Nice ending to GFS , pleased with the 12z run

Overcast and mild!? Winds still coming in from west - least it isn't raining.

It was nice (in a way) to be caught in a snow shower this morning on the way to work. The outlook seems a bit more “average” in terms of temperatures over the next couple of weeks but nothing striking one way or the other. Quite mobile overall but, as others have mentioned, hints that high pressure may hang around in our vicinity for a while. Not a strong signal though.

Crazy 😲 snow in north Scotland  and at the oposite end of the UK we had a pleasant sunny mid November day with temperatures of 13C. 

Here is the irony - La Nina winters are meant to be front loaded and it appears that the zonal winds will become exceptionally maybe record breaking strong again over the next week when this time last year as indicated by the red line on chart - we were actually going weaker than average: Look at the latest forecast for strength of zonal winds - in green? - Going off the scale there!?

It can't get  more stronger even if it tried and it's only November. I would dread to think what winter would show!?

Again - i am convinced that it's because of the colder than average temperatures in the stratosphere which is driving the PV.

Here is the irony - La Nina winters are meant to be front loaded and it appears that the zonal winds will become exceptionally maybe record breaking strong again over the next week when this time last year as indicated by the red line on chart - we were actually going weaker than average: Look at the latest forecast for strength of zonal winds - in green? - Going off the scale there!?

It can't get  more stronger even if it tried and it's only November. I would dread to think what winter would show!?

Again - i am convinced that it's because of the colder than average temperatures in the stratosphere which is driving the PV.

 

 

Indeed a strengthening zonal  wind coupled with La Nina southerly high blocking could  introduce the return of the long fetch south westerly in the run up to Christmas ...the wrong type of long fetch wind direction...

Edited by user  19 November 2020 19:42:52  | Reason: Not specified

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Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius

 

Overcast and mild!? Winds still coming in from west - least it isn't raining.

Look at the bigger picture 

Ongoing poor output this morning, a well organised PV and +ve heights at mid latitides and over Europe - we will almost certainly entering December with a strongly +ve NAO arrangement. The early part of December was said to be the most promising period for wintry weather and the set-up could hardly be LESS promising.

Looking at the ECM monthly and it's dreadful for cold, potential for some very mild temps at times and flooding for the usual areas.

The blocks back in the far reaches on 00z...Now where have we seen that before....

It will probably stay there.   

In the more “realistic” time frame things look quite mobile and “average” with some rain, some sun, some wind, some frost, some mildness, some coolness and possibly little that is too noteworthy.

GEFS35 is still showing the potential for colder outbreaks in December. It is using yesterday's data but ECM30 also runs behind the pack I understand. 

(Select weekly charts here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-europe.aspx)

The glass-half-full brigade should look at http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 week2 which has cold air making a big move towards the Baltic and Scandi. Not the UK, yet ... On the parallel pptn chart the Atlantic is putting up resistance, resulting in rain for the UK, lots and lots of it in week 2.

GFS - Atlantic W-lies with LPs brushing past N Scotland to the middle of next week, after that stalling and hanging around NW of Ireland until Thu 3rd - Sun 6th when troughs start to run down from Iceland to N Germany. HP trying to develop over N Scandi, rather uncertainly, from Sun 29th. 

GEFS -temps similar to yesterday, up and down to Fri 27th after which just below norm to Sun 6th but with more variability than yesterday. More rain than yesterday too esp S & W, starting around Thu 26th and not dry spell after that.

ECM - keeps the LPs running across the N Atlantic after the middle of next week, positioning them further N than GFS and not stalling until close to Norway

Looking at both the 18z and 00z GFS both do indeed show a mobile pattern but it’s a cool mobile flow. The Scottish ski resorts should get a good base layer of wet snow above 1,500-2,000ft. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pennines saw some wet snow at times as well.

This set up as Brian eluded to in an earlier comment could well catch some out especially in the northern half of the UK.

Looking at the ECM monthly and it's dreadful for cold, potential for some very mild temps at times and flooding for the usual areas.

As usual the wider picture is not so clear cut. The EC 11-15day clusters do indeed suggest a +NAO driven westerly type but there are two chunky minorities that would deliver quite cold set-ups.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/11/21/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018112100_360.png

Looking at both the 18z and 00z GFS both do indeed show a mobile pattern but it’s a cool mobile flow. The Scottish ski resorts should get a good base layer of wet snow above 1,500-2,000ft. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pennines saw some wet snow at times as well.

This set up as Brian eluded to in an earlier comment could well catch some out especially in the northern half of the UK.

The tendency is however for these set-ups to shift North closer to verification. 

The glass-half-full brigade should look at http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 week2 which has cold air making a big move towards the Baltic and Scandi. Not the UK, yet ... On the parallel pptn chart the Atlantic is putting up resistance, resulting in rain for the UK, lots and lots of it in week 2.

GFS - Atlantic W-lies with LPs brushing past N Scotland to the middle of next week, after that stalling and hanging around NW of Ireland until Thu 3rd - Sun 6th when troughs start to run down from Iceland to N Germany. HP trying to develop over N Scandi, rather uncertainly, from Sun 29th. 

GEFS -temps similar to yesterday, up and down to Fri 27th after which just below norm to Sun 6th but with more variability than yesterday. More rain than yesterday too esp S & W, starting around Thu 26th and not dry spell after that.

ECM - keeps the LPs running across the N Atlantic after the middle of next week, positioning them further N than GFS and not stalling until close to Norway

Then again, the glass half empty brigade will note that temperatures remain above normal over most of Europe and substantially so over Northern Europe. Still early days, of course and open to change as always. And a definite cooling trend in week 2 which has been reasonably consistent on the wxmaps page.

Lots of sine waves on the GEFS 850HPa outlook today. Points to zonal and westerly dominated set ups, alternating between mild (very mild at times) and cool.  

Lots of sine waves on the GEFS 850HPa outlook today. Points to zonal and westerly dominated set ups, alternating between mild (very mild at times) and cool.  

To be honest I am not seeing many signs of very mild or very cold weather in the GEFS (or any other data) at the moment. Cool at times, mild at others. Possibly quite average overall but largely mobile (and westerly in the realistic timeframe).