Utter nonsense, more false statement trolling. If my posts so upset you so much then perhaps you may wish to leave the platform? Just a thought. 

It looks like you're more upset than he is? It's my perception too that your posts are at odds with everybody elses weather conditions. Anyways, back to the models. Looking stormy across the models this week. Signs of s settle down in the longer view output? 

GFS - has come in line with other models and brings next LP in on Tue 26th, in Irish Sea 980mb before it moves off to E, then another central England Fri 29th. Weak ridge of HP from N to S for the Bank Holiday, then another  LP developing and finally intensifying in N Sea 985mb Sat 5th. 

GEFS temps cool esp Sun 30th 4-5C below norm, otherwise closer to norm. Rainfall forecasts continue to vary day to day; best chances in S 25th. 28th and 2nd, Scotland misses out on the 28th but has more general rain after the 2nd.

ECM similar to GFS up to Wed 2nd, the collapses the ridge of HP more quickly in favour of W-lies.

FAX shows the gales associated with Tuesday's LP very well, wild for Channel coasts

 

I know above you are talking about 2-3 months at a time, but on the whole would you say our weather was more mobile now Tim? I think it was you that raised the difference between the SE and NW becoming wider.

Personally I feel our weather has been in a state of change since the seventies, and it still hasn’t settled down yet. Really shows on our location how changeable our weather can be.
No doubt there are more extremes though whether that’s through heat, rainfall, and a there’s lack of cold to what we used to get. A northerly in Winter ain’t what it used to be!
Even the fogs have largely gone, cleaner air?

Couldnt agree more...be interesting if this September continues the unsettled theme or a return to recent default Septembers of warm settled continuation of summer..

 

It looks like you're more upset than he is? It's my perception too that your posts are at odds with everybody elses weather conditions. Anyways, back to the models. Looking stormy across the models this week. Signs of s settle down in the longer view output? 

no not upset at all, just pointing out blatant trolling without any factual quotes again to back any of this up. It rained here today. But let’s not let the truth get in the way of a good troll eh, especially if it was dry your end. 

Jetstream running westerly and quite strong across the UK this week, forming a loop enclosing the UK Sat 29th from the 'wrong' side, before resuming and throwing more loops Thu 3rd and Sun 6th, the last quite persistent though weakening by Tue 8th.

GFS - Deep LP over UK tomorrow Tue 25th but moving off quickly; another LP Fri 28th, shallower but slower to move away dragging N-lies behind it; brief ridge of HP before another local  LP Wed 2nd. Then the Atlantic really takes charge with developments near Iceland bringing in cold and persistent NW-ly becoming N-ly through to Wed 9th.

GEFS - temps cool to 1st Sept after which mean of runs is close to norm but that conceals a lot of variation - op and control warm for 2 or 3 days after which amongst the coldest members. Rain in S most likely tomorrow and Sat 29th, small amounts at other times. Temp profile similar for the N though less variation from the mean for Scotland, rain in N England and Scotland a day later on the 26th but missing out on the spell on the 29th, resuming on Tue 1st.

ECM - Similar to GFS at first but in process of changing its mind re Wed 2nd - deep LP Wed 2nd over Shetland on yesterday's 12z, quite shallow and further S on today's 0z wih a controlling depression sitting off in the Atlantic with warmer S-lies than GFS

16-dayer showing NW Europe cool and later C Europe even more so; perhaps a little warmth for the UK creeping in from the SW in week 2. Wet week 1, dry week 2 (the rain has moved off down to the Balkans)

GFS - current storm moving away NE fairly quickly, shallow LP for Fri 28th, followed by a toppling ridge of HP at its best on Mon 31st. shallow and cool LP across UK Wed 2nd, then UK between HP towards Scandi and LP in Atlantic - could go either way. LP eventually pushes through to SE Wed 9th.

GEFS -  widely becoming cool, even cold for time of year around Mon 31st; back to seasonal norm for a few days after that but although mean of runs stays close to norm that conceals a lot of variability from Fri 4th onwards (Cf above). Rain in S around Fri 28th and Wd 2nd, fairly dry otherwise. Scotland gets an early dump of rain tomorrow, then not much until Tue 1st after which fairly regular amounts - N England somewhere between the two.

ECM - very close to GFS until Wed 2nd, but then places HP over UK rather towards Scandi

The fat lady is warming up her tonsils on Summer of 2020.

The fat lady is warming up her tonsils on Summer of 2020.

Considering it ends on Monday, that's no surprise!

Having finally lost the humidity, with the gloom, drizzly rain and gusty winds it really does feel like autumn has arrived a week or so early here. Even then, though, the enhanced NW/SE of late remains: it may be windy, but it really isn't wet... just 2.6mm from several hours' worth of light rain and drizzle. The ground is still absolutely solid!

On the new GEFS scatter charts featuer you can now grab a static image url.

The page is:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-graphs.aspx?run=00&fv=tmp850&loc=Berkhamsted&lat=51.5&lon=-0.5

To get a url for the plot press the "Get chart url" button. It should return quite quickly. For example 850s for Berkhamsted. Once you've got the link it will remain in place even after GEFS updates.

On the new GEFS scatter charts featuer you can now grab a static image url.

The page is:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-graphs.aspx?run=00&fv=tmp850&loc=Berkhamsted&lat=51.5&lon=-0.5

To get a url for the plot press the "Get chart url" button. It should return quite quickly. For example 850s for Berkhamsted. Once you've got the link it will remain in place even after GEFS updates.

Excellent looks great. Much easier to see.

Like the look of those graphs, Brian. An easier way than the tabulated plots on Meteociel.

The 6Z GFS settles down nicely in early September with a fat anticyclone over the UK, which would be welcome after this brief blast of autumn.

Jetstream - across Uk until weekend when loop develops just to E ( a few days back this loop was around the UK). Main flow resumes to S of UK Tue 1st then slowly works its way north to Sun 6th, before resuming across central UK again the next day, Cut-off low developing off Iberia Thu  10th

GFS - Another (shallow) LP covering the UK Fri 28th, ridge of HP moving in for the BH weekend but with cold N-ly source of air. LP slides NW to SE Wed 2nd after which mostly W-ly weather with usual NW/SE split, though troughs do reach S-wards Sun 6th and Fri 11th. Although remnants of hurricane Laura are forecast to appear on the Atlantic Sun 30th, they don't seem to be having a great deal of effect and waht there is mostly in the direction of Iceland.

GEFS - Cool, even cold, Sun 30th, recovering to norm Wed 2nd after which mean of (rather variable) runs stays close to norm though op & control are warm outliers around Sat 5th. For the S, cluster of rainfall spikes Fri 28th ( a day earlier than yesterday) and Wed 2nd after which individual runs have a few very big totals but mostly dry for the majority. Similar for the N and Scotland but the op & control less of an outlier and rain after Wed 2nd more frequent but in small amounts.

ECM similar to GFS but LP on Wed 2nd less marked.

GFS 12z continues the FI shown recently with HP incoming from around the 4th, and not just for the South. This pretty much matches recent days' runs, the late stages of the ECM and the MO medium/long range forecast.

Given the kids will have just gone back in England, and we have a week's holiday down in Devon from the 4th, then of course it is nailed on, kinda...

Last year we were in Devon mid September for the last warm week before our 5 months of Autumnal hell descended the day after we got back, hopefully that doesn't transpire again.

GFS 12z continues the FI shown recently with HP incoming from around the 4th, and not just for the South. This pretty much matches recent days' runs, the late stages of the ECM and the MO medium/long range forecast.

Given the kids will have just gone back in England, and we have a week's holiday down in Devon from the 4th, then of course it is nailed on, kinda...

Last year we were in Devon mid September for the last warm week before our 5 months of Autumnal hell descended the day after we got back, hopefully that doesn't transpire again.

I've only seen the GFS Op output so far Tierra- positive with a few 15+ 850 days teased in; am eagerly awaiting the full ensemble suite as even the Control (which looks promising) only stretches a few days out currently.

 

I've only seen the GFS Op output so far Tierra- positive with a few 15+ 850 days teased in; am eagerly awaiting the full ensemble suite as even the Control (which looks promising) only stretches a few days out currently.

Yes looks like the Op was an outlier on the GEFS in terms of 850/2m temps certainly, however all is not lost as rainfall and pressure are low/high respectively so does signal a potential return to more settled conditions if not a heatwave scenario...

Yes, the season of mists and mellow fruitfulness is nearly upon us again.

There be a few fly in the ointments for sure but this September looks to be shaping like recents ones to me....the warmfest in South East set to continue.....few fresh nights approaching always fills you with hope for the coming months.....