“Record warm first half, just like 2007” has an ominous ring to it.

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Still 14.6°C to 21st, prov.

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Met Office Hadley         14.6c         Anomaly       0.6c Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                      14.02c       Anomaly       -0.13c

Netweather                   14.56c       Anomaly       0.47c

Peasedown St John      14.66c       Anomaly       0.06c 

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Met Office Hadley             14.6c        Anomaly           0.6c. Provisional to 22nd. 

Metcheck                          14.7c        Anomaly           0.03c

Netweather                       14.66c      Anomaly           0.57c

Peasedown St John         14.75c       Anomaly           0.15c  

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Met Office Hadley             14.6c        Anomaly           0.6c. Provisional to 22nd. 

Metcheck                          14.7c        Anomaly           0.03c

Netweather                       14.66c      Anomaly           0.57c

Peasedown St John         14.75c       Anomaly           0.15c  

The Hadley warm bias seems to have diminished the last few days.

On its way upwards from now on as the nights warm up.

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Met Office Hadley           14.4c          Anomaly       0.8c.    Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                        14.43c        Anomaly       0.28c

Netweather                     14.89c        Anomaly       0.8c

Peasedown St John       14.8c          Anomaly       0.2c.

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Met Office Hadley           14.4c          Anomaly       0.8c.    Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                        14.43c        Anomaly       0.28c

Netweather                     14.89c        Anomaly       0.8c

Peasedown St John       14.8c          Anomaly       0.2c.

I've got Hadley down as 14.8 to 23rd Art.

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15.1°C to 24th

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Metcheck       14.79c     Anomaly       0.67c

Netweather    15.22c    Anomaly       1.13c

Pasdown St John  15.54c  Anomaly  0.94c 

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Met Office Hadley            15.4c          Anomaly         1.3c

Metcheck                         15.08c        Anomaly         0.94c

Netweather                      15.57c        Anomaly         1.48c

Peasedown St John        15.58c       Anomaly          0.98c.      

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Getting close to the point where rest of year needs to be less than 1.0C above average to beat the annual record. We need a decently warm July and August so there's not too much reliance on another warm Autumn.

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Big shift coming up in the CET for the final days of the month. After a hot day today it may still be slightly above average tomorrow. But the final three days of the month will see the temperature below average. Monday in particular looks quite cool.

Best guess at the moment is the CET ends up around 15.4C.

First few days of July look close to average. Signs of something warmer again from Monday 6 July.

Big shift coming up in the CET for the final days of the month. After a hot day today it may still be slightly above average tomorrow. But the final three days of the month will see the temperature below average. Monday in particular looks quite cool.

Best guess at the moment is the CET ends up around 15.4C.

First few days of July look close to average. Signs of something warmer again from Monday 6 July.

 

Would then appreciate a -0.5c adjustment

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Big shift coming up in the CET for the final days of the month. After a hot day today it may still be slightly above average tomorrow. But the final three days of the month will see the temperature below average. Monday in particular looks quite cool.

Best guess at the moment is the CET ends up around 15.4C.

First few days of July look close to average. Signs of something warmer again from Monday 6 July.

 That sounds good for my guess!  

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Big shift coming up in the CET for the final days of the month. After a hot day today it may still be slightly above average tomorrow. But the final three days of the month will see the temperature below average. Monday in particular looks quite cool.

Best guess at the moment is the CET ends up around 15.4C.

First few days of July look close to average. Signs of something warmer again from Monday 6 July.

Yes GW, its looking like something more akin to 15.3, possibly. July hoves into view and we ponder what it will bring...

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M<et Office Hadley           15.6c         Anomaly        1.5c  Provisional to 26th

Metcheck                          15.28c       Anomaly         1.13c

Netweather                       15.8c         Anomaly         1.71c

Peasedown St John          15.72c       Anomaly         1.12c. 

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Thursday's provisional CET equals the record for the month set at 23.0 on 3rd June 1947.

Chances are the figure will be adjusted downwards, however; but it will still rank among the best, and compete with the date record I think (there were a bunch of 22+ days at the end of June 76).

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This MetO link on the HadCET lead page:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_record_breakers.html

needs updating.

The 28 June 76 max CET of 30.3 was beaten last year (30.6 on 29th June)

Incidentally, the July max record also went on 25th last year (34.1), so that also needs updating from the 33.2 stated, also in 1976. 

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 That sounds good for my guess!  

Likewise! Not too far off 

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Nearly at the halfway stage of the year, and here are the scores on the doors from Hadley:

Averages so far this year:-
Average CET to May: 8.46
Normal CET to May: 6.46
Anomaly to May: 2.00
Provisional CET anomaly (up to 26th June): 1.92

Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:

- The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 10.95, which is 1.44 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 0.98 for the remainder of this year

- The lowest annual mean CET ever recorded was 6.86, which is -2.65 lower than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be lower than -6.98 for the remainder of this year

I think we can discount the cold CET record. Warm record is 2020’s for the taking. Really needs a strong summer season.

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