I had considered that but controlled myself, David! Would have been like a λ to the slaughter....

R

I've heard all these puns before. Can't somebody think of a nu one?

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I've heard all these puns before. Can't somebody think of a nu one?

A mu-ted response would have been better

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Eta has got its skates on and is expected to cross Florida and out into the Atlantic today, declining to TD fairly soon; Theta still menacing the Canaries but likely to give them  miss in the end though may hit Madeira; new system n the Caribbean developing nicely. I'd be surprised if it wasn't name by this time tomorrow.

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It occurs to me that they misnamed Eta. I know it’s not in the correct sequence but ‘Donald’ would have been more apt: going nowhere fast and creating mayhem.

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A mu-ted response would have been better

Very good. I did skip one, admittedly. 

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... new system n the Caribbean developing nicely. I'd be surprised if it wasn't name by this time tomorrow.

Well, I have to admit to surprise, but at least the NHC probability of it becoming named storm is up to 90%. 

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/filter/?category_name=&term=&format=post-format-standard includes reports from some models that it will become a major hurricane and threaten the area already devastated by Eta in Nicaragua.

I've put a note in the Forum Arms that typhoon Goni has damaged communications in the Philippines to the extent that call centres there are still struggling - personal experience with HSBC chatline.

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GFS has had a cat 2 hurricane over recent runs as it hits Nicaragua.

Iota could be a Cat5, there is nothing that would prevent that from happening.

TCs are stochastic though so internal dynamics will determine whether that happens (i.e its impossible to know).

But I'd be amazed if this doesn't get to at least a Cat 3

 

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Iota could be a Cat5, there is nothing that would prevent that from happening.

TCs are stochastic though so internal dynamics will determine whether that happens (i.e its impossible to know).

But I'd be amazed if this doesn't get to at least a Cat 3

 

Very track dependent. A group of tracks take Iota very close to the Nicaraguan/Honduras coast.

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Note the HWRF and several GEFS members keep Iota off the coast of Honduras and take it towards Mexico. Such a track will maintain or increase strength of an already major storm by then.

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A nice view of Theta at the moment 👌

https://en.sat24.com/en/mo 

Iota now named and on course to become major hurricane before landfall in Nicaragua - they're still clearing up after Eta, and Iota looks asif it's heading for more populated regions with 2-" rain and 100mph winds.  and then some - they could really do without this second bashing. Meteorologically, it will be interesting to see if (as some models suggest) it manages to cross C America and emerge as a zombie storm on the Pacific.

Vamco due to attack Vietnam as cat 1 (it was cat 2 as it passed the Philippines and is currently cat 4)

Alicia, the first named storm of the S Hemisphere season is a few hundred miles S of Sri Lanka. Photo at https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/11/hurricane-iota-expected-to-strengthen-to-major-hurricane-ahead-of-landfall/ 

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#Iota continues to rapidly intensify and is forecast to reach Category 4 intensity before landfall. If that forecast verifies, it would be only 2nd Atlantic #hurricane to reach Category 4 intensity this late in the calendar year on record. Other is Lenny (1999). pic.twitter.com/4C1QE8D1He

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) November 15, 2020

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I'm not convinced Iota still is only 90mph sustained. It's a beast, and satellite imaging shows it to be very organised with a nice eye - i think it's probably already a Cat 3... i await eagerly with anticipation the next NHC update.

 

https://en.sat24.com/en/ama

 

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IOTA HAS RAPIDLY 
STRENGTHENED INTO A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that Iota 
now has maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (225 km/h) with higher 
gusts. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 935 mb (27.61 
inches). The updated intensity will be reflected in the next 
advisory which will be issued by 400 AM EST.

Iota has explosively deepened 26 mb during the past 6 hours and has 
rapidly intensified an incredible 35 kt during that same time.

now 145mph winds and central pressure is 933mb

Should get to Cat 5. Devastating impacts for such a poor country like Nicaragua

Lets hope Trump provides military and financial support

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This inner core lightning burst episode w/ #Iota is just jaw-dropping & has only grown more impressive since the last recon mission ended.

Fwiw, #Iota is the most electrified hurricane I've seen since at least #Dorian (2019) near its peak and that was a 185 mph/910mb category 5. pic.twitter.com/5SuiPnH2A3

— Eric Webb (@webberweather) November 16, 2020

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I'm not convinced Iota still is only 90mph sustained. It's a beast, and satellite imaging shows it to be very organised with a nice eye - i think it's probably already a Cat 3... i await eagerly with anticipation the next NHC update.

 

https://en.sat24.com/en/ama

 

Now sustained winds of 155mph - hurricane plane currently investigating so could be even stronger on next update. Viewed from a far this is a beauty though sadly not for those in its path.

NOAA have this as Cat 5 now.

Winds 160mph and 917mb.

Forecast to strengthen further before landfall:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 13.5N  82.0W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 13.7N  83.2W  145 KT 165 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 14.0N  84.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/0000Z 14.1N  86.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  18/1200Z 13.9N  88.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED