Time to put away the hosepipe for the season. The days are now rapidly shortening and despite the recent extreme heat it still looks quite green here. The rain now falling will be enough for the garden and a watering can suffices for the tubs. 

Time to put away the hosepipe for the season. The days are now rapidly shortening and despite the recent extreme heat it still looks quite green here. The rain now falling will be enough for the garden and a watering can suffices for the tubs. 

Not here, Brian.  As reported in the August Precip. thread total so far here this month is 3.0mm.  The grass in some local areas (Tunbridge Wells common and parts of Sevenoaks, which are on sand) have a very 1976 look about them (which I remember from the time) being pale yellow with dusty soil.  When I drove along the A21 Tonbridge bypass this week I noticed that the leaves on the trees alongside it were turning yellow in places, and looking very shabby, clearly suffering from the combination of lack of water and high temperatures. 

So the hosepipe is still much in use here, and I'm scanning the model output looking for rain...

Model outputs look horrific, still hoping that nasty low goes further North.

Not here, Brian.  As reported in the August Precip. thread total so far here this month is 3.0mm.  The grass in some local areas (Tunbridge Wells common and parts of Sevenoaks, which are on sand) have a very 1976 look about them (which I remember from the time) being pale yellow with dusty soil.  When I drove along the A21 Tonbridge bypass this week I noticed that the leaves on the trees alongside it were turning yellow in places, and looking very shabby, clearly suffering from the combination of lack of water and high temperatures. 

So the hosepipe is still much in use here, and I'm scanning the model output looking for rain...

Yess, I've seen some scraggy-looking trees too, including the hazel in the garden. If it does get windy as some models are showing next week there could be quite a bit of premature leaf-fall!

Rainfall is 4.6mm here this month, all of it yesterday. It just ran straight off the ground into the streams and drains, of course...

Time to put away the hosepipe for the season. The days are now rapidly shortening and despite the recent extreme heat it still looks quite green here. The rain now falling will be enough for the garden and a watering can suffices for the tubs. 

Thanks Brian - that should guarantee us a hot, dry September! 😆

 

Thanks Brian - that should guarantee us a hot, dry September! 😆

  

 Very possible but even if it happens the hosepipe won't be needed in my garden. 

 

Yess, I've seen some scraggy-looking trees too, including the hazel in the garden. If it does get windy as some models are showing next week there could be quite a bit of premature leaf-fall!

Rainfall is 4.6mm here this month, all of it yesterday. It just ran straight off the ground into the streams and drains, of course...

Strength of the zonal winds @ 10hpa 60'N look interesting from November on wards: But we have been here before I guess and this could be picking up on the easterly QBO.

Strength of the zonal winds @ 10hpa 60'N look interesting from November on wards: But we have been here before I guess and this could be picking up on the easterly QBO.

 

And only 3 months away too. 

 

And only 3 months away too. 

That reminds me,  I must get my Christmas shopping finished soon. Especially if there is snow on the way ....

And only 3 months away too. 

Nailed on 

Jetstream resumes S of the UK Tue 18th but folds up into a S-ward dipping loop from Wed 26th which breaks up by Mon 31st.

GFS - LP works in from the W this week, shallow at first but much deeper Thu 20th, from 980 mb off SW Ireland then to Scotland filling by Tue 25th. Mid- Atlantic ridge of Hp then drifts across from the W but giving way to LP moving into the SW from Spain by Sat 29th.

GEFS - In the S small heat blip Fri 21st otherwise mean temp is close to or below (esp Mon 24th) seasonal norm< Rain around from time to time, Scotland temps similar (but no blip) but rain more concentrated with peaks 19th/21st/ 27th

ECM - a deeper LP on Fri 21st and the ridge of HP generates more of a N-ly flow as it approaches

Getting one of those of model periods where the ops are consistently very different (in this case cooler) than the other ensemble members on both ECM and GFS (and GEM).

In all 3 cases the ensemble mean gives us a mini heatwave next weekend - ECM 12C 850s, GFS and GEM both 14 with some members up closer to 20, but the ops peak at 10, 12 and 12 respectively and only fir a few hours, associated with a load of rain.

Strength of the zonal winds @ 10hpa 60'N look interesting from November on wards: But we have been here before I guess and this could be picking up on the easterly QBO.

 

Getting one of those of model periods where the ops are consistently very different (in this case cooler) than the other ensemble members on both ECM and GFS (and GEM).

In all 3 cases the ensemble mean gives us a mini heatwave next weekend - ECM 12C 850s, GFS and GEM both 14 with some members up closer to 20, but the ops peak at 10, 12 and 12 respectively and only fir a few hours, associated with a load of rain.

Typical of this time of year when tropical storms are getting into the Atlantic - the models always have problems with these.

I'd missed that http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 is now doing a 16-day forecast even though it still calls itself a 10-dayer; however, it's showing a big cool-down for Europe N of the Alps (that's us as well) for the last week of August. Rain in the west to start with, then a large amount moving SE across France in that last week and catching the S Coast.

Take a quick look at the snow and ice chart https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif both the NW and NE Arctic passages well clear of ice.

Current computer models:

GFS - LP moving in from Atlantic Thu 20th (though briefly bringing up some warmth as it approaches, the mini heat wave referred to elsewhere) and after visiting the NW coast eventually end up in Norway Mon 24th; spell of westerlies resolving into deep LP Fri 28th 985 mb Hebrides which leaves a legacy LP moving S 990 mb Brittany Mon 31st. Between them these last two Lp drag in a lot of cool N-ly air.

GEFS - Mini heat wave for S Thu 20th otherwise most runs agree on a decline into a cool spell through to Fri 28th after which much disagreement between runs. Rain peaks Mon 17th and Fri 21st and then more generally from Mon 24th. Fo Scotland and N England the mini-heat wave is only just detectable though the rest of the temp profile is similar, and rain occurs fairly frequently throughout.

ECM synoptics follow GFS at least to Tue 25th (the chart for 26th is still yesterday's 12z at time of posting)

FAX keeps pressure generally low throughout and the LP on Thu 20th is deeper (969mb) and hints at heading more to our SW.

Looking very bleak for the rest of August here.

Central Europe looks to be keeping the Warmth in the North too, probably more High pressure to that area.

Tomas Sch... you-know-who has just mentioned on the BBC that the remains of tropical storm Kyle will be mixed with the LP arriving on Wednesday adding some initial warmth and later more persistently disturbed weather.

And after that the jet stream is diving down south of the UK. That could be it for the extreme heat this summer - here's hoping anyway.

 

I'd missed that http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 is now doing a 16-day forecast even though it still calls itself a 10-dayer; however, it's showing a big cool-down for Europe N of the Alps (that's us as well) for the last week of August. Rain in the west to start with, then a large amount moving SE across France in that last week and catching the S Coast.

It's just the op GFS run - and those "temp4" charts have been run out to 16 days since at least 2008. (I have some from 2004 and earlier which were only 10-days, but they changed at some point in th einterim).

The thing that strikes me with those charts is just how hard it is to get blues over the UK during summer. I guess it's not too much of a surprise as we all know things are warmer than they were, especially compared to the 1901-2000 base period that those charts inexplicably use!

GFS - LP moving in from the Atlantic and deepening withthe aid of remnants of tropical storm Kyle 985mb off W Coast of Ireland Fri 21st, moving to Norway Sun 23rd, some warm air being drawn up in front and in advance of it, cooler and following it. Next Atlantic LP over UK Wed 26th. Brief ridge of HP Sat 29th collapsing to W-lies backing NW-ly Wed 2 Sep. Final chart looks quite autumnal with procession of large depressions Newfoundland - Iceland- Russia.

GEFS Warm briefly in S Thu 20th then cool Mon 24th then seasonal norm but lots of scatter towards end of run; rain quite frequent, some agreement on 20th and 25th for best chance of significant amounts. Much the same in the N & Scotland but warmth on 20th suppressed and more rain either side of the dates above

ECM similar to GFS, LP on 26th not as deep