Met Office Hadley           14.5c         Anomaly      0.6c   Provisional to 19th

Metcheck                        13.84c       Anomaly      -0.30c

Netweather                     14.38c       Anomaly      0.29c

Peasedown St John       14.55c       Anomaly       -0.05c.  

We need a June CET of 15C or more for the first half of 2020 to be the second warmest first six months of the year on record. To be the warmest first half of the year on record we would need a CET of 16C or more which is most unlikely at this point.

Warmest first halves of the year in the CET series

2007  9.70C
2014  9.52C
1846  9.52C
1822  9.48C
2017  9.47C

Sorry very late but here are the June predictions

Table

I don't think I've ever been at such an extreme end of the prediction range before, not that there's much of a range of predictions this month anyway. I may be bang on correct at this moment but next week's warm/hot spell will scupper any chance of me doing well this month.

Glad to see Moomin pitching in and putting his money where his mouth is :)

Thanks GW

A very warm final third of June to come. I haven't been doing my tracker this month as too busy.

However, based on the current CET being around 14.5C the forecast temperatures for the final 10 days of June suggest the CET will rise by around 1.3-1.4C compared to where is now. So a finishing CET between 15.5C and 16.0C looks likely.  Best guess at the moment would be 15.6C to 15.7C. So not quite as warm as June 2017 and June 2018 which both reached 16C. But not far off.

Hence the winner this month is likely to come from one of the top 4 in the prediction table. 

It also means we will likely get close to the record CET for the first six months of the year. Probably finishing just behind 2007.

Peak of the CET daily figures this week likely to be on Thursday. Very warm nights and days. My current estimate for Thursday is a CET of 21.75C. Current record for 25 June is 21.6C.

Absolute maximum temperature date records look unlikely this week but not impossible. From 23-28 June the date records are all held by 1976. Running from 32.2C on the 23rd to 35.6C on the 28th. Best chance of a record is on Thursday where the record is 33.5C. Current BBC forecast going for 32C on that day in London. So I think we probably fall a bit short.

Think CET rounds to 14.6°C now- the estimated daily values are in but the mean to 20th not in their table yet.

A mean CET for the last 10 days of 18° would give us a final of about 15.7 but then there are those downjustments.

Met Office Hadley         14.6c        Anomaly        0.6c  Provisional to 20th

Metcheck                      13.97c      Anomaly        -0.18c

Netweather                   14.48c      Anomaly        0.39cc

Peasedown St John      14.71c      Anomaly        0.11c.  

I concede though that I am way out on my CET guess.

Still 14.6°C to 21st, prov.

Met Office Hadley         14.6c         Anomaly       0.6c Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                      14.02c       Anomaly       -0.13c

Netweather                   14.56c       Anomaly       0.47c

Peasedown St John      14.66c       Anomaly       0.06c 

Met Office Hadley             14.6c        Anomaly           0.6c. Provisional to 22nd. 

Metcheck                          14.7c        Anomaly           0.03c

Netweather                       14.66c      Anomaly           0.57c

Peasedown St John         14.75c       Anomaly           0.15c  

The Hadley warm bias seems to have diminished the last few days.

On its way upwards from now on as the nights warm up.

Met Office Hadley           14.4c          Anomaly       0.8c.    Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                        14.43c        Anomaly       0.28c

Netweather                     14.89c        Anomaly       0.8c

Peasedown St John       14.8c          Anomaly       0.2c.

I've got Hadley down as 14.8 to 23rd Art.

15.1°C to 24th

Metcheck       14.79c     Anomaly       0.67c

Netweather    15.22c    Anomaly       1.13c

Pasdown St John  15.54c  Anomaly  0.94c 

Met Office Hadley            15.4c          Anomaly         1.3c

Metcheck                         15.08c        Anomaly         0.94c

Netweather                      15.57c        Anomaly         1.48c

Peasedown St John        15.58c       Anomaly          0.98c.      

Getting close to the point where rest of year needs to be less than 1.0C above average to beat the annual record. We need a decently warm July and August so there's not too much reliance on another warm Autumn.

Big shift coming up in the CET for the final days of the month. After a hot day today it may still be slightly above average tomorrow. But the final three days of the month will see the temperature below average. Monday in particular looks quite cool.

Best guess at the moment is the CET ends up around 15.4C.

First few days of July look close to average. Signs of something warmer again from Monday 6 July.

Would then appreciate a -0.5c adjustment

Yes GW, its looking like something more akin to 15.3, possibly. July hoves into view and we ponder what it will bring...