DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
26 August 2020 06:10:55

Good general review of season to date as well as latest news - mentions typhoon Bavi about to damage N Korea.


https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/laura-expected-to-make-landfall-in-texas-or-louisiana-as-major-hurricane/


Laura forecast to be cat2/3 on landfall; main damage expect to be a storm surge up to 30 miles inland (not stated, but surely this is up a local estuary and not general?)


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
tallyho_83
26 August 2020 09:35:52

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Good general review of season to date as well as latest news - mentions typhoon Bavi about to damage N Korea.


https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/laura-expected-to-make-landfall-in-texas-or-louisiana-as-major-hurricane/


Laura forecast to be cat2/3 on landfall; main damage expect to be a storm surge up to 30 miles inland (not stated, but surely this is up a local estuary and not general?)



Laura = Strong Cat 3 - winds of 120mph upon landfall.



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


seringador
26 August 2020 10:01:10

Originally Posted by: seringador 


 


That will Change soon the SST are favorable, the amount of moisture and the lack of dry air intrusion in the Laura's Path, should give a safe way to strenghning .


Satélite Laura


Notice that the cyclonic curveture is there despite the Cuba mountains Impact and its sllides just a few 100miles futher south the system Will organize quickly and keep up the Pace for a potential Cat 3 or Higher...


Let's wait...



it could well rreeach cat4 by landfall


 


Extremes
Max Temp: 40.2ºC (03.08.2018)
Min Temp: -1.1ºC ( 03.01.2021)
Porto 86m and Campeã 820m (Marão 1414m)
@planoclima
The Beast from the East
26 August 2020 11:00:48


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
26 August 2020 11:55:05

Laura's eye opening


 




"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
26 August 2020 13:26:51

NHC now has Laura reaching Category 4 by landfall. Extremely dangerous situation


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/261150.shtml


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/091953_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


Flight level winds were 104kt earlier today. A recent Hurricane Hunter pass sampled 140mph (122kt) winds at flight level in the NE quadrant suggesting continued intensification as forecast. The winds are currently strongest in the NE quadrant of the storm.

doctormog
26 August 2020 15:53:29
By the sounds of the NHC update the storm surge is going to be a very serious issue.
Gandalf The White
26 August 2020 16:16:37

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

By the sounds of the NHC update the storm surge is going to be a very serious issue.


Yes, an appalling forecast for anyone living in the area.


The update says the storm surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland, never mind the winds, waves and torrential rainfall. "Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage..."


 


I hope people have taken note and are evacuating; and are insured. It sounds like many people in the affected area will have nothing to return to after it has moved away.


😮☹️


 


Edit: here's the storm surge forecast:


 


https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1298638836197548035/photo/1


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Retron
26 August 2020 17:12:25

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


Edit: here's the storm surge forecast:


 


https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1298638836197548035/photo/1


 



15-20ft at the highest. For comparison, the infamous 1953 floods here had 18 feet at its peak:


"he wind was recorded 126mph at Costa Hill in Scotland. All of these elements funnelled those high tides southward toward the narrow (and shallow) English Channel, causing the swell to rise even further. The storm surge was recorded at 5.6 metres (18.4ft) at its peak."


Leysdown, north Kent
The Beast from the East
26 August 2020 19:11:35


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
marco 79
26 August 2020 19:19:42
Huge squall line now evident across the area way ahead of the landfall time...
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
The Beast from the East
26 August 2020 19:22:40


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
26 August 2020 20:02:15


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
seringador
26 August 2020 22:08:30

Gavelston on Laura's way


Extremes
Max Temp: 40.2ºC (03.08.2018)
Min Temp: -1.1ºC ( 03.01.2021)
Porto 86m and Campeã 820m (Marão 1414m)
@planoclima
picturesareme
27 August 2020 00:36:29
Almost a cat 5 now with 150mph sustained winds now.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
27 August 2020 06:38:04

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Almost a cat 5 now with 150mph sustained winds now.


I must admit that I didn't expect this much intensification a few days ago - but a lot of professional forecasters were also struggling to catch up. The storm surge looks like being the most life-threatening feature - when the NHC describes it as 'unsurvivable' you know it's really bad!


Lots of maps and comparison with Rita in 2005 here
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/hurricane-laura-intensifies-catastrophic-wind-and-storm-surge-expected/


And we won't have seen the last of it . Laura manages to re-intensify from TD to TS status when it has crossed the US and emerges on to the Atlantic Sun/Mon 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/031757.shtml?cone#contents


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
The Beast from the East
27 August 2020 08:13:39

The legend Josh managed to get the eye again!


 




"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
27 August 2020 08:15:02


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
27 August 2020 15:52:59

Laura still just about a hurricane despite being overland for over 12 hours


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
tallyho_83
27 August 2020 18:09:43

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Laura still just about a hurricane despite being overland for over 12 hours



It was a strong Cat 4 storm with winds of 150mph upon landfall - Given it's the 5th largest storm/hurricane in history to make landfall on the USA coastline I am surprised there isn't much more discussion and media coverage on this!?


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Users browsing this topic

Ads