a week or so ago this weekend looked potentially wintry... that was pushed back to maybe next week.

The reality is we look like being stuck in a barrage of west to south westerly winds of differing amplitude. interspersed by the occasional cool north westerly... No real prolonged dry spells in site, nor much frost likely either.

Not a great end to Autumn with all that was talked about.

Looks like wet ground and grey sky weather for the forseable...

yes though we have managed to record two frosts this Autumn. Quite a grim outlook sadly, nothing of note yet though to be fair it’s not winter proper for a couple of weeks 

4 Air frosts here so far this autumn, which is better than the whole of last winter. The local park is already flooded, and things look average. Avergae is good these days is it not.

Not even one air frost here yet this autumn. Late even by recent standards and things really are now getting pretty desperate! Hopefully this winter will hit the reset button and initiate another cluster of cold ones. Frankly it is looking increasingly unlikely but never say never.  

 

Not even one air frost here yet this autumn. Late even by recent standards and things really are now getting pretty desperate! Hopefully this winter will hit the reset button and initiate another cluster of cold ones. Frankly it is looking increasingly unlikely but never say never.  

We won’t know until winter is over Brian - and it hasn’t started yet has it? 😄☺️

 

We won’t know until winter is over Brian - and it hasn’t started yet has it? 😄☺️

I think we had winter here yesterday.  Sadly we seemed to have missed out the next two seasons and gone straight to autumn again...

I watch the birds fly south across the autumn sky
And one by one they disappear,
I wish that I was flying with them...

Seriously though, as you say, it is early days. The very start of winter is still essentially in FI in the model output.

As suggested the other day, the METO have dropped their settled outlook for the turn of the month into the first week of December. 

With teleconnections very poor, could we just see relentless zonality through all the winter months ? 

As suggested the other day, the METO have dropped their settled outlook for the turn of the month into the first week of December. 

With teleconnections very poor, could we just see relentless zonality through all the winter months ? 

You were right a decade ago about the "modern winter". Everything possible conspires against the UK getting a decent winter these days.

I never take any notice of the MO any more, especially when we all know that any suggestion of decent weather in FI is never going to materialise - they just put out eye candy at t+192 to get us excited until the guaranteed downgrades return us to grey, damp, mild gunk as usual. How I wish we could turn off the Atlantic jet or shove it down over Morocco! Here is the question - why does the PV so love Greenland and the north Atlantic - why can't it shove off to Siberia where it belongs?

 

I think we had winter here yesterday.  Sadly we seemed to have missed out the next two seasons and gone straight to autumn again...

I watch the birds fly south across the autumn sky
And one by one they disappear,
I wish that I was flying with them...

 

Seriously though, as you say, it is early days. The very start of winter is still essentially in FI in the model output.

I once wrote a full, weather-related parody of that on here 

Hopefully lost in the ether eternally (like those Carling pub runs showing snowmageddon at +384)

As suggested the other day, the METO have dropped their settled outlook for the turn of the month into the first week of December. 

Yes I think they were lagging a day or so in this instance, although it could have been because as usual ECM was blocking away happily.

  How I wish we could turn off the Atlantic jet or shove it down over Morocco! 

Quite frankly I think I'd rather move to Morocco and enjoy the sunshine rather than endure another winter of wind and rain. However, I'd be even more concerned if we'd just had a cold November like last year. 

 

Quite frankly I think I'd rather move to Morocco and enjoy the sunshine rather than endure another winter of wind and rain. However, I'd be even more concerned if we'd just had a cold November like last year. 

I obviously can't speak for anywhere other than my own neck of the woods, but aside from the final few days of the month I don't recall last November being especially cold at any point, at least not consistently. The last few days & nights were very frosty though with the frost not lifting much if at all here for two or three days at the very end of the month.

I've started making reanalysis charts available on TWO. Direct link is:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/reanalysis.aspx

Reanalysis charts are now available on TWO covering 1979 to 2019. More decades will be added in the next few days. The link is https://t.co/13YoOTWArx You can also go direct, for example https://t.co/n7gfCpfIDY There was never another day quite like that one! pic.twitter.com/IZb395ZNXn

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) November 20, 2020

ECM is teasing us again tonight. I won't believe any of it until and unless it gets to t+96.

The chart for 30th November does not promise cold weather for the UK at that point, but there is some possibility there:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

But we all know that it will disappear again in tomorrow's output.

 

I obviously can't speak for anywhere other than my own neck of the woods, but aside from the final few days of the month I don't recall last November being especially cold at any point, at least not consistently. The last few days & nights were very frosty though with the frost not lifting much if at all here for two or three days at the very end of the month.

For the Wirral (and we are renowned at being not very cold), Nov last year wasnt anything special compared to any other November. 

However - compared to this year - it was alot colder.  We had several frosts, and the last few days were sub5*c and frosty

Average temp was 6.3*c 

Lowest temp was -2.8*c

Highest 14*c

This year

Average temp  9.8*c

Lowest temp 2.1*c

Highest 17.2*c

Its like we're getting octobers results in November.  

As much as the charts provide entertainment, the reality for a couple of weeks now is High pressure to our south

As suggested the other day, the METO have dropped their settled outlook for the turn of the month into the first week of December. 

With teleconnections very poor, could we just see relentless zonality through all the winter months ? 

If you are Ian Brown then kudos to you. Over 10 years ago you were talking about the new modern winter regime that lay ahead and you stuck to your guns despite some very hostile posting and ridiculing from members over on netweather and on here I would imagine as well. 

 

If you are Ian Brown then kudos to you. Over 10 years ago you were talking about the new modern winter regime that lay ahead and you stuck to your guns despite some very hostile posting and ridiculing from members over on netweather and on here I would imagine as well. 

 

Heaven forbid they could both still be wrong

 

If you are Ian Brown then kudos to you. Over 10 years ago you were talking about the new modern winter regime that lay ahead and you stuck to your guns despite some very hostile posting and ridiculing from members over on netweather and on here I would imagine as well. 

 

The problem I had with what Ian said a decade or more ago on here is that for much of the time he was adamant that long-lasting spells of notable cold in this country such as those that we saw fairly commonly until the late 1980s simply could not happen again under any circumstances. That has not proved to be the case.

If one is being diplomatic about it, then for the most part he has been right. However, no-one can have forgotten that we had a month-long spell of severe cold in two successive winters a decade ago, some notable cold in early 2013 which culminated in an unusually cold March that year and then the Beast from the East at the end of Feb/start of March 2018, and other brief spells of cold earlier that winter (at least in my part of the world).

If one was to say that "modern era" factors have made the likelihood of cold weather happening somewhat less than in the past, then they would have a point. However, it is quite another for one to dismiss cold completely and try to say that it simply can't happen again in this country no matter what. The few aforementioned instances from the past decade most certainly prove that it can, even if it doesn't happen as often as it did a few decades back.

Apologies for being off-topic btw.

 

The problem I had with what Ian said a decade or more ago on here is that for much of the time he was adamant that long-lasting spells of notable cold in this country such as those that we saw fairly commonly until the late 1980s simply could not happen again under any circumstances. That has not proved to be the case.

If one is being diplomatic about it, then for the most part he has been right. However, no-one can have forgotten that we had a month-long spell of severe cold in two successive winters a decade ago, some notable cold in early 2013 which culminated in an unusually cold March that year and then the Beast from the East at the end of Feb/start of March 2018, and other brief spells of cold earlier that winter (at least in my part of the world).

If one was to say that "modern era" factors have made the likelihood of cold weather happening somewhat less than in the past, then they would have a point. However, it is quite another for one to dismiss cold completely and try to say that it simply can't happen again in this country no matter what. The few aforementioned instances from the past decade most certainly prove that it can, even if it doesn't happen as often as it did a few decades back.

Apologies for being off-topic btw.

I am not going to start writing winter off now (contrary to previous years), but as I've said many times in the past, relentless zonality is a tough beast to shift, and could be a long path to signficant cold.

That said, there are some tentative signs of some sort of blocking on ECM and (occasionally on and off) GFS. Truth is, no-one knows how winter is going to pan out but you can never go far wrong by saying largely Zonal and mild.