In all seriousness, if you don't have patience then the MO thread is probably not good for your health 

The pattern is quite interesting in that the lows continue on a more southerly path and when you consider the difference between where Northern Scotland and the south of England are you are talking about a huge weather variation in the current set up

A look at the Inverness ensembles show persistent cold where as London oscillates between mild/cold simply because the polar front continually migrates up and down across this latitude

There should be an acceptance that people do comment on their location but also an understanding that others may get very different weather due to the geographical spread of the UK

FWW the warmth shown on some charts may well get into my locale on occasion in the next couple of weeks but the sharp temperature gradient makes for a lot of rainfall so flooding continues to be a problem

 

Key sentence highlighted. That's the biggest difference I'm noticing this year, compared to say Feb last year. It's certainly an interesting pattern but as you say, the reality on the ground for the southern half of the UK is actually very little change from standard zonal fair. Perhaps more cold air on the back edge of the lows but certainly a less noticeable difference (and less interesting weather) than in the north of England and Scotland.

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Haven't seen anything on the metoffice that would suggest anything other than the status quo 

How about (for 1st -15th Feb):

"Through this period there is a greater than average chance of cold spells spreading across the whole UK at times with the associated risk of wintry hazards."

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Haven't seen anything on the metoffice that would suggest anything other than the status quo 

Just for your reference, there is a good article on the BBC:: https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/55662527

 

Just for your reference, there is a good article on the BBC:: https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/55662527

Yes and that was last week...I do wonder where they got this from: One of the models or just an illustration? - That looks like Thursdays weather pattern..?

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Yes and that was last week...I do wonder where they got this from: One of the models?

Four days ago, fits in nicely with the meto outlook.

 

 

Indeed Greece also has seen record January temperatures.  

 

 

Meanwhile a Greek friend of mine was shivering last night at -5c

 

 

 

Meanwhile a Greek friend of mine was shivering last night at -5c

 

Yes, my partners family members posted photos of snow in Madytos ( near Halkadikki) in Greece. 

 

 

 

Meanwhile a Greek friend of mine was shivering last night at -5c

-2c today as a max for Istanbul. Snow tomorrow with a high of 0c.

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Yes, my partners family members posted photos of snow in Madytos ( near Halkadikki) in Greece. 

Nice 

My friend lives in Serres 

Hes not reported any snow unfortunately 

 

-2c today as a max for Istanbul. Snow tomorrow with a high of 0c.

 

Yes I saw a vid of a delighted Lady from Istanbul while it was snowing a couple of days ago

 

 

Key sentence highlighted. That's the biggest difference I'm noticing this year, compared to say Feb last year. It's certainly an interesting pattern but as you say, the reality on the ground for the southern half of the UK is actually very little change from standard zonal fair. Perhaps more cold air on the back edge of the lows but certainly a less noticeable difference (and less interesting weather) than in the north of England and Scotland.

Have a look at the GFSP 12Z run then, fellow Hampshireite... usual health warnings for snow depth charts apply!

 

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Meanwhile, back on topic in GFS operational land, it does seem that the lows are digging further and further south as each day goes by

 

 

In all seriousness, if you don't have patience then the MO thread is probably not good for your health 

Yep, over half way on the patience stakes now. Not long to go !

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How about (for 1st -15th Feb):

"Through this period there is a greater than average chance of cold spells spreading across the whole UK at times with the associated risk of wintry hazards."

But it's pretty much what they've been saying for a while now, and they also talk of milder weather. Like i said very much status quo.

"Further south, there is a continued risk of unsettled conditions, with above-average rainfall and periods of slightly above average temperatures."

 

 

 

But it's pretty much what they've been saying for a while now, and they also talk of milder weather. Like i said very much status quo.

"Further south, there is a continued risk of unsettled conditions, with above-average rainfall and periods of slightly above average temperatures."

 

 

Taken out of the wider context, though:  southerly tracking lows with a weakened jet and considerable uncertainty about the boundary between Arctic and less cold/milder air masses.  The narrative taken against that background makes perfect sense: yes, odds favour a preponderance of milder conditions the further south you are and a much greater likelihood of cold weather dominating towards the north (Scotland being part of 'the north', for the purpose of clarity).  Places in the middle could end up flooded or buried in snow, and there's no way of knowing until 2-3 days ahead.

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Wandering pockets of low and high pressure - looks like it is possible for anything obviously further north, hopefully there are some decent events in the midst of it. Still looking for a rise in pressure over Scandi, think it’s likely at a shorter notice period and a surprise in the models. For once FI really isn’t far away

Had a quick through the GFS 12z ENS at 264. Everything is in there; Scandi Highs, cold zonality, raging southwesterlys and Greenland High/mid Atlantic blocks.

Across models, agreement is pretty solid to 144 but beyond that the only certainty is uncertainty 🤔

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Not a bad looking 12z GFS run - there's even a fun little runner LP that delivers snow for some in the South next Saturday. As usual caveat being it's just pretty pixels and not something to take particularly seriously at that range other than flagging that when you're in a predominantly chilly period little tweaks to the pattern can be the difference between chilly and wet or temporarily cold and snowy. (FWIW there's another band of rain/sleet/snow shown moving SE'wards for Sunday too).

(Thursdays snow risk is of course much more likely to verify and that's looking potentially very interesting for some folks in Northern England and Scotland. There's a snow risk for the Midlands out of that LP on GFS for a time too, although I suspect nothing to get too excited about).

Just to highlight the longer term uncertainty noticeably less in the way of mild air dragged over the south on this run. There's still some above average days, just less pronounced. If I had to bet, I'd say the ens will be broadly consistent with the last few sets - a couple of milder days down here incoming, then 4-5 days of chilly weather followed by a couple of mild, possibly noticeably mild days and then who know thereafter with plenty of milder than average and cooler than average members.

Without wanting to sound like a stuck record I know it's not the prize we could have won but it's a mostly chilly unsettled outlook and that at least means the possibility of snow popping up although obviously more chance of that the further North you are and the higher up you are. There's also still a chance of a few tweaks meaning a more widespread cold pattern*.

GEM run has a much more active LP for Saturday in to Sunday, which takes a more Northerly track and means coldish rain IMBY with snow risk much further North. Thereafter it diverges from GFS more noticeably and has a ridge of HP allowing some properly cold air to get dragged over Scotland (-11 850s for a brief time) before the ridge collapses towards Scandi and we get an attempt at a Scandi HP.

*So if I've got the MetO view correct they're of the opinion our current in coming chilly/cold spell is not due to the SSW. Makes for some interesting speculation then that they think the current warming will have more of an impact including reducing the strength of the jet. A LP stalling in the right place could bring some cold air more widely and for longer, conversely in the wrong place and we might end up having an early spring. 

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There's plenty of HLB by T+240 on the 12Z op ECM. The trouble is that it's all at about 75N and so too far north to much benefit us, especially those of us who live in southern England. I wonder if that's because the SSW seems to be centred way on the other side of the North Pole, on a longitude of about 150E, with the UK still on the southern edge of what remains of the Polar Vortex.

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The zonal winds dipping again shortly

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202101180000

The longer term ECM charts are showing some options of easterlies to follow the dip in winds (well the most I have seen this year)

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_eps_family_stamps?base_time=202101180000&parameter=mean%20sea%20level%20pressure&valid_time=202102070000

Martin

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