For the parallel subtle changes occur at 180 - not too far to see if that can be continued in subsequent runs

A Scandi high with weather cold enough to bring lowland snow is a 1/2 possibility IMHO before months end. The para is sniffing the scent.

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A Scandi high with weather cold enough to bring lowland snow is a 1/2 possibility IMHO before months end. The para is sniffing the scent.

Meanwhile the 12z control run post 264z is a cold outlier and not supported or maybe it's ENS will follow suite in due course? - Let's hope the latter.  

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Meanwhile the 12z control run post 264z is a cold outlier and not supported or maybe it's ENS will follow suite in due course? - Let's hope the latter.  

AFAIK, the Control run doesn't have an ensemble.

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AFAIK, the Control run doesn't have an ensemble.

There is a line for it on the TWO ensemble charts and it is not an outlier, although colder than the ensemble mean at times.

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Just starting to see the sort of pattern later in the suites that the troph modelling has been trying to impress at the surface - mean pV segments migrating further east and another across Canada leaving room for heights to build across Scandinavia.
It’s quite timely - I was beginning to wonder if we’d see any response to the initial QTR let alone the recent second warming.
No guarantees of course such is the nature of the beast but the chances of a stout easterly are quite reasonable IMO

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ECM hopefully following the parallel run not without potential at the moment

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_216_1.png 

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A Scandi high with weather cold enough to bring lowland snow is a 1/2 possibility IMHO before months end. The para is sniffing the scent.

It certainly would be the dog's bollocks if it came off

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The far reaches of GFS runs tonight start to tie in with the METO long term forecast of high pressure building in / around UK. Plenty of blocking appearing, may be a case of where things spin around and stop. Plenty of positives in the charts tonight with interest maintained. 
Martin

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It certainly would be the dog's bollocks if it came off

I feel there is a chance, in my guts . I  don't subscribe to the SSW belief system.

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ECM also has a snow event for SE and EA on Sunday.  Marginal but it's there at the moment.  Will it disappear?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=120&lid=OP&h=0&mv=1&tr=24#mapref

 

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ECM also has a snow event for SE and EA on Sunday.  Marginal but it's there at the moment.  Will it disappear?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=120&lid=OP&h=0&mv=1&tr=24#mapref

 

My advice is to check back no more than 12 hours before its due, the weather is notoriously fickle at present. One thing is for sure -a fascinating period of flood and storm watching ahead of snow events that are finely balanced in marginal scenarios.  An Interesting week ahead.

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ECM ends well

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Hopefully the little northward pulse of high pressure circa 180 is a theme to break the Atlantic link

It’s all falling into place for a very cold February 🤣🤣🤣

 

Not sure if you've resolved this.

If not the only thing I can suggest is that I log in with your credentials to see if there is a problem with the account. 

PM me if you me to help further with this.

 

No I’ve not had chance to try anything else, so I’m presuming it’s still the same errors cropping up.

I’ve never been able to post anything with links included. Nor have I been able to post 2 pics at once in the same post.

your help would be much appreciated but sadly I’ve no idea how to PM you on here.

The only option I can reasonably use is the email we used to discuss my login details a while ago.

if that’s the only way of discussing and sorting out the issue then when I’ve got the opportunity between cooking, eating and organising my kids then I will be pleased to email you with more details of the issues I’m having.

im sure nobody wants any of the forums to be clogged up by messages between each of us 

 

 

No I’ve not had chance to try anything else, so I’m presuming it’s still the same errors cropping up.

I’ve never been able to post anything with links included. Nor have I been able to post 2 pics at once in the same post.

your help would be much appreciated but sadly I’ve no idea how to PM you on here.

The only option I can reasonably use is the email we used to discuss my login details a while ago.

if that’s the only way of discussing and sorting out the issue then when I’ve got the opportunity between cooking, eating and organising my kids then I will be pleased to email you with more details of the issues I’m having.

im sure nobody wants any of the forums to be clogged up by messages between each of us 

Click on the poster's name (in this case Brian), click on 'user profile' and you have a 'PM' option.

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I feel there is a chance, in my guts . I  don't subscribe to the SSW belief system.

What is the ‘SSW belief system?’

If you mean the well-described morphology that has plenty of literature, with still to be resolved surface Synoptics, it’s less a belief and more science is it not?

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ECM day 10 mean is very mild. Not much sign of an easterly there.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=240&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

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Crikey

An absolute snow fest for the Scottish contingent - even Aberdeen! Great stuff although transportation and logistics could be badly affected.

Very little interest for me dan sowf for the foreseeable.

Let's see if the MO longer term projections turn out to be accurate for Feb