Conformist 'fall in!' from the GFS ENS members this afternoon, if you exclude the creative ones at the start of the new month.

I think I've seen this before as the TS season energises over the Atlantic at this time of year- almost a resignation to 'anything could happen'. 

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Looks like we are in a conveyor belt of low pressure systems pounding at our door for the next week.

Jetstream running across the UK more or less consistently from the W throughout but with some loops in it to the S esp Fris 29th and 4th.

GFS - current storm moving away, new LP over Scotland Wed 26th, HP then almost establishes itself , nibbled at by LP from the SE Sun 30th and  stronger LP moving in from NW from Wed 2nd and settling over the N Sea 

GEFS - temps close to mean though often on the cool side esp around Weds 23rd and 30th after which anything could happen. More rain about in the S the than yesterday's forecast esp 23rd. 29th and 4th to match jetstream, in the N not such high peaks but more frequent.

ECM - not such a broad area of HP after Wed 26th but begins to break down later and from the W on Mon 31st

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Well the inevitable slide into 7 months of perpetual Autumn is well afoot, The last knockings of Summer 2020 look cooler and wet in many parts

Well the inevitable slide into 7 months of perpetual Autumn is well afoot, The last knockings of Summer 2020 look cooler and wet in many parts

But of course that kind of synoptics at the tail end of this month as shown on the 12z GFS will never ever materialise in the heart of Winter.  However as things stand, that would make for a cool and wet Bank Holiday weekend over Kent if that bear fruit come the moment - much to the relief of my dead-looking lawn. 

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Well the inevitable slide into 7 months of perpetual Autumn is well afoot, The last knockings of Summer 2020 look cooler and wet in many parts

Keep trying.

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The GEFS scatter charts are still in development but a rough cut is available here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com//premium/gefs-graphs.aspx

Notes:

1) You can tap / click on the individual points to check the values. 

2) Opacity is used to indicate the number of overlapping values, so the darker the shading the more runs there are for a given value 

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Interesting - and a great addition to the range! But where's the extra hour in the day I need to look at them all

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You will get an extra hour in the day at the end of October. Howzat?

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This morning's GFS starts off like yesterday's with storm Ellen moving off NE-wards but then presents LP on Wed 26th as much deeper (995 mb over Scottish borders - though MetO thinks that the bad weather will arrive on Tue). That leaves a N-ly flow while a ridge of HP moves in from the W, at its best on Mon 31st (Wow! BH in England too!) But soon breaking down as LP moves into Scotland the following day. Another ridge of HP Sat 5th before another Atlantic LP - could get quite warm with a S-ly flow in advance of this one.

GEFS temps average or cool (coolest around Sat 29th) until Tue 1st when mean of runs close to norm but quite a number of very warm runs in the mix. Less rain nationally than shown yesterday, what there is, is most likely 25th & 29th in S, 26th & 1st in Scotland.

ECM similar to GFS though LP on Wed arrives a bit earlier, less deep and moves through quickly

FAX also favours Tue for the LP arriving but is in no hurry to move it on; it sticks in the N Sea with gales for the E coast

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Well the inevitable slide into 7 months of perpetual Autumn is well afoot, The last knockings of Summer 2020 look cooler and wet in many parts

 

Standard fare in the Vale of Belvoir, then. The microclimate there means it has dire weather 24/7/365.

I know this from visiting TWO.

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And only 3 months away too. 

True! Although it's interesting from October all four CFS models go for a weakened zonal flow and some even in reverse.

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Remarkable similarity between the charts now and the charts in early and mid July: westerly flow, but large area of weak pressure gradients over the N Atlantic. N/S split over UK. Occasional cool ridging and occasional dartboard lows.

The British weather these days seems to exist in prolonged semi stable states that suddenly flip between each other and keep coming back. This year 2 months of endless Atlantic rainfall, then 3 months of high pressure and occasional cold plunges, then 3 months of this pootling westerly régime with occasional intense heatwaves.

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Remarkable similarity between the charts now and the charts in early and mid July: westerly flow, but large area of weak pressure gradients over the N Atlantic. N/S split over UK. Occasional cool ridging and occasional dartboard lows.

The British weather these days seems to exist in prolonged semi stable states that suddenly flip between each other and keep coming back. This year 2 months of endless Atlantic rainfall, then 3 months of high pressure and occasional cold plunges, then 3 months of this pootling westerly régime with occasional intense heatwaves.

I know above you are talking about 2-3 months at a time, but on the whole would you say our weather was more mobile now Tim? I think it was you that raised the difference between the SE and NW becoming wider.

Personally I feel our weather has been in a state of change since the seventies, and it still hasn’t settled down yet. Really shows on our location how changeable our weather can be.
No doubt there are more extremes though whether that’s through heat, rainfall, and a there’s lack of cold to what we used to get. A northerly in Winter ain’t what it used to be!
Even the fogs have largely gone, cleaner air?

GEFS graph feature is now live. Currently enables you to plot scatter charts. They're a good way of quickly seeing  clustering and whether big outliers are pulling up the mean.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-graphs.aspx

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Looks like Autumn is settling in early according to GFS, ECMWF & METO.

(Mind you could still get heatwave in October)

Looks like Autumn is settling in early according to GFS, ECMWF & METO.

(Mind you could still get heatwave in October)

January more likely. 

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Even the fogs have largely gone, cleaner air?

That’s definitely a change clearly influenced by cleaner air. We just don’t get fog like we used to.

 

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Looking at the latest model output, we could have another significant low pressure system coming in during the middle part of next week so given that we have just had Storm Ellen, I wonder what the chances are of next week's system being officially named as Storm Francis which is the next name in last year's list of storm names (which I am assuming, will continue to be in use until this year's storm list is released at the beginning of September).

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Standard fare in the Vale of Belvoir, then. The microclimate there means it has dire weather 24/7/365.

I know this from visiting TWO.

Utter nonsense, more false statement trolling. If my posts so upset you so much then perhaps you may wish to leave the platform? Just a thought.