Decent spread. 

OVER 90% of the gefs starting to look a lot more interesting post t240. Will we now finally start to see a trend to nirvana synoptic charts as we go through the coming week or will it be another false dawn.

Back in real time the pattern is more amplified than what was being shown three or so days ago with more areas under a threat of some snow during the next several days by the looks of things. Still hopeful of at least one very cold memorable snowy spell this winter. Still very much all to play for.

OVER 90% of the gefs starting to look a lot more interesting post t240. Will we now finally start to see a trend to nirvana synoptic charts as we go through the coming week or will it be another false dawn.

Back in real time the pattern is more amplified than what was being shown three or so days ago with more areas under a threat of some snow during the next several days by the looks of things. Still hopeful of at least one very cold memorable snowy spell this winter. Still very much all to play for.

 

What exactly is interesting 🤔 

 

What exactly is interesting 🤔 

 

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Yes I was just thinking, the latest GEFS is the least interesting for a little while. But I’m sure one of the next few will be interesting again. 

OVER 90% of the gefs starting to look a lot more interesting post t240. Will we now finally start to see a trend to nirvana synoptic charts as we go through the coming week or will it be another false dawn.

Back in real time the pattern is more amplified than what was being shown three or so days ago with more areas under a threat of some snow during the next several days by the looks of things. Still hopeful of at least one very cold memorable snowy spell this winter. Still very much all to play for.

 

You have seen the 12z ENS - what's interesting about more rain and flooding this week and showers by the weekend followed by more rain next week?

Where are you based? - would be good to know your location?

Personally I continue to think the GEFS has been performing pretty well. 

GEFS 06z from Tue 12th January

GEFS12z from 18th January

 

Yes I was just thinking, the latest GEFS is the least interesting for a little while. But I’m sure one of the next few will be interesting again. 

Perhaps he likes rain? 😆

Decent spread. 

There is a point when the word ‘uncertainty’ just doesn’t fit.  That chart just reinforces the point about ignoring everything past T+144 in the current situation.

 

What exactly is interesting 🤔 

 

My take is that everyone has a ticket in the lottery. I consider the weather to be interesting at the moment.

 

My take is that everyone has a ticket in the lottery. I consider the weather to be interesting at the moment.

I guess that's true but what lottery is he playing here?

"OVER 90% of the gefs starting to look a lot more interesting post t240."

Obviously not the cold lottery 🙄 

Personally I continue to think the GEFS has been performing pretty well. 

GEFS 06z from Tue 12th January

 

GEFS12z from 18th January

True - However we have lost those ENS with the sub -10c uppers.

 

True - However we have lost those ENS with the sub -10c uppers.

Yes there is no doubt this week's cold incursion has been moderated but the general pattern looks well handled to me.

Hi all, not normaly posting on the MO thread, But looking at those charts Brian has posted it would seem to be coldish for a period of time. I suppose the point being I would like it to be as safe as possible for people to go and get their vaccinations ASAP. SOZ if off topic

Someone go wake retron 😂 we were going to get an Op FI like that at some point, was almost inevitable.

I saw that when I got up (over an hour ago)... all gone on the 0z of course!

Perhaps an emerging trend - towards a cold February filldyke, be it black or be it white, the white is better to like; as the old weather lore saying goes. Only 9 runs show anything mild into FI, a third of the runs, with the majority showing a truly cold outcome and a fair sprinkling of eye candy runs - the op being one of the more sedate: but one I would be mighty glad to see manifest....

Mild, chilly, mild, cold?

Can the GEFS countdown a cold spell from 300+ hrs out ,possible but unlikely.  

Looks very wet as well so flooding on the menu. 

jetstream - after a couple of days when there is a weak NW-ly flow over the Uk and something stronger developing on the Atlantic, the two join forces and to generate a broad and strong stream across either the S of the UK or (esp later)France through to Thu 4th with only an occasional brief ripple interrupting the flow.

GFS - Storm Christoph arrives on Thu a little further south than previously forecast, now over N England, moves N and hangs around until dissipating Mon 25th. Then mild-ish but weak zonal flow until Tue 2nd when something deeper appears over the Hebrides 980mb, introducing colder air and sinking S while filling.

GEFS - see Ally's post above which matches the synoptics quite nicely. That posted chart is for London but quite close to those for the whole of UK, though Scotland looks somewhat drier and colder around Mon 24th, and not quite as mild later on.

ECM - similar to GFS though it additionally throws in a shallow LP passing over Scotland Wed 27th

Mild, chilly, mild, cold?

Can the GEFS countdown a cold spell from 300+ hrs out ,possible but unlikely.  

Looks very wet as well so flooding on the menu.