A Scandi high with weather cold enough to bring lowland snow is a 1/2 possibility IMHO before months end. The para is sniffing the scent.

Meanwhile the 12z control run post 264z is a cold outlier and not supported or maybe it's ENS will follow suite in due course? - Let's hope the latter.  

AFAIK, the Control run doesn't have an ensemble.

It’s quite timely - I was beginning to wonder if we’d see any response to the initial QTR let alone the recent second warming.

No guarantees of course such is the nature of the beast but the chances of a stout easterly are quite reasonable IMO

It certainly would be the dog's bollocks if it came off

The far reaches of GFS runs tonight start to tie in with the METO long term forecast of high pressure building in / around UK. Plenty of blocking appearing, may be a case of where things spin around and stop. Plenty of positives in the charts tonight with interest maintained. 
Martin

I feel there is a chance, in my guts . I  don't subscribe to the SSW belief system.

ECM also has a snow event for SE and EA on Sunday.  Marginal but it's there at the moment.  Will it disappear?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=120&lid=OP&h=0&mv=1&tr=24#mapref

My advice is to check back no more than 12 hours before its due, the weather is notoriously fickle at present. One thing is for sure -a fascinating period of flood and storm watching ahead of snow events that are finely balanced in marginal scenarios.  An Interesting week ahead.

No I’ve not had chance to try anything else, so I’m presuming it’s still the same errors cropping up.

I’ve never been able to post anything with links included. Nor have I been able to post 2 pics at once in the same post.

your help would be much appreciated but sadly I’ve no idea how to PM you on here.

The only option I can reasonably use is the email we used to discuss my login details a while ago.

if that’s the only way of discussing and sorting out the issue then when I’ve got the opportunity between cooking, eating and organising my kids then I will be pleased to email you with more details of the issues I’m having.

im sure nobody wants any of the forums to be clogged up by messages between each of us 

Click on the poster's name (in this case Brian), click on 'user profile' and you have a 'PM' option.

What is the ‘SSW belief system?’

If you mean the well-described morphology that has plenty of literature, with still to be resolved surface Synoptics, it’s less a belief and more science is it not?

ECM day 10 mean is very mild. Not much sign of an easterly there.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=240&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Crikey

An absolute snow fest for the Scottish contingent - even Aberdeen! Great stuff although transportation and logistics could be badly affected.

Very little interest for me dan sowf for the foreseeable.

Let's see if the MO longer term projections turn out to be accurate for Feb

A lot of excitement indeed. I note that there remains the possibility of a snow event in the south this weekend. All very encouraging. I'm making the most of this mild spell, with my rain coat on taking photographs without gloves because I suspect it could be sometime before it returns.

Late January deep cold is an option on the table. 

ICON looks interesting for Sussex and Kent on Saturday

http://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2021011912/iconeu-1-93-1.png?19-16

http://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2021011912/iconeu-1-96-1.png?19-16

A few GFS runs now have had a Scandi High in FI.  Keeping an eye on this trend as I'm thinking an Easterly is a possibility.

I feel it could be a good weekend for Scottish skiing!

Oops sorry I guess with covid-19 it's all closed!?

ECM clusters suggesting a stronger chance of easterlies out in far FI

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/cluster_plot_legA?base_time=202101191200&cluster=264_360&parameter=1000

Martin