A couple of cheeky little ensemble members in GEFS hinting at a bank holiday mini-heatwave. Only a tiny minority, but something to watch.

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A couple of cheeky little ensemble members in GEFS hinting at a bank holiday mini-heatwave. Only a tiny minority, but something to watch.

I spotted that too. Some significant warm runs in the Ensembles. Some of those would get temperatures easily back into the thirties again. A new trend or just white noise? Worth keeping track of for sure.

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I spotted that too. Some significant warm runs in the Ensembles. Some of those would get temperatures easily back into the thirties again. A new trend or just white noise? Worth keeping track of for sure.

Might be a good hot start to September too after a bad August had pass by. Sept date line now appearing on ensembles.

September in recent years has basically been a continuation of summer warmth anyway for the most part.

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September in recent years has basically been a continuation of summer warmth anyway for the most part.

 

September is very often the loveliest summer month.

Interestingly, this weekend doesn’t look half bad down here either.

 

Certainly a far cry from some of the more extreme predictions.

 

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September in recent years has basically been a continuation of summer warmth anyway for the most part.

Wasn't last September generally cool and changeable? I recall it lacked any sustained late Summer-type weather thus began what felt like the longest Autumn ever. 

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Jetstream running across or close to S England with occasional loops in the stream until Fri 28th when a bigger loop changes its direction to SW-ly and it then breaks up before resuming in strength with a tight loop enclosing the UK.

GFS - deep LP off Ireland Thu 20th moving to N Norway by Tue 25th with a legacy of N/NE winds persisting through the week,  ridge of HP over the weekend of 29th before new LP from Atlantic moves in, becoming quite deep on the Channel Thu 3rd

GEFS generally temps above norm Thu 20th, below Sun 23rd, both by a small amount; mean of runs then stays on norm but with even more divergence between run than yesterday, quite often a difference of 17C between top and bottom forecasts. Rain around in next couple of days, briefly dry then in the S irregular amounts from time to time and also in the N but more frequent. 

ECM LP on 20th/21st deeper and closer than GFS, but more W-ly than N-ly to follow with shallow LPs in these W-lies

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Is this low the remnants of TS Kyle?

 

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Is this low the remnants of TS Kyle?

 

Yes to some extent; Kyle has given it a big injection of heat and humidity which has meant that things are going to be wet (tomorrow Wed) and with strong winds (Thu/Fri). But it started out as an ordinary depression.

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Wasn't last September generally cool and changeable? I recall it lacked any sustained late Summer-type weather thus began what felt like the longest Autumn ever. 

 

I think the period 2007 to 2012 was the longest autumn ever (punctuated, admittedly, by some fine wintry spells in 2009 and 2010)

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September in recent years has basically been a continuation of summer warmth anyway for the most part.

September is often a warm, pleasant month here in Lowestoft, with a good deal of dry conditions & abundant sunshine. It has become much drier & settled since 2002. Convective activity over southern N Sea has become uncommon. Septembers went through quite an unsettled phase between 1992 & 2001 (except for 1996 & '97); used to watch some good storms over the sea then.

I suspect the mostly dry settled conditions to persist this September & the next few years (maybe linked with low Solar activity?).

Wasn't last September generally cool and changeable? I recall it lacked any sustained late Summer-type weather thus began what felt like the longest Autumn ever. 

I know it's a bit IMBY, but my recollection was that last September wasn't a bad month overall, with some decent sunny spells & quite warm. It became markedly unsettled by the end of the month. October was a very unsettled, wet month.

Wasn't last September generally cool and changeable? I recall it lacked any sustained late Summer-type weather thus began what felt like the longest Autumn ever. 

Was a dry warm month here.. yet another poor start to the mushroom season. The last few day's of the month were very wet & cool though.

 

Was a dry warm month here.. yet another poor start to the mushroom season. The last few day's of the month were very wet & cool though.

 

Had some cool nights early in the month, down to 4.1c on the 8th, but dry and mild to warm in general. We were down in Devon until the 21st which was warm all week culminating in 25c, the next day the ark descended for the 6 months of autumn.

 

Back OT, sneaky High pressure showing on the ECM in FI for the 28th. Looks strong enough with a good directional flow to indicate a nice BH weekend.

 

GFS Op and GEFS having none of it however, but happy with the Op as it seems whenever it goes out on a limb in terms of low 850s/2m or Pressure in FI (the latter being the case now), the opposite happens so looking good...

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Arpege 12z continuing to show the risk of damaging winds during the next few days in parts of the UK. https://t.co/meE4sDv0IO pic.twitter.com/YeUsm9ehjW

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) August 18, 2020

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16-day outlook continues to show a cool spell in a week's time

GFS Current LP intensifying and moving up the W coast before moving to N Norway Mon 24th and then a W-ly spell with alternating LP and ridges of HP. Perhaps signs of a more persistent HP starting Thu 3rd.

GEFS briefly warm then cool Mon 24th recovering to norm and staying there but with much scatter esp  in Scotland from the start and everywhere after Mon 31st. Wet now, some rain on and off from Wed 26th in S, rather more rain in the N esp around Wed 26th.

ECM agrees with GFS but generally keeps pressure higher during the W-ly spell

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Summer is over - though will probably return in September. Indian Summer anyone?

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Wasn't last September generally cool and changeable? I recall it lacked any sustained late Summer-type weather thus began what felt like the longest Autumn ever. 

The last September I can recall as being generally settled in my neck of the woods was 2015, and that month in 2014 was pretty good here too. The last three or four Septembers have been rather mixed where I live.

A good one this year would be very welcome though!

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GFS - Storm Ellen creating havoc off W coast before moving to Norwegian Sea Mon 24th; then W-ly regime alternating LP & HP ridges, the former Wed 26th and Mon 31st, HP ridges in between after which more SW-ly and warmer and dry at least for SE.

GEFS temps around the norm but a lot of scatter later on. op & control aong he warmenst ca Wed 2nd Sep. Most chance of rain around Tue/Wed 25th/26th otherwise quite dry in S, more occasional rain in N.

ECM - stronger ridge of HP Thu 27th and persisting at least a few days

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GEFS 12z London 2m max temperature spread. (Green line is trend) Darker red indicates more than one run on that point. (New tool to plot these will be on TWO either tomorrow or Sat) pic.twitter.com/xJ0I7WKsLO

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) August 20, 2020

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