TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
21 June 2020 20:08:16
“Record warm first half, just like 2007” has an ominous ring to it.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Bertwhistle
22 June 2020 09:57:09

Still 14.6°C to 21st, prov.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
ARTzeman
22 June 2020 11:04:14

Met Office Hadley         14.6c         Anomaly       0.6c Provisional to 21st.


Metcheck                      14.02c       Anomaly       -0.13c


Netweather                   14.56c       Anomaly       0.47c


Peasedown St John      14.66c       Anomaly       0.06c 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
23 June 2020 10:30:01

Met Office Hadley             14.6c        Anomaly           0.6c. Provisional to 22nd. 


Metcheck                          14.7c        Anomaly           0.03c


Netweather                       14.66c      Anomaly           0.57c


Peasedown St John         14.75c       Anomaly           0.15c  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2020 13:49:01

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Met Office Hadley             14.6c        Anomaly           0.6c. Provisional to 22nd. 


Metcheck                          14.7c        Anomaly           0.03c


Netweather                       14.66c      Anomaly           0.57c


Peasedown St John         14.75c       Anomaly           0.15c  



The Hadley warm bias seems to have diminished the last few days.


On its way upwards from now on as the nights warm up.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
ARTzeman
24 June 2020 10:02:32

Met Office Hadley           14.4c          Anomaly       0.8c.    Provisional to 23rd.


Metcheck                        14.43c        Anomaly       0.28c


Netweather                     14.89c        Anomaly       0.8c


Peasedown St John       14.8c          Anomaly       0.2c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bertwhistle
24 June 2020 10:25:36

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Met Office Hadley           14.4c          Anomaly       0.8c.    Provisional to 23rd.


Metcheck                        14.43c        Anomaly       0.28c


Netweather                     14.89c        Anomaly       0.8c


Peasedown St John       14.8c          Anomaly       0.2c.



I've got Hadley down as 14.8 to 23rd Art.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Bertwhistle
25 June 2020 11:14:16

15.1°C to 24th


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
ARTzeman
25 June 2020 11:31:35

Metcheck       14.79c     Anomaly       0.67c


Netweather    15.22c    Anomaly       1.13c


Pasdown St John  15.54c  Anomaly  0.94c 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
26 June 2020 09:50:30

Met Office Hadley            15.4c          Anomaly         1.3c


Metcheck                         15.08c        Anomaly         0.94c


Netweather                      15.57c        Anomaly         1.48c


Peasedown St John        15.58c       Anomaly          0.98c.      






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2020 09:58:07

Getting close to the point where rest of year needs to be less than 1.0C above average to beat the annual record. We need a decently warm July and August so there's not too much reliance on another warm Autumn.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Global Warming
26 June 2020 10:05:57

Big shift coming up in the CET for the final days of the month. After a hot day today it may still be slightly above average tomorrow. But the final three days of the month will see the temperature below average. Monday in particular looks quite cool.


Best guess at the moment is the CET ends up around 15.4C.


First few days of July look close to average. Signs of something warmer again from Monday 6 July.

Saint Snow
26 June 2020 11:02:28

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Big shift coming up in the CET for the final days of the month. After a hot day today it may still be slightly above average tomorrow. But the final three days of the month will see the temperature below average. Monday in particular looks quite cool.


Best guess at the moment is the CET ends up around 15.4C.


First few days of July look close to average. Signs of something warmer again from Monday 6 July.



 


Would then appreciate a -0.5c adjustment




Martin
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2020 17:45:07

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Big shift coming up in the CET for the final days of the month. After a hot day today it may still be slightly above average tomorrow. But the final three days of the month will see the temperature below average. Monday in particular looks quite cool.


Best guess at the moment is the CET ends up around 15.4C.


First few days of July look close to average. Signs of something warmer again from Monday 6 July.


 That sounds good for my guess!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Whether Idle
26 June 2020 20:22:39

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Big shift coming up in the CET for the final days of the month. After a hot day today it may still be slightly above average tomorrow. But the final three days of the month will see the temperature below average. Monday in particular looks quite cool.


Best guess at the moment is the CET ends up around 15.4C.


First few days of July look close to average. Signs of something warmer again from Monday 6 July.



Yes GW, its looking like something more akin to 15.3, possibly. July hoves into view and we ponder what it will bring...


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
ARTzeman
27 June 2020 09:57:49

M<et Office Hadley           15.6c         Anomaly        1.5c  Provisional to 26th


Metcheck                          15.28c       Anomaly         1.13c


Netweather                       15.8c         Anomaly         1.71c


Peasedown St John          15.72c       Anomaly         1.12c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bertwhistle
27 June 2020 10:15:35

Thursday's provisional CET equals the record for the month set at 23.0 on 3rd June 1947.


Chances are the figure will be adjusted downwards, however; but it will still rank among the best, and compete with the date record I think (there were a bunch of 22+ days at the end of June 76).


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Bertwhistle
27 June 2020 10:24:23

This MetO link on the HadCET lead page:


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_record_breakers.html


needs updating.


The 28 June 76 max CET of 30.3 was beaten last year (30.6 on 29th June)


Incidentally, the July max record also went on 25th last year (34.1), so that also needs updating from the 33.2 stated, also in 1976. 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
SJV
  • SJV
  • Advanced Member
27 June 2020 10:26:52

Originally Posted by: Caz 


 That sounds good for my guess!  



Likewise! Not too far off 


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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
27 June 2020 14:25:42
Nearly at the halfway stage of the year, and here are the scores on the doors from Hadley:

Averages so far this year:-
Average CET to May: 8.46
Normal CET to May: 6.46
Anomaly to May: 2.00
Provisional CET anomaly (up to 26th June): 1.92

Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:

- The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 10.95, which is 1.44 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 0.98 for the remainder of this year

- The lowest annual mean CET ever recorded was 6.86, which is -2.65 lower than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be lower than -6.98 for the remainder of this year

I think we can discount the cold CET record. Warm record is 2020’s for the taking. Really needs a strong summer season.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
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