, setting up cold feeds from the northeast or north.

Ones with a less active MJO support more of a UK-focused high, with some very pleasant weather on offer, albeit with cool nights, perhaps a bit cold in the southeast with a risk of frost.

Those which shift the MJO on through phase 2 instead favour a shift of that high pressure toward Central Europe, placing us in a fairly warm regime. Not long ago, some of the GFS runs were going down that route. Oh how I dream of those charts .

Incidentally, this is another of those simply unpredictable situations! 

Met Office Hadley        4.9c.      Anomaly    -0.1c provisional to 11th

Metcheck                     4.32c     Anomaly    -1.84c

Netweather                  4.94c     Anomaly    -1.37c

Peasedown St John    4.57c     Anomaly     -2.33c 

Here is the latest March CET tracker

CET just reaching above 6C by the 26th based on the latest output.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Met Office Hadley        5.1c      Anomaly       -0.0c provisional to 12th

Metcheck                     4.47c    Anomaly       -1.69c

Netweather                  5.09c    Anomaly       -1.22c

Peasedown St John     5.9c     Anomaly      -1.5c.  

Cheers for the update GW 

I must admit, I'm pleasantly surprised how fast the CET has climbed in the past few days. I've not been plugging the numbers in very often lately... trying to take it easier, believe it or not .

Growing confidence in a cold spell next week but perhaps not that long in duration. Signs, as per the tracker projection, that the final third of the month could bring some warmer conditions. GFS continues to intermittently challenge that idea, though - the MJO continuing to stir the pot, I expect.

Met Office Hadley         5.1c      Anomaly       0.1c provisional to13th

Metcheck                      4.57c    Anomaly       -1.59c

Netweather                   5.17c    Anomaly       -1.14c

Peasedown St John      5.5c      Anomaly       -1.4c.   

Met Office Hadley          5.2c       Anomaly       0.1c    provisional  to14th

Metcheck                       4.78c     Anomaly       -1.38c

Netweather                    5.32c     Anomaly       -0.99c

Peasedown St John      5.4c       Anomaly      -1.5c. 

Met Office Hadley         5.5c       Anomaly     0.3c  provisional o 15th

Metcheck                      5.0c       Anomaly     -1.16c

Netweather                   5.45c     Anomaly     -0.77c

Peasedown St John      5.5c       Anomaly     -1.4c.    

The big reduction to the cold air incursion later this week has notably raised the estimated CET trajectory since a few days ago.

Back then I was looking at around 5.7°C to 20th March.

Now I'm seeing around 6.1°C to that point.

I wasn't doing the estimates behind the scenes on Friday 12th, but the runs back then were colder still for later this week, so I imagine the CET projection would have been another few tenths lower.

Anyway, signs are, next week will be generally on the mild side. A bit of uncertainty over whether it then turns colder for the final few days of the month, but I'm now seeing a 'reasonable range' for the final CET as somewhere between the low 6s and mid-7s.

This is with a slight factoring in of typical GFS bias. Something which really stung me early this month when it was atypically far too high with the temperatures; usually it's a bit too low. Such is the risk that comes with bias adjustments! For which reason, I only adjust by half the analysed bias - which means the spread around my 'best estimate' (currently mid-6s) is larger on the higher side than the lower.