Haishan makes landfall, but weakens to a Cat 3

 

Lashing it down here on Amami Oshima as #typhoon #Haishen closes in pic.twitter.com/2vytxmJagB

— James Reynolds (@EarthUncutTV) September 6, 2020

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That central tropical Atlantic storm has finally made it to TD17, and forecast to be TS probably by the time you read this. It should be named Paulette, if it isn't beaten to that title by the disturbance a bit further east threatening the Cabo Verde Islands and with 90% odds of development.

TD17 track forecast to be well away from lad to the N of the Caribbean island arc. It will be 9-10 days in advance of the previous earliest named P-storm in 2005, a year which didn't stop until Zeta on Dec 30th.

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TD17 doesn’t look to have much potential on current modelling. There’s also quite a lot of dryer air pockets mid/upper levels this year which will potentially moderate strengthening algorithms. What will be 18 however already looks more organised and the Cape Verde Islands will likely need a TS watch by this evening. This system will track due west.

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Things are going to get pretty crowded out there by the end of this week. pic.twitter.com/UyLNk6Qglt

— Steve Copertino (@TheSteveCop) September 7, 2020

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Odds on for a record breaking season now.. could 2005 be under threat?

There are only 5 more names left of which one is likely to be used later today, and another in a couple of days time. We still have the better part of 3 months left of this season ;)

The amount of EPS members that now have #Paulette nearing the Southeast CONUS in the extended range is certainly higher than previous runs. This really goes to show what a chaotic pattern we're in right now. pic.twitter.com/MolROBBtpg

— Steve Copertino (@TheSteveCop) September 7, 2020

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So TD 17 has become TS Paulette and despite the post above, is not predicted by NHC to affect the US Coast though one is left with the feeling that anything could happen in this confused season.

TD18 is now TS Rene and forecast to move NE and become a full-blown(?) hurricane in a couple of days. Presumably this is the one that's been showing up on the GFS N Atlantic charts.

Not shown on the NHC chart but reviewed here is a further disturbance emerging from Africa  at low latitude which may run across to affect the Caribbean
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/09/tropical-storm-paulette-forms-in-atlantic-earliest-p-named-storm-on-record/ 

It looks as if the 2005 record will fall by a large margin.

 

Also in the link, a review of Maysak & Haichen  and what ithey're doing to the jetstream (speeded up to 5 standard deviations above average) and the crazy temp variations in the western US

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Looking at latest GFS models from N. Pole Down it appears that there is at least two tropical storm/Hurricane approaching close to the eastern seaboard and running up east coast:

+141z (16th Sept)

 

Another much closer at +300z. (23rd Sept)

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2 named storms and 4 areas of interest - how confusing can you get? Paulette has now got an upgraded forecast of cat 1/2 hurricaneas it approaches Bermuda, while Rene's prospects are fading

Some good maps of the current situation and forecast tracks at
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/09/la-nina-has-begun-could-bring-more-landfalling-hurricanes-to-u-s/

 

 

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2 named storms and 4 areas of interest - how confusing can you get? Paulette has now got an upgraded forecast of cat 1/2 hurricaneas it approaches Bermuda, while Rene's prospects are fading

Some good maps of the current situation and forecast tracks at
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/09/la-nina-has-begun-could-bring-more-landfalling-hurricanes-to-u-s/

 

 

Paulette, which wasn't forecast to become a hurricane is now forecast to become a cat 2 hurricane  and make a direct hit to Bermuda. 

Latest on Rene: - All changing directions and strengths every update!

Interesting Track: 

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Florida perhaps but quite likely the G.M states look likely to be in the firing line over the coming days from that system just over the Bahamas. 

Tropical Depression 19 has formed in the northwestern Bahamas and is forecast to become a tropical storm in next couple of days. The next Atlantic name on the list is #Sally. The current record for earliest 18th Atlantic named storm is Stan on October 2, 2005. #hurricane pic.twitter.com/6OjYLoWHqM

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) September 11, 2020

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Six - count 'em, six - disturbances of one kind or another in the Atlantic.

Rene has lost its way and should die shortly;
Paulette has found favourable territory and having savaged Bermuda will be heading along the Gulf Stream in our direction still likely to have hurricane status;
TD19 has formed very rapidly off Florida and is forecast to head across the Gulf of Mexico to New Orleans  (official forecast is for "near-hurricane" but given its speed of development I'd bet on removing that "near");
That disturbance off Africa which has been promising at 90% for some days is still to wake up;
And a couple of minor centres which could still spring into life

By contrast, only one site of any consequence in Eastern and Central Pacific

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Is it just me...

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Now named TS Sally and expected to become a hurricane now as it strengthens over the gulf before hitting the Louisiana coast! I fear New Orleans could be in the firing line - maybe a direct hit!?

 

 

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It's difficult to keep up! As a measure of just how active the present season is 

With the Atlantic hurricane season just two days past the climatological half-way point, we’ve already had 18 named storms, five hurricanes, and one intense hurricane. Only seven Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1851 have had more named storms during an entire season. According to Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach, the averages for this point in the season are seven named storms, three hurricanes, and one intense hurricane.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/09/sally-could-hit-between-new-orleans-and-mobile-at-hurricane-strength/

For a run-through

Paulette is expected to do a sharp recurve over Bermuda and head towards the UK. At this time yesterday it was forecast to head for Greenland but the latest GFS shows it dying in mid-Atlantic - but Thomas Schafferwahtsit on BBC last night was raising the possibility of it getting close to the UK

Rene is dying in mid Atlantic despite early promise of development

Sally has developed out of TD18 (see above post and the link I've given). Some forecast put it at cat 3(none less than cat 1; can't think why the models were so reluctant to predict a hurricane until yesterday) and uncomfortably close to New Orleans; may just landfall a little more east. The link above predicts very heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast as Sally is si slow-moving.

TD20  is an upgrade of the disturbance off Africa. NHC has it developing as a hurricane quite quickly (that would be three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes) but running NW into open seas; at one stage it was thought to be likely to menace the Caribbean on a southern track

There are also two more disturbances, one off Africa behind TD20 which NHC thinks will develop (60% in the next five days) and one in the Gulf of Mexico (NHC doesn't rate this though the link above is more wary)

 

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but Thomas Schafferwahtsit on BBC last night was raising the possibility of it getting close to the UK

 

The Schaff has finally had his hair cut as well!

I thought his explanation of the jet stream interaction with Paulette was brilliant but probably over the heads of most viewers

TD20 could well be the monster storm we have been waiting for all season, so far lots of useless storms apart from Laura

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Before Paullete there is this:

Honestly think it could go subtropical or tropical. The conditions are perfect despite the cold SSTs.

 

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Before Paullete there is this:

Honestly think it could go subtropical or tropical. The conditions are perfect despite the cold SSTs.

 

Erm? You mean warm SST's - Look at the N. Atlantic it's perhaps the warmest it's every been!?

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Development continues as predicted in yesterday's post, but with upgrade for TD20, now expected to be a major hurricane in 2-3 days' time in mid-Atlantic; and Sally to cause damage mostly by virtue of rainfall (10+") and storm surge (up to 11') though the re-built levees after Katrina should withstand this.

 

 

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