I'm not sure Ian ever said that it would never happen again, just that it would be an extremely rare occurrence, and to be fair, he's not been far wrong has he?

I am not going to start writing winter off now (contrary to previous years), but as I've said many times in the past, relentless zonality is a tough beast to shift, and could be a long path to signficant cold.

That said, there are some tentative signs of some sort of blocking on ECM and (occasionally on and off) GFS. Truth is, no-one knows how winter is going to pan out but you can never go far wrong by saying largely Zonal and mild.

 

Between 1991 and 2008, winters contained no notable cold & snowy spells (and not that many cold & snowy snaps)

It was toward the end of this period that Ian started with his 'modern winter' stuff.

Then we had 2009, 2010 and 2013. And indeed 2018. 

That period was pretty much comparable to any other since the LIA, barring perhaps a couple.

And it's not like we didn't have barren periods of winters lacking good cold & snowy spells in times past, as records show (indeed the demise of proper winter weather has been proclaimed many times through recorded history)

Ian's fully entitled to his view, and the impact of AGW will continue to be felt, but let's not lionise him for not only preaching that the form horse would continue to win, but ignoring that the horse then fell flat on its face a number of times in the next several races. 

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I'm not sure Ian ever said that it would never happen again, just that it would be an extremely rare occurrence, and to be fair, he's not been far wrong has he?

I did say in my earlier post "If one is being diplomatic about it, then for the most part he has been right."

He may not have ever said as much in so many words, but that was the impression that I got from many of Ian's comments here pre-2009. For instance, whenever cold was shown in any model runs, Ian would be on here like a shot trying to tell is that it simply would not happen and that it would all be gone again in the next set of runs. That, to me anyway, was effectively tatamount to suggesting that notable cold couldn't happen again.

I am not going to start writing winter off now (contrary to previous years), but as I've said many times in the past, relentless zonality is a tough beast to shift, and could be a long path to signficant cold.

That said, there are some tentative signs of some sort of blocking on ECM and (occasionally on and off) GFS. Truth is, no-one knows how winter is going to pan out but you can never go far wrong by saying largely Zonal and mild.

Agree with you there. What I would add though is that, to take a relatively recent example, we had a very wet and mild November in 2009 and I imagine that to many people back then, any chances of notable cold must have seemed miles off. I for one don't recall there being much if any suggestion of a change in pattern until the early days of December 2009.

For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not suggesting for a second that what happened 11 years ago will happen again this time, but in my experience, even patterns which seem to have been in place for what seems like a eternity can change pretty quickly and without much warning in advance. Just looked at how the zonal pattern that lasted virtually all of last winter came to a sudden end just after mid-March this year and was replaced by a much more blocked & settled pattern, just as the nationwide Covid-19 lockdown was beginning.

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Between 1991 and 2008, winters contained no notable cold & snowy spells (and not that many cold & snowy snaps)

It was toward the end of this period that Ian started with his 'modern winter' stuff.

Then we had 2009, 2010 and 2013. And indeed 2018. 

That period was pretty much comparable to any other since the LIA, barring perhaps a couple.

And it's not like we didn't have barren periods of winters lacking good cold & snowy spells in times past, as records show (indeed the demise of proper winter weather has been proclaimed many times through recorded history)

Ian's fully entitled to his view, and the impact of AGW will continue to be felt, but let's not lionise him for not only preaching that the form horse would continue to win, but ignoring that the horse then fell flat on its face a number of times in the next several races. 

Personally I find that VERY difficult to believe. The period between 1979 and 87 was IMO far more notable and I've read people say the 60s were even better for cold and snow. 

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Feb 1991 was very cold and snowy Martin 

 

February 1991 the TEMPERATURE over a wide area did not rise above freezing between the 5th and 10th; the lowest temperature reached during the month was (minus) 16.0 degC at Cawood (N. Yorkshire) on the 14th. Temperatures failed to exceed freezing point in a few parts of central northern England on the 3rd, and, as cold air intensified, there was always some part of England and Wales where day maximum temperatures remained below freezing point every day from the 3rd to the 14th inclusive. Over much of the south-east of England, temperatures only achieved a maximum between (minus) 5 and (minus) 6 degC on the 7th, believed to be the COLDEST FEBRUARY DAY of the century in some places (e.g. at Whipsnade, Bedfordshire, and Brighton, Sussex, the MAXIMUM on the 7th was (minus) 5.2degC.) On the 8th, the MAXIMUM at Princeton, on Dartmoor was just (minus) 6C. The MINIMUM TEMPERATURE at Guernsey airport (CI) on the 7th was (minus) 7.2 degC, the equal low for February at this location.
> Minima below (minus) 10 degC were reported each morning from at least one place in widely differing parts of the UK from the 7th to 14th inclusive.
> SNOW fell extensively and often heavily between the 7th and 9th, leaving a covering exceeding 10 cm over large areas of England, Wales and eastern and southern Scotland, with 51 cm of level snow observed at Bingley, near Bradford, Yorkshire at 09z on the 9th. (Possibly the greatest snow-depth for central London since the start of the 'Big Freeze' snowfall in December, 1962.) There were many injuries from falls on ice and sledging accidents, and a woman in Dartford received severe head injuries from falling icicles. In central London, some places had somewhere around 15cm of SNOW - thought to have been the greatest depth since the infamous snowfalls of December, 1962. (This was the infamous "wrong type of snow" for British Rail; dry & powdery and driven by winds with low dew-points into delicate parts of the running machinery and points etc.)

 

 

Between 1991 and 2008, winters contained no notable cold & snowy spells (and not that many cold & snowy snaps)

It was toward the end of this period that Ian started with his 'modern winter' stuff.

Then we had 2009, 2010 and 2013. And indeed 2018. 

That period was pretty much comparable to any other since the LIA, barring perhaps a couple.

And it's not like we didn't have barren periods of winters lacking good cold & snowy spells in times past, as records show (indeed the demise of proper winter weather has been proclaimed many times through recorded history)

Ian's fully entitled to his view, and the impact of AGW will continue to be felt, but let's not lionise him for not only preaching that the form horse would continue to win, but ignoring that the horse then fell flat on its face a number of times in the next several races. 

 

If you are Ian Brown then kudos to you. Over 10 years ago you were talking about the new modern winter regime that lay ahead and you stuck to your guns despite some very hostile posting and ridiculing from members over on netweather and on here I would imagine as well. 

 

from time to time we may be right, many times we all get it wrong. Ian has his own views and agendas like every other person on this thread. Though IMO, and for a lack of better terminology, the “modern winter” statement is correct. Something has changed in modern times, of that there can be no doubt. Why that is remains for others to debate, but Autumn days of frost and fog  together with the complete lack of winter snowfall for many lowland areas of England and Wales is blatantly evident for all to see. Of that there can be no doubt. 

We used to get a lot more fog pre 62 in fact many weather folk quote Dec 1962 “last old style” London smog.

 

Personally I find that VERY difficult to believe. The period between 1979 and 87 was IMO far more notable and I've read people say the 60s were even better for cold and snow. 

 

 

Between 1991 and 2008, winters contained no notable cold & snowy spells (and not that many cold & snowy snaps)

It was toward the end of this period that Ian started with his 'modern winter' stuff.

Then we had 2009, 2010 and 2013. And indeed 2018. 

That period was pretty much comparable to any other since the LIA, barring perhaps a couple.

And it's not like we didn't have barren periods of winters lacking good cold & snowy spells in times past, as records show (indeed the demise of proper winter weather has been proclaimed many times through recorded history)

Ian's fully entitled to his view, and the impact of AGW will continue to be felt, but let's not lionise him for not only preaching that the form horse would continue to win, but ignoring that the horse then fell flat on its face a number of times in the next several races. 

The winter of 2010–11 was a weather event that brought heavy snowfalls, record low temperatures, travel chaos and school disruption to the islands of Great Britain and Ireland. It included the United Kingdom's coldest December since Met Office records began in 1910, with a mean temperature of -1 °C, breaking the previous record of 0.1 °C in December 1981. Also it was the second-coldest December in the narrower Central England Temperature (CET) record series which began in 1659, falling 0.1 °C short of the all-time record set in 1890.^[2] Although data has never officially been compiled, December 2010 is thought to be colder than December 1890 over the United Kingdom as a whole, as Scotland was up to 2 °C warmer than England. Hence, it is thought to be the coldest December across the UK as a whole since before 1659.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_2010%E2%80%9311_in_Great_Britain_and_Ireland

 

December 2010 was unprecedented to the extent that even the Little Ice Age probably never saw a December as cold.

How people on here can then spend the next ten years arguing with a straight face that the UK no longer has winters as cold as the past is beyond me. 

 

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A decent high to the NE quickly gets pushed away on this run after building to 1035 and looking like it could sink to Scandi.

A decent high to the NE quickly gets pushed away on this run after building to 1035 and looking like it could sink to Scandi.

Yes, like an old gramophone record, the Azores High pokes it's nose in, the jet fires up over it and the block to the NE is only going to go in one direction.

Early days this Winter but it seems to have started with a familiar pattern. Something tells me we might be in for a few surprises down the line though. All to play for.

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Jetstream this morning forecast to run strongly across the UK and down to SE Europe to Tue 24th before developing a loop which breaks it up into a N and a S component. By Sat 28th the S branch is weakening to the S of Spain while the N branch has formed a closed circulation N of Norway. Normal W-ly flow soon resumes with a single main stream across France and on to Italy/Greece, continuing to Mon 7th.

GFS shows W-ly pattern continuing for now but weakening and after Wed 25th the Atlantic takes a break, with weak LPs first over the Baltic Fri 27th - Mon 30th and SW England Wed 2nd. Major depressions then appear in E Atlantic -965 mb S of Iceland Sat 5th, 960 mb N Ireland Mon 7th -  though not progressive as blocked by HP over NE Scandi.

GEFS temps not far from seasonal norm;  mild - cool - mild to Thu 26th, then a long period a little below norm with runs, while not agreeing, avoiding extremes. A splash around Mon 24th (not for SE), dry-ish for a while in England, more rain everywhere but esp in W on and after Sun 29th

ECM agrees with GFS about he Atlantic break but produces a ridge of HP over England Fri 27th extending to Norway sun 29th but then back to broad W-ly pattern. 

 

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This mornings charts show a little more hope for a blocked outlook. However the UK is just too far west to feel its direct influence.

Instead weather fronts are not necessarily steam rolling over the uk, instead the uk is in that weird graveyard zone, where weather fronts and Lows go to die.

So its not the solution we want, but its a step in the right direction....

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06z GFS has some hope just need to low to deepen over the med and a bit of WAA to feed the high

 

How people on here can then spend the next ten years arguing with a straight face that the UK no longer has winters as cold as the past is beyond me. 

It's about perception to a large degree. In December 2010 the canal didn't freeze solid here yet (I'm told) it did in the 80s on more than one occasion. I've also been told that the River Foss wasn't frozen solid enough to walk on in December 2010, however, as a kid I can remember walking on it with my dad and chiselling through the ice to measure its thickness.  

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It's about perception to a large degree. In December 2010 the canal didn't freeze solid here yet (I'm told) it did in the 80s on more than one occasion. I've also been told that the River Foss wasn't frozen solid enough to walk on in December 2010, however, as a kid I can remember walking on it with my dad and chiselling through the ice to measure its thickness.  

Yet it was still the coldest December in a century.

A messy 06z GFS op run so far. Nothing too dry, wet, cold, mild so far. Lots of high pressure to the east but details seem to be changing with each run. The end result could vary greatly depending on the specific location of the High.

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It's about perception to a large degree. In December 2010 the canal didn't freeze solid here yet (I'm told) it did in the 80s on more than one occasion. I've also been told that the River Foss wasn't frozen solid enough to walk on in December 2010, however, as a kid I can remember walking on it with my dad and chiselling through the ice to measure its thickness.  

Yet it did in Banbury , it is perception you are correct and cold spells and extremes can be very local , I have known Banbury to have really good snowfalls and Witney ( ask Moomin ) get nothing , but surrounding villages to Witney also get a good covering 

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If those two HP's were to link we would be laughing , so close 

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agreed, the 6z takes another step back to blocked setup.

If anything - its just nice to see a slightly drier outlook. If that leads to colder weather - then that's just a positive at this stage

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Yet it did in Banbury , it is perception you are correct and cold spells and extremes can be very local , I have known Banbury to have really good snowfalls and Witney ( ask Moomin ) get nothing , but surrounding villages to Witney also get a good covering 

TBH Dec 2010 was quite underwhelming here. We had a decent snowfall around the 18th but that was it. In comparison mid-Dec 2009 to mid-Jan 2010 brought 3 heavy snowfalls. 

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Enjoying the trip down memory lane this morning.
GFS tips it’s hat once again to the idea of a solid block to the east and disruption over the UK.
Not the rampant mobility some had accepted just yesterday.

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Enjoying the trip down memory lane this morning.
GFS tips it’s hat once again to the idea of a solid block to the east and disruption over the UK.
Not the rampant mobility some had accepted just yesterday.

The big problem or risk with a block to the east, depending on its location, is that the low pressure train across the Atlantic will just decay over the U.K. or get deflected northwards leaving us in a “nothingness” semi-permanent Col-like situation - high pressure to our east low to the west.

Beyond a big blob of high pressure over Russia flirting unsuccessfully with Scandinavia I am not seeing too much of interest in the next couple of weeks in terms of actual weather.

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